LPL DFS Picks for 7/28/20: DraftKings, FanDuel League of Legends Daily Fantasy

Oh my gosh, my OMG tinfoil hat theories almost panned out - THANKS FOR NOTHING H4CKER. It's all good as I had plenty of VG, and that led to a tidy profit. This next slate looks a bit tighter with less pipe dreaming about upsets, and more potential for excitement.

Amother two-game slate in the LPL and you guys know the routine by now. I’m always looking for an angle on these slates but sometimes it’s just best to play the two best teams in each game and not try to get cute either.

Let's move on to tomorrow morning's slate, now. 'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 5:00 AM on Tuesday, July 28th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.

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5:00 AM: BLG vs. Rogue Warriors (-145)

So yesterday, we engaged in some theory craft to try to find a way for OMG to beat SNG, Today we will engage in the same exercise for the side of BLG over RW. RW are everyone's upset darling from earlier in the split, and now we are getting them in a pick-em matchup that has been bet in their favor. I also see the dfs ownership following the betting line. RW is on a four-match winning streak, but here's the thing right outside of one crazy outlier (game one vs. DMO); they are averaging behind gold at fifteen minutes. Bold strategy RW let's see how it plays out. Keeping in mind that is during a four-match win streak, on the split, they are last in the LPL in terms of gold differential at 15 minutes. So the way that BLG can win this match is by getting up early. They have a better first turret rate, and are only slightly behind in rift heralds. If BLG can get a big lead early and play smart to hang on to it, they can easily win this match versus RW.

In the spring, we saw a worse version of this RW squad (with Ruby instead of Wuming) beat a better version of this BLG (Jinjao in for Wings) 2-0. RW wins this match by being who they are, and that's a pressure oriented team fight team. If they keep pushing into BLG no matter the gold or kill score, BLG will crack. A similar strategy was just on display in the series with Team WE, BLG should have won that series, but WE were able to keep pressuring BLG until they broke. Love the BLG players hate the team is something I frequently say, and I think it rings true here again. RW with Wuming playing a roaming supportive champion pool in the mid lane, have become like a WE light during their current win streak. I desperately want BLG to win for several reasons, I love them, the public loves RW, I like getting on the short ownership side of a close match, and simply Meteor, but in the end, I also believe they are a dumb team that will find a way to lose once all the chips are down. Give me RW here in a 2-1 that I think looks nearly identical to the BLG/Team WE set from a week ago.

You remember game one BLG looked phenomenal because they were ahead early, and WE had to fight into them from behind. Then the other two games, they fell flat before ultimately blowing another lead game three. RW are also priced as dogs on DK and will be the chalk of all chalks, so no matter what, we better throw out some BLG hedge lines.

Top RW Plays:

• Haro - JNG
• Holder - TOP
• Zwuji - ADC
• Ley - SUP

Top BLG Plays:

• Meteor - JNG
• Wings - ADC
• Xinmo - SUP
• Fofo - ADC

 

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7:00 AM: Edward Gaming (-345) vs. LNG

At least this one should be a layup for us, or maybe not. EDG has effectively been eliminated from the playoffs (they need multiple teams to lose all the rest of their matches while EDG wins all of theirs) , and there's no telling how they will react as this is the first time in the history of the LPL we will see a playoff without Edward Gaming. I believe that they are a proud team and a proud franchise, and should play this straight up. The problem is losing that playoff motivation has got to be deflating to them, and that's enough of a reason for me to want to take a small shot on LNG to pull this upset. LNG is also coming off a match with JDG, where they looked solid, taking a game from the spring champs. If that LNG team shows up, EDG could be on upset alert.

EDG is a poor farming team, and they haven't efficiently translated their gold into damage output either. LNG leads them in CSM and damage output, but EDG does have a better gold at 15 differential and slightly better gold per minute, where EDG does lead this LNG squad in the objective department. The first blood, first turret, rift herald, baron percentage, and vision numbers all favor EDG. LNG holds a slight lead in dragons taken tho to their credit. The long way around is that EDG is a better team and should win this game, but if losing their shot at the playoffs takes them out of it anyway, LNG can pull the upset.

Give me EDG 2-1, but I'll play some LNG stacks on Tuesday.

Top EDG Plays: 

• Jiejie - JNG
• Xiaoxang - TOP
• Hope - ADC
• Meiko - SUP
• Scout - MID

 

Summary

1. TLDR - grudgingly EDG and RW win. I hate playing chalk, but you're getting an increasing Vegas favorite at discount prices, and a team that's a comfortable favorite in their own right versus one of the worst teams in the league.
2. You just have to pay for it with ownership %. Nothing is sneaky on a two-game slate, but I'm sure we can get LNG at half the ownership of BLG who themselves should be half of what EDG and RW will cruise in at.
3. RW BLG will be the game I'd go heaviest on in my stacks, it will more contentious than that of EDG/LNG. Both BLG and RW give up more deaths in losses than either EDG or LNG, and I give BLG the highest raw upside on the slate.

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