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Another day and another LOL slate to grind and analyze for you, our loyal RotoBaller readers. I'm always grateful to those who read and interact with the content, and I invite you to join me in the RotoBaller premium slack chat where we are talking LOL 24/7 by signing up for a premium membership here.
Two game slates return for a few days, and this one is going to be pretty chalky. I am going to try to have some fun with it anyway, why not, right?
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 5:00 AM on Monday, August 4th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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5:00 AM: Edward Gaming vs. Victory 5 (-275)
This line has me jumpy for some reason. We've got the fourth team in the league versus the eleventh, and the odds are tighter than we saw yesterday with LGD (#7) vs. BLG (#12), and also today's other matchup WE (#6) vs. OMG (#14). That doesn't quite add up. The only thing I can think of is that the last three weeks of brutal scheduling have caused V5 to look mortal, or that those three weeks are over and V5 can relax. Knowing that V5 is done with TES, JDG, IG, SNG, and WE, all the teams around them in the standings could be just the thing for them to take a deep breath and relax, allowing EDG to steal this match. Although we may see a bit of a letdown from V5 here, they are still battling with SNG/LGD/WE for playoff positioning.
Statistically looking at the last three weeks (not adjusting for strength of schedule), EDG has been the better team. Their early game especially has improved, and we see them holding the lead in gold differential at fifteen, rift heralds, first blood, first to three turrets, barons, and vision numbers. V5 with the lead in first turrets and drakes over the three-week split. Keep in mind that V5 has played the other five top teams during those three weeks. So working through it has helped ease my mind. V5 have had their stats depressed through the last three weeks versus top tier competition, while EDG has looked buffed playing against lower-tier opponents. While I think there is something to the idea that we see V5 take a deep breath and relax a bit in this match, I still believe we see them win 2-1 here. With WE being in the second matchup, that should be the more fantasy-friendly of the two.
Top V5 Plays:
- Weiwei - JNG
- Mole - MID
- ppgod - SUP
- Samd - ADC
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7:00 AM: OMG vs. Team WE (-360)
This one is pretty simple; one team is a playoff team, and the other a bottom feeder. One is very proactive around the map forcing fights and objectives, and the other wants to farm for 40 minutes, then fight once and be done. One has a great, but inconsistent mid laner, the other a weak but consistent one. Anyone who didn't start following league of legends just today knows which ones, but what those of you who joined our clan during the hiatus of "real sports" may not know is that OMG has been strangely competitive with WE during the Beishang era. That is something you wouldn't expect. Since BAE joined Team WE in the spring of 2019, OMG and WE have traded with WE winning in the spring and OMG winning in the summer, but with all three of those matches going the full three games. That's despite WE having been a playoff team both springs, and narrowly missing playoffs last summer. So despite the odds and the return of the rookie ADC (which I feel increases OMG's chances to win), I think we see this set go the full three.
Now let's figure out who wins since patch 10.14 hit we have seen Beishang face a ton of Graves bans, and I wouldn't be surprised to see OMG prioritize taking that pick away from the BAE. Lee Sin H4cker's most played champion has been nerfed in patch 10.15, and I think we will see him on Volibear tonight a powerful pick on which he is 3-1. After the ban of Graves, OMG will be free to attack Teacherma's champion pool. Twisted Fate also was nerfed in 10.15 that was one of Teacher's big picks, and he'll be left with Gallio (INSTA BAN), Karma (likely ban), or something more countable like his Sylas or Sett. WE are not locked into the playoffs yet, though they very nearly are. All it takes is a loss by RNG to get them in for sure or for them to win here or Saturday versus TES. From what I've told you so far, I think you can tell I'm leaning toward the upset here because I feel that the current 10.15 meta hurts WE more than it does some other teams, but they have the motivation to control their playoff destiny. Plus, I'm still mad at them (mostly Morgan) for losing to V5 last week when I needed them, but we've also talked about putting our emotions behind us before. But it's a two-game slate, and no one likes a scaredy-cat, amirite! Give me OMG to pull the upset here due to Eric/Sora bot lane energizing the team, and 10.15 nerfing the power of friendship compositions for which WE is famous. Two gamer tho so we're for sure hedging this spot.
Top WE Plays:
- Beishang - JNG
- Juimeng - ADC
- Missing - SUP
- Morgan - TOP
Top OMG Plays:
- Icon - MID
- Curse - TOP
- Eric - ADC
- Sora - SUP
Summary
- TLDR - V5 and OMG win tonight, but with the odds where they are, I think all combos are on the table, making tonight a fun Gpp night.
- The WE/OMG match should be the better upside match for kills, and I'd look to stack heavily on that side. If V5 sweep, they could match with the bonuses, but if they fail to do so, loading up on your phallic favorites may leave you coming up a bit short.
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