RADIO
Well, last night was sure an adventure. The LCK favorites held serve as expected, but unexpectedly. While WE and V5 threw back and forth, IG just threw. Seriously though, all the props to Lwandy may never be allowed to pilot Alistar again after his game two performance. It was well after midnight when rumors reached me about the T1 starters being unexpected. Unfortunately, that info was very unofficial, and the only insight we had was not to trust the T1 starters.
How nice was it for the opening four-game slate to have disastrous late news to remind us of the following. LCK doesn't confirm their starters the way LPL does. We'll know who's starting the first LCK match about an hour pre-lock. So unless you're up all night, prepared to leap of faith, set the alarm, or know something I don't, you will want to tread carefully with any LCK pieces you add to your lineups. Tonight should be more straightforward as far as lineups but more wide open with the teams all being close.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM Nongshim RedForce (-200) vs. Liiv Sandbox (+145)
Team Dynamics rebranded in the offseason, becoming Nongshim RedForce. I liked them going into the KeSPA Cup and was rewarded as they advanced to the finals. There is a little asterisk there since T1 and Gen G didn't show up, but they did show why I've called them a baby DWG. Liiv Sandbox will look to move back up in a rebuilt LCK. We'll go over the roster changes both teams made in the offseason and then look at the matchup.
The RedForce added Peanut from LGD and Kellin from Gen G. Those two represent significant upgrades to me. The biggest question mark on the roster is their mid-laner Bay. He played well at KeSPA, and I think he can continue to play at or above league average. Peanut and Rich's combination is exciting to me as either can carry, and both can take the pressure off of Bay while he grows into his role. Deokdam was fine last split and can bring some off-meta picks to the bot lane if needed. Kellin will help out a lot, even just getting another player with a winning mentality into the fold.
Croco will get the start as I believe that On Fleek has become inactive due to his suspension. Effort came over from T1 and brought a mechanical upgrade over Gorilla, but that may be offset by losing his veteran presence with the team. Leo and Route will split time in the bottom lane, and I think it might be Route getting the start based on the KeSPA results.
Speaking of those results, Nongshim took three of the four games these two played. So they should be the favorites, and they are, but the line is closing up. Sandbox was ahead in several of those losses at the fifteen-minute mark but managed to throw those games away. I think that is what is making the line move. I, too, like the dogs here. With more time under their belts to practice together, SBG can fix some of those late-game woes.
Unlike yesterday where the LCK matchups were pretty cut and dried before the T1 nonsense, I think either of today's matches could go both ways. The casual observer can take a peek at these game logs and lock in Nongshim, but if SBG can clean up those mistakes, we're going to scoop them up cheap and low owned. That's a dream combo in DFS, so give me SBG to take it 2-1 as Nongshim will still have some growing pains. Double bonus as NS was the fastest team at KeSPA, which will make this the better target of the two LCK matches regardless of which side you land.
Top Liiv SBG Plays
- Croco - JNG - Led the team in kill participation and was second in kill share in KeSPA Cup play.
- Route - ADC - second in KP% and first in KS%.
- Effort - SUP - right down the list as he was third on the team in KP%.
- Summit - TOP - He outscored Rich in the BO3 loss in the opener of the knockout stage.
7:00 AM: DRX (+105) vs. AFS (-145)
So I did the math in chat this morning and scientifically determined that AFS might be the second-worst team in the LCK. It might be a hot take, but I'll stand by that. I had some expectations for them going into KeSPA, but they were awful going winless at the tournament. DRX sustained a rough offseason, and this will be an uninspiring matchup.
AFS replaced their bot lane duo of Mystic and Ben with Bang and Lehends. The top half of their map remains unchanged, with Kiin, Dread, and Fly remaining in top, jungle, and mid. I view this as a slight loss overall, but I'm down on them after their performance at KeSPA. DRX was hit hard in the offseason losing four of five members and all downgrades on paper. Only Pyosik remains from the squad that we saw at worlds just two months ago. The four new members all represent a positional downgrade, with the possible exception of Kingen, who returns to the LCK after a stint in the LPL.
These two were the second and third slowest teams at KeSPA, and I don't see that changing much. DRX lost too much power with the departures of Chovy and Deft, while AFS is pretty lackluster. I think that Pyosik will have the edge in the jungle, which could be enough of a difference. The top lane is very even between Kiin and Kingen. Mid is a tough call with AFS having the experience edge with either Fly or Keine, but SOLKA might have the talent edge. Bot lane is a similar scenario, with AFS having the edge in experience with Bang and Lehends. DRX Bao is again likely the more talented player at this point in his career. This match is a coin flip to me, and I'll probably land on the underdog, but more importantly, I don't think I'll waste any more time worrying about the slowest matchup on the slate that likely goes three games.
