RADIO
Our first "big" four-game slate is upon us, and I couldn't be more excited, especially after last night's fiesta. TES what the actual, but imagine how tilted you are if you fired up an RW stack only to not cash thanks to how poorly game one played out. Onward and Upward, as they say, we're on to the next one. LCK joins the fray, so I'll remind you upfront that LCK doesn't confirm their starters the way LPL does. We'll know who's starting the first LCK match about an hour pre-lock. So unless you're up all night, prepared for a leap of faith, set the alarm, or know something I don't, you will want to tread carefully with any LCK pieces you add to your lineups.
The esports team here at Rotoballer is committed to joining you every step of the way through the upcoming season. We're looking at adding some new features for you all to enjoy, but until we get those up and running, you'll have your old faithful story-telling grandpa here for daily research and recommendations.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Wednesday, January 13th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM Gen G (-500) vs. KT Rolster (+325)
Gen G is one of the very few teams that made no changes to their starting roster in the offseason. Gen seems primed for another season at or near the top of the LCK. This KT Rolster lineup, on the other hand, looks primed for yet another disappointing split mired in mediocrity. If you didn't hang out during the KeSPA Cup, I'll break it down quickly, and if you've already seen this KT roster in action, skip to the part where I tell you Gen G sweeps.
KT had a disappointing offseason, in which they lost their stud ADC Aiming to BLG and replaced him with Hybrid. Hybrid had an excellent spring split last year but fell off a bit in the summer. KT will likely focus on him, but unfortunately, I doubt they get much traction in the match versus Ruler. Blank returns to the LCK after a few years in the LJL, and I'm expecting him to start after being unimpressed with Bonnie in the Kespa cup. Speaking of unimpressed, the veteran support Zzus also had a rough go in the preseason. I think Doran improved quite a bit throughout last summer and is an excellent piece for this squad. Dove and Ucal will likely split time in the mid lane unless one distinguishes themselves early. I would lean toward Ucal, but it may be that Dove starts early as the veteran might give them a better chance to start well, but if he struggles, the youngster is waiting in the wings.
Gen G added some depth to their roster, and I only expect one of those players to push for playing time possibly. Former LPLer Flawless joined from APK Prince, and he could contend with former LPLer Clid for playing time if Clid struggles. Former T1 trainee Burdol joins as Rascal's backup in the top lane, and Karis joins the main squad from the academy league. Kellin left, so no more guessing who's starting at support for Gen G. That should make our lives much more comfortable.
The LCK's return will also make things more comfortable for us as we look to differentiate our lineups, and LCK teams are typically more predictable than their LPL counterparts. The lack of a preseason doesn't worry me, as Gen G should roll here with a clean 2-0. They are consistently a top team in the league and made no significant changes, so it's no wonder they didn't feel the need to send the A squad to KeSpa Cup play.
Top Gen G Plays
- Ruler - ADC - Led the team in kill participation and kill share last summer.
- Clid - JNG - Finished slightly ahead of Bdd in KP% and slightly behind in KS%
- Life - SUP - Always a good value at support, but without the swap's fear, this split his ownership and price likely increase.
5:00 AM: T1 (-305) vs. Hanwa Life Esports (+210)
HLE (aka old DRX) was disappointing at the KeSPA Cup, and T1 was only there in spirit using their academy roster. HLE completely remade this roster in the offseason while T1 made some small changes. Let's dig into these changes and then see how the teams match up.
HLE had one of the biggest offseason of anyone adding Deft and Chovy from DRX and Morgan from Team WE. VSTA remains in the support role after converting from ADC last split. I'm guessing Arthur will get the start in the jungle since he got the most reps at KeSPA, and Cad has been announced on their academy roster. This team looks like it has the makings of a top-four squad, but they might be in trouble on opening night.
T1 made only one addition in the off-season, but it's a doozy. They sniped Keria away from DRX and, in doing so, cemented themselves another top-three showing bare minimum. The young support was at times the MVP of DRX last year, and adding him to Teddy in the bot lane will give T1 fans reasons to cheer. T1 also changed coaching staff in the off-season, getting Zefa and Daeny from DWG. T1 was the lowest pace LCK team last year, but that could change in 2021.
HLE has improved from 2020, but their roster falls short of the one fielded by DRX last year. With the two primary carries being the same, I'd say that's a fair comparison. DRX only picked up one series win in five tries versus T1 last split, with T1 hilding the edge in game score 10-5. T1 got better, and HLE improved, but not to the level of the previous year's DRX. T1 win this, and it could be a sweep. T1 is priced down due to their history of being such a slow-paced team. With the coaching changes, I like this spot to outperform their prices before other players and sites realize their error. T1's old habits will be hard to break, but I will try to be ahead of the curve on this one. I would guess that Cuzz will get the start in the jungle, but that was the central spot T1 swapped around last year, so I can't recommend him.
Top T1 Plays
- Keria - SUP - He led DRX in kill participation last summer and benefit from the upgrade at adc.
- Teddy - ADC - Led T1 in both KP% and KS% previous summer. A lot of the team's moves will revolve around him.
- Canna - TOP - Surprisingly, he was second only to Rich in KP% for LCK top laners and was third in KS% among full-time tops.
