RADIO
I knew I should have left well enough alone last night, but lock was too far away, and the longer I sat at work, the more lineups I talked myself into. That was sub-optimal, to say the least, as it would have taken me a day and a half to punt mid lane to be able to fit double adcs, which was the nuts in my DK contest.
I shouldn't let that bother me because tonight I think almost anything is on the table. With two close matches that could both score very well, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see more unique winners with three teams represented. Sound like fun? Alright, then lest get to it.
Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Tuesday, January 26th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: Royal Never Give UP (-195) vs. Victory 5 (+140)
RNG enter this matchup undefeated and on top of the standing, but they have only faced one playoff team thus far, and that was a reeling SNG squad. V5 has one loss, but that was to the top team in the league in WE. Most recently, they rolled over RW with the B squad starting in Trigger and Aodi. Last summer, we saw V5 roll over RNG with a quick 2-0, but Royal has made some upgrades around the map, but will they be enough to hold off V5.
V5 has better early game numbers than RNG, and they have been opting into the cross-map trade, getting 82% of rift heralds, 91% of first turrets, but only 36% of first drakes. V5 translates this into an average gold lead at 15 of over 1300 gold. Royal has better overall drake and baron numbers and holds a substantial lead in vision. Royal has a slightly better farm and gold generation numbers, and I think that can give them an edge.
In the OMG series, we saw RNG give over first blood in both games and come from behind to secure that sweep. RNG will have a more challenging time doing so against V5 than they did versus the likes of OMG. OMG didn't have the star power to stand up to the New Age Estars of RNG.
V5 only gives up 16.7 deaths in their losses thus far, but if this match plays out like I think, we could see another big game out of RNG. If RNG surrenders the early lead to V5 and cannot complete the comeback, I believe full stacking V5 will be the optimal route. RNG give up 20 deaths in their losses thus far this split, so if we see V5 with an early lead, RNG trying to fight their way back in could make V5 stacks the best play. On a day where I don't think anyone sweep finding the bloodiest outcome will be the path to victory.
I like V5 here; these undefeated LPL teams will fall eventually. The league is too competitive for them to go the whole split without losing a match here and there. I want to be off them before the loss comes to be ahead of the curve. V5's good early game should give them the edge in the matchup, but Royal will start on the blue side and have an excellent late-game if V5 cannot close. I think it's pretty reasonable to split your exposure here.
Top V5 Plays:
- Weiwei - JNG - leads the team in KP and sits third in kill share.
- Y4 - ADC - Leads the team in KS and sits fourth in KP% by a narrow margin. Carries some sub risk, but the revenge narrative may still exist even after several seasons.
- Mole - MID - second in both kill metrics.
- Ppgod - SUP - church is in session.
Top RNG Plays:
- Gala - ADC - leads his team in both kill metrics.
- Ming - SUP - sits right behind his adc in KP%.
- Wei - JNG - third in both metrics and plays more for his laners than himself.
- Cryin- MID - tough call for the last spot in the stack, likely depends on who you're stacking. BLG, I'll take Biubiu and Cryin, but if it's LNG, I'll take Icon and Xiaohu.
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6:00 AM: LNG (-195) vs. BLG (+130)
BLG is gaining steam, and I, for one, love to see it. They finished off Rare Atom in a nice little 2-0 after struggling quite a bit in game one to close out. LNG were riding high after their win over IG, but after losing to WE, they will be looking to get back on their feet. This line is already on the move as of Monday morning, and it's tightening up, adding some value to the BLG side. Let's dive in and see what's up.
This jungle matchup is one I'm very much looking forward to, and I'm always looking forward to my boy Meteor hitting the rift. BLG has struggle to transition early leads through the mid and late-game into victories. They cleaned up some of their draft issues in the grudge match with Rare Atom, allowing Aiming to carry through to the end.
BLG and LNG are a bit opposed when it comes to the early game. BLG has eschewed the rift herald to establish bot priority, allowing them to begin stacking drakes. LNG has emphasized the herald and first turret, which has given them a better gold differential at 15 than BLG. BLG has the edge in total drakes, as well as baron percentage. LNG has an advantage in vision, and that should help them contend BLG when it comes to these monster objectives.
Well, I told you that the first series was almost too close to call, and this one isn't much easier. BLG have better gold generation, while LNG have had better CSM. BLG have better damage output, both teams are close early, but I think BLG have cleaned up some of their draft issue, which had lead to them struggling late. I like BLG here, but I expect them to be popular as a close underdog coming in off a win. LNG coming off the 2-0 loss to WE will take some of the luster they had gained over IG. These teams are over 18 deaths in their losses thus far, and indeed nothing is off the table today.
Top BLG Plays:
- Meteor - JNG - that's my boy, second in both kill metrics.
- Zeka - MID - leads the team in KP%
- Aiming - ADC - #1 in kill share
- Biubiu - TOP - Good matchup into either top laner to take advantage of their lack of synergy.
Top LNG Plays
- Icon - MID - first in KP%, and second in KS%.
- Light - ADC - first in KS% and second in KP%.
- Lwandy - SUP - right down the line #3
- Tarzan - JNG - #4
Summary
- TLDR: V5 2-1, BLG 2-1, I've picked both dogs, and that feels bad, man. This slate is very wide open, and I think both matches go the distance, and that will open up some interesting combinations for tournament lineups.
- Purely by the numbers, V5 has the best spot on the slate if they beat RNG. Then BLG by a hair over LNG, with Royal bringing up the rear, but with the way Royal likely wins those games if they do keeps them in the mix. Good teams playing from behind have put up some crazy numbers this year.
- Again I'll bring up the "big" slates right around the corner in just two weeks. Then again, after the lunar new year break for the eastern regions. It would be great if DK (I don't have any faith in FD) could get some big contest up with satellites running in other sports. Tweet at them, email them, shout it from the mountain tops if you have to I'm willing this into existence.
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