Top DRX/AFS Plays:
FADE
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: JDG (-290) vs. BLG (+205)
Billibilli boys came through for me versus eStar, but the step up in competition to JDG will be stiff. This JDG squad will be mad as hell looking to bounce back from a hard loss to rival IG. JDG has history on their side, and their last loss to BLG was in the Spring 2018 playoffs.
BLG, well known to be one of my personal favorites, had a rough start versus eStar dropping game one and looking like a newly assembled team doing so. They snapped out of it for a 2-1 win looking much more coordinated in their other two games. BLG will be looking to take advantage of JDG's slow early game. JD drafted some scaling picks versus IG and paid the price for it. They similarly started slowly in the Demacia Cup. The Viktor mid picks gave Rookie free laning phases, and it turned out to be a mistake. Zeka is no Rookie, but if Xiye (or Yagao if they swap) can't pick up the pace, JDG could be in trouble here as well.
As I was dead wrong taking JDG over IG, but I'm fearful of overreacting to that miss by immediately picking against them again. The slow starts and scaling picks are a worrying trend that began in the Demacia Cup. JDG will try to win thru their superb team fighting, which will be the crux of this match.
Can BLG get far enough ahead to slap JDG with their wallets, or will JDG's edge in continuity and communication undo BLG's early lead? So far, this young split seems to me that the snowball meta has become even more prevalent, and unless JDG makes some adjustments to that, they could have problems. I hate overreacting to early-season wins or losses, and I think I like JDG here as their issues seem simpler to fix quickly. Plus, Yagao will be starting over Xiye, and the dumpling brothers' synergy is nothing to be scoffed at. BLG is still firmly in play as they have the tools to best anyone, and they can still capitalize on JDG's draft and pace of play issues.
Top JDG Plays:
- LvMao - SUP - Always the leader on this team, both on the rift and in kp%.
- Kanavi - JNG - IG tested his early pathing, and he'll need to rebound here in a tough matchup, but he'll be critical to a JDG victory if he does.
- Loken - ADC - Led the team in kill share and kill participation during Demacia Cup play.
Top BLG Plays:
- Meteor - JNG - Needs to step his game up and regain the 2019 form. He missed some key skill shots match one, but I believe.
- Buibui - TOP - Did very well versus Zoom in summer split while on V5, plus high kill participation in the opening match.
- Aiming - ADC - Picked right up where he left off in Korea.
6:00 AM: RNG (+175) vs. Suning (-240)
SNG turned the whole slate upside down on LPL day one, and the only thing I got right was the bit about them was the low ownership. Royal finally managed to not give up as favorites. They will now get a chance to unseat the high-flying world's semifinalists. The new-look RNG squad is a modified Estar lineup from the last split, and eStar with Wei in the jungle could split with SNG the previous year.
As was the case yesterday, I think both LPL dogs are very live to get wins. The oddsmakers seem to agree with me in this matchup as the spread has evened out after SNG opened as bigger favs. RNG did well as favorites in the opener, but the step up in competition from TT to SNG will be startling. Specifically, in the top lane where Bin is a monster, I'm on record of liking the Xiaohu top move. Sofm, the farm god, will make things hard for Wei as the latter plays a more supportive role in getting his laners ahead. Cryin and Angel will be a pretty hype matchup of both trying to clear lane faster and roam bot. Huanfeng and On will have the talent edge over Gala and Ming, but RNG's duo will have the experience edge.
I like SNG here though, as I said, RNG is in play as all LPL dogs genuinely are. I think Bin explodes Xiaohu top, and if Wie tries to interfere, he'll likely just two v one while sofm steals the krugs. Crying will be the difference-maker for RNG to win. Haunfeng must still be on the sex, and I think they win bot lane hard. Crying won't have a spot to roam with both lanes being pressured. I also like the upside for SNG, with RNG having turned up the pace similar to the spring eStar squad they so closely resemble now.
Top SNG Plays:
- Haunfeng - ADC- Even better kill share versus TES than Bin, but he won't have Jackeylove eating into him today.
- Bin - TOP - 12 kills 3 deaths 18 assists versus TES 83% KP and 33% KS this man is IN FORM.
- Angel - MID - He functions a bit more like the jungler than the jungler does. He led the team in KP% at worlds.
- On - SUP - I'll take a shot here because I like the spot for them.
Top RNG lays:
- Crying - MID - Led the team in kill share versus TT.
- Wei - JNG - insane 81% kill participation in the opener.
- Ming - SUP - adjusting to more roaming style play.
Summary
- TLDR: SBG 2-1, DRX 2-1, JDG 2-1, and SNG 2-0. Without the late lineup issues like yesterday or the big favorites. The lack of huge favorites and the tighter vegas lines will spread out the ownership today.
- The first LCK match has the most upside of those two, while the second will likely carry the least ownership. I like the second LPL match for more upside, with RNG pushing the pace a bit more thanks to their new playstyle.
- We'll be ready for shenanigans tonight, whether in the form of LPL favorites throwing or LCK teams shuffling lineups. We here at Rotoballer will keep you covered.
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