- Faker - MID - The matchup with Chovy is problematic, but unlike the jungle position, we know he'll start and was second on the team in KP% last summer.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: WE (-265) vs. Victory 5 (+190)
V5 took LPL by storm last summer split, and fantasy players were all in. Even after we found out that the PP in ppgod was just his last name and not the sixth-grade humor we all enjoy. V5 looked good at Demacia, but we've yet to find out if that was due to the level of competition or their own merits. WE opened with a slightly shaky dub over a Rogue Warriors side that we now know is the second-best team in the league.
V-5 had a decent offseason reclaiming Weiwei from SNG and adding LangX from LGD. Mole remains in the mid lane, and Y4 moves back to his former starting role with the departure of SamD. Peng Peng Gawd remains the catalyst for the team from the bot lane. The team did well at Demacia qualifying through groups in an undefeated fashion but ultimately falling short versus JDG 3-1. Seemingly every game versus JD was winnable; too, they narrowly lost out in the team fights
As you guys know, WE are a team I'm hyped up for, thanks to their roster changes. They also didn't let me down by losing to RW (ahem, Top esports, I'm looking directly at you). They didn't look like cleanest versus RW and were behind early. V5 was an excellent early game team last split and with the same core should be again this split. V5 also beat WE 2-1 in summer after Y4 subbed in for SamD. Weiwei can match Beishang, and that isn't something I say lightly. The bot lane is, on the whole, likely a tie matchup, with ppgod having the edge over Missing but Juimeng holding the advantage over Y4.
This match will be close, and it likely comes down to the solo laners in which I give a slight edge to the side of WE. Shanks remains a bit of an unknown quantity, and as long as WE ban Zoey, they should be okay in the mid lane. New acquisition Breathe will have to be the diffy in the tiffy? Top gap, that's a better way to put it. This match will be closer than most expect; I still like WE to win, but if you're hunting for a dog, you could do worse than V5.
Top WE Plays:
- Beishang - JNG - Engine that drives the team leads them in kill participation and second in kill share.
- Breathe - TOP - Best matchup on the squad, and he may have to replicate his OMG numbers to get the dub.
- Missing - SUP - right behind Bae in kill participation, and we've seen supports roaming all over this split. Finally benched the Kench.
- Juimeng - ADC - Will have to carry for WE to get the win.
Top V5 Plays:
- ppgod - SUP - Led the team in kill participation both last split and at Demacia. He picked right up where he left off last year.
- Weiwei - JNG - Number two in KP% for this team last summer will have to match Beishang's presence.
- Y4 - ADC - More carry oriented than the departed SamD led the team in kill share both last summer and at Demacia
6:00 AM: LNG (+375) vs. Invictus Gaming (-650)
Tarzan will make his long-awaited LPL debut on a suddenly very relevant LNG squad. IG will look to keep their momentum going after a sweep of rival JDG. This is a hyped matchup, and I'll be watching closely to see if my IG boys can maintain a consistent approach. Let's take a look at the moves that made over this LNG team.
Light and Lwandy are the only holdovers from last summer's team, and before you scoff, they are a young bot lane with good chemistry. M1kuya comes up from their LDL team to fill the top lane, but the rookie may be sent back down after today. LNG announced they had signed Natural, formerly of DMO(TT) and OMG (when called ALE). He was a force for both of those teams but will now join a squad that's better able to compete around him.
Icon comes over from OMG in a bit of a surprising move, and the veteran mid laner will have to re-establish himself as his reputation has taken some hits recently. Tarzan will be prowling the jungle for this squad, and there was a time not so long ago he was called the best jungler in the world. These two will give LNG a duo able to compete with anyone in the league. I'm cautiously optimistic for this team and have only mild concerns about them bringing in several Korean coaches.
IG is still feeling out this split with their new acquisitions, and they found success playing to the top side versus JDG. With a rookie up against theshy, they might pivot to the bot lane allowing theshy to solo out the youngster. IG ended Griffin's run at Worlds in 2019, so the core members have seen Tarzan up close. Icon hasn't beaten Rookie since the 2016 summer split, and I like IG's chances here, as well. I think they can sweep, but I don't know if they can pay off their prices as they are the most expensive team on the slate. LNG wasn't very bloody at Demacia, and having brought in Korean coaches leads me to believe they will try to emulate the LCK style.
Top IG Plays:
- Rookie - MID - Rookie is love, Rookie is life.
- Xun - JNG - Takes direction well.
- theshy - TOP - He should have the advantage over the youngster.
Summary
- TLDR: Gen G 2-0, T1 2-0, WE 2-1, and IG 2-0. I can get behind either LPL underdog for an upset play if you're looking for one. Especially V5 since they have history on their side versus WE. IG has become uncomfortably similar to my Minnesota Vikings in that they keep sucking me in only to crush me. So I also wouldn't be shocked to see LNG pull this one out.
- I'm more secure in both LCK favorites, and both of their betting lines have moved overnight to indicate the money is flowing that way as well. My inference that T1 will take a note from DWG's page and step up their pace will tie up a lot of my night. They're cheap enough to allow some very nice builds.
- The four gamers are here all week now, and even though the LCK is a bit more of a tiered league than is the LPL, we still celebrate this variety and the ability to differentiate our lineups. I can't wait to see you out there on the fantasy rift; let's get some green!
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