RADIO
Last night was a wild one with RNG scoring as much in one game as I ever remember seeing and DWG stumbling versus Brion. Too much DWG in the team slot and the wrong guys off the right teams cost me last night. I'm sure a lot of you, too, got stung with the extreme nature of last night's slate.
Tonight could be equally exciting as all eight teams are in play, and the odds show they bear that out. Sorry I'm so late, but some poor decision making this morning and a swim meet tonight cost me some time. The analysis is here tho, and the kid with the blue cap came up short of his personal best.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Friday, January 22th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM KT Rolster (+150) vs. Hanwa Life Esports (-210)
KT Rolster is flying high after a beat down onto Liiv Sandbox, but one of the league's top teams is coming to town in Hanwa Life Esports. HLE rebounded after the opening loss to T1 with a win over DRX. HLE has the name brands here with Deft and Chovy, but can they overcome the new look KT squad.
HLE barely managed to stave off DRX, and I think outside of the leading men on this roster, the supporting cast leaves much to be desired. Drafting has also been sus with HLE giving over some high powered bot lane duos like Aphelios/Thresh, Sett/Kaisa, and Alistar/Kaisa. I think that will be a problem as I prefer the bot duo of KT to HLE. Deft is dust (and for those of you playing along at home, Deft was just made into the optimal captain in every format at 4:18 AM today)
The jungle matchup will also be a problem for HLE, as Blank is back in the LCK, and he played very well versus SBG. His vision control was excellent, as was his setup around objectives. Arthur is a promising rookie, but he'll have his hands full here. D07an will be back looking to protect his rep as the "best top laner in the league" versus Dududunga.
Both teams have a similar schedule, have faced one top of the table team and one mediocre squad. KT ran Liiv SBG off the map while HLE struggled with DRX, but HLE went three games with T1, and KT got dusted by Gen G. Looking at their stats, you can see that HLE are a bit better early with higher rates of first turret, first drake, rift herald, and gold differential at 15. HLE also holds the edge in drakes, and the team's baron rates are dead even, but the vision advantage coming out from the side of KT could be a difference-maker. KT also has a blue side, which still maintains an edge in global win rates, and both of HLE's wins versus DRX were on blue and their lone win vs. T1.
You can probably already tell from my tone where this is going, but I like KT to pick up the upset win in this match. Both teams are a collection of parts that will need to gel throughout the season, but I like KT's pieces a bit better right now. HLE has a bit more upside as their kill per win numbers back through KeSPA have been into the 20s, and I think this is the better of the two matches for LCK upside. Both teams are over 17 deaths in their losses, which bodes well for the fantasy points. I think you can play both sides, and I feel like I'm going to say that a lot today as we have another slate without any massive favorites.
Top HLE Plays
- Chovy - MID - He is their win condition and the leader in kill participation, but thrid in kill share.
- Deft - ADC - Leads the team in kill share and will need to return to form for this team to win.
- Arthur - JNG - Second in both kill metrics, mechanically superior to Blank.
Top KTR Plays
- Hybrid - ADC - his stats are down right now, but KT will try to draft for the late game and let him carry.
- Zzus - SUP - second in KP% been excellent on hard engaging champions.
- Ucal - MID - What year is this (2018 again I implore you to watch KT v IG Worlds QF matchup that was in my mind the real title game that year), because Ucal leads the team in both KP% and KS%.
- Blank - JNG - Looked good in his return to the LCK.
7:00 AM: Dragon X (-120) vs. Liiv SBG (-115)
Liiv SBG is an early front runner for the year's tilt team, and we saw them get shredded by KT last time out. DRX is proving to be tough, and that's awesome for a team that retooled in the offseason. Pyosik is a stud, and Croco has looked good so far, so this jungle matchup might be the most exciting part of this matchup.
Liiv has the early game edge, and we saw this come into play versus KT last time out. Liiv was up early in game two, but predictably they couldn't hang on, and KT cam firing back, finding matchups like this has been key to dfs success this year with JDG, and most recently, RNG paying off huge after overcoming early deficits. DRX themselves, in their win over AFS, already went down that path. SBG did right by themselves by dunking on AFS in a match that tilted us all, and it will be interesting to see how the dfs community responds.
Is all forgiven, or can we still get SBG as a dog with low ownership? I think they do carry some ownership tonight as people try to make up for missing them versus ASF, but I like DRX for the win. Pyosik refuses to let this team lose no matter who they play. Leo came on in relief of Route for SBG in their win over AFS, and I expect him to get the start again here. His success had more to do with AFS failures than anything he did. I prefer the other LCK match for upside, but if SBG does go up early and throw as I expect them to, DRX could pop.
Top DRX Plays:
- Pyosik - JNG - He is the MVP for this squad as the lone carryover from last year.
- Bao - ADC - been popping off leads team in kill share and second in kill participation.
- Becca - SUP - KP leader at 75.2%
- Kingen - TOP - 64% KP and 21% KS is nice for a value menu top laner on a favorite.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: Rare Atom (-235) vs. BilliBilli Gaming (+165)
I think that my opinion on this match might be a popular one, given the reasoning. Then again, the betting line hasn't moved since starters came out. Leyan will be starting in the jungle for RA, and I don't understand the move. Leyan has almost looked like a Quiyana one trick in the past, but I imagine he'll be playing Lee Sin today. The last time these two junglers met was when Leyan was with IG, and they prevailed 2-1, but in a game two loss, Meteor went 8-3-4 with Olaf.
I don't see the point of changing horses midstream like RA is doing here, and I think they lose some continuity from it. Leyan is off the table except for gpp, as his swap risk is very high if they drop a game. BLG tilted me off the face of the planet with some HORRIBLE drafting versus V5. Game one is more like what this team should look like, but not putting Aiming on some of these late-game carries that are prevalent right now is a real head-scratcher to me. The game two draft came off as downright disrespectful last time out and proved to be their undoing.
I'm going back to them tonight, and I was hoping to be alone in this idea. RA looked good taking the fight to SNG, but they play JDG in two days and think they get caught looking ahead while BLG will look to rebound from a very poor performance. Draft issues are worrying, but they are also easily correctable. The revenge narrative is in play on both sides as FoFo looks to stick it to the club that released him, but BLG has double revenge. Zeka versus RA, and Meteor versus FoFo as it was the beef with him, caused Meteor to be benched at the start of last summer as the team sided with its mid laner over its star jungler.
This one might be the best upside spot on the slate with BLG over 18 deaths per loss and RA at 17.5, plus I suspect it will be very scrappy with the emotions in play. I think RA will be lower owned than their odds would indicate due to their pricing in addition to the swap news. This certainly looks like a case of paying up to be contrarian to me. Both teams are live, but give me the discount and the homer spot for BLG.
Top BLG Plays:
- Aiming - ADC - better drafts will yield better performance. I'm putting a lot of eggs in the coach Kim basket.
- Meteor - JNG - You could legitimately captain Meteor anytime BLG played last year, and with 31.3 kill share, he leads the team this year as well.
- Zeka - MID - revenge is a dish best served cold, and he leads the team in KP%.
- Buibui - TOP - Great addition to this team second in KP%
6:00 AM: EDG (+110) vs. JDG (-155)
EDG is at the top of the standings again after some time, and it certainly looks like this roster revamp has hit the mark. JDG struggled out of the gate versus BLG as I expected that they would, and they came roaring back to pay off big time in their last match. The matchups top to bottom in this one are so hype it has game of the week written all over it.
EDG looked a bit off in the game two versus LGD, but it was still a good win for them to avoid the letdown coming off the sweep of FPX. JDG have been slow starters in their games thus far, and that worries me against EDG. Edward has very strong laners, which was the JDG squad's downfall against IG, albeit without Yagao. Even with all the press being about Viper's arrival, for me, the biggest addition might be Flandre. EDG beat the Zoom less version of JDG last spring, and if Flandre can hold him down, they might be primed for another big upset. A much worse LNG squad led by Flandre had a very close 2-1 series with JDG last summer at JDG's power height.
Jdg will need Kanavi to play out of his mind to collect this win with the other matchups being very close or EDG favored. He leads Jiejie in most categories and is very capable of leading his team to a win. The last time we saw Viper at the top of the adc rankings was when Kaisa and Xayah were also a priority, and they are so hot right now. I like him over Loken tonight as well. Overall I think JDG's early game struggles will be their doom in this match. EDG, get up early and, with a powerful bot duo, won't turn over the lead like we saw BLG do.
JDG is averaging over 20 deaths in their losses thus far, and that's very attractive even knowing it's a small sample size. I believe it's a sticky stat because their strength is team fighting, so if they are down, they will look to fight around objectives and work their way back into games. I favor EDG in this one, but again JDG is tough to count out as their strength will be EDG's weakness. EDG is still integrating these new pieces to their roster, and JDG has the edge in continuity by a wide margin.
Top EDG plays
- Viper - ADC - leads the team in kill share and second in kill participation.
- Scout - MID - Leader in KP% second in KS%
- Meiko - SUP - just a step behind his adc in KP% and is a monster on engage supports. Fingers crossed for a Xayah Rakan lane.
- Jiejie - JNG - there will be fights, and Jiejie will need to match Kanavi.
Summary
- TLDR: KT 2-1, DRX 2-1, BLG 2-1, and EDG 2-1. This slate will be a banger, and we could see another solo shot takedown tonight with all the options on the table.
- I like a lot of dogs, and that's scary to me, but it is what it is. I won't worry about salary tonight or ownership since I feel it comes out in the wash. I do feel like you can get RA at an ownership discount with them being the highest priced team on the slate, and with the way BLG have fed that could be niceuu.
- Excited for this slate, ready to win sorry to be late, a lot on my plate.
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