RADIO
I finally got my BLG win, and I was all in on them. I split JDG and EDG, so a couple of lineups found the green. It was a good day all around, and even with KT throwing that series away, I went 3-1 on my picks. Nothing to do but get back to work and keep going for that 4-0.
Tricksome LCK matchups today, well, not the first one. I'm pretty sound on that pick. The LPL side has some heavy hitters on it and a few debuts. Kramer returns to LGD after having cleared quarantine, and Bo will have his LPL debut replacing Tian for FPX. I can't wait!
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Saturday, January 23rd, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM Afreeca (+575) vs. Damwon Kia (-1400)
I almost feel sorry for Afreeca here, but after what they did to me the other day, I rather feel they deserve the beating they are about to receive. DWG, call it what you will, lost to Brion on Thursday AM. It was a travesty and completely unexpected. They came out flat and fell even lower. Upsets of that magnitude are usually reserved for LPL favorites.
I'm willing to write that loss off as an anomaly and expect DWG to right the ship in the most terrible of ways here vs. AFS. I don't care about stats in this one, and I don't think you should either. AFS have beaten Brion, and that's it, but more importantly, DWG will be mad as hell and not going to take it anymore after an embarrassing loss. I know I said the same thing previous to the Brion L, but you don't need me to tell you to play DWG in this spot. We'll have to balance the pricing versus how much you think they are going to fight.
Top DWG Plays
- Showmaker - MID -
- Canyon - JNG -
- Beryl - SUP -
- Ghost - ADC -
7:00 AM: Fredit Brion (+200) vs. Nongshim RedForce (-290)
The unofficial World Champions will defend their crown today as they step down from the mountain top to face RedForce. Nongshim are fresh off a terrible reverse sweep loss to DRX that saw them feed hard in games two and three. I expect a let down from Brion today as beating a run of the mill LCK team is nothing compared to the World Champs, but let's dig in anyway.
Nongshim have had a couple of rough three-game series, one up, one down, versus AFS and DRX. They predictably got drilled by DWG, BRO, on the other hand, got drilled by AFS and Gen G only to upset the champs. Nongshim holds a narrow edge in the objective stats but underwhelm in vision. Their economy is also suspect that low farm, gold, and damage per minute stats hurt their chances of picking up the dub.
It's hard to see Brion not suffering a letdown after such a massive win, but their betting line moves in their favor quite a bit. I'm not sure what I want to do here, and I hate to be a bandwagoner and jump on Brion. I think this is a dog or pass spot for me as Nongshim are averaging over 20 deaths in their losses. Brion only averages 16, so there won't be much meat on the bone for a Nonghshim team that has suspect underlying metrics.
Top BRO Plays:
- Umti - JNG - second in KP% and KS%
- Hena - ADC - 76% KP and 35% KS is TIGHT!
- Delight - SUP - leads the team with nearly 80% KP.
- Hoya - TOP - We know Rich can go overaggressive at times, like all of them.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: TES (-1800) vs. LGD (+650)
Kramer is back, but unfortunately, My Brilliant friend also likes to fade team in which their star returns. Lucky for me, I want TES here to start with as they finally showed some restraint in their 2-0 stomp over RA.
TES crush poor LGD in all the relevant stats, even vision numbers. Now, if they can continue to play within their means, they can stay on their winning ways. TES has a week off after this match, so they have plenty of time to focus on that match with JDG after this one. Kramer's return should help them take this more seriously as well. The focus should be on the bot lane for both teams with Kramer returning.
Getting their starting adc back could be a boon for an LGD squad that did acquit themselves well in his absence. Or, as another smart friend of mine says, "don't matter, TES still smash". I'm inclined to agree with that assessment. This one presents me with another spot where I worry about the game's pace and pay off these TES prices.
Top TES Plays:
- Jackeylove - ADC - leads the team in both kill metrics, and with Kramer's return, I think this game focuses on the bottom half of the map.
- Knight - MID - Second in both KP and KS to JKL
- Karsa - JNG - right down the line here with the next best member.
6:00 AM: FPX (-200) vs. SNG (+135)
After a DOMINANT performance on Lee Sin while wearing his World Championship skin, we were all shocked to hear that Tian would be taking a break for his mental health. Last split, his first issues weighed him down and contributed to this problem. FPX is coming off RW's drubbing and will face an SNG squad officially on a losing streak after opening the split with a win over TES.
A smart friend of mine always says he loves to take a team in the first game without one of their stars. That would be FPX here to a tee. I hate the idea of SNG lose three in a row, but FPX holds the edge in every category except for the vision numbers. FunPlus haven't suffered at all integrating Nuguri into the lineup, but they will have the added difficulty of the rookie jungler joining now. Bo had previously been scrimmaging with the team due to Tian's injury, so it's not like he's walking in off the street.
I like FPX here to win one for Tian, and I know you all might not be here for the narrative street, but I think this one is relevant. With SNG struggling and hard farming, junglers like Graves are currently struggling, so SofM's impact is lessened. The problem is FPX might not have much in the way of upside; SNG only average 16 deaths in their losses. Small stacks only for me. I also think that SNG will be popular here with them facing the replacement jungler. They also have a significant upside, with FPX being one of those teams that love to go down swinging.
Top FPX plays
- Doinb - MID - second in KP%, he likely steps up to fill the void of losing Tian.
- Lwx - ADC - Leads the team in KP% and KS%.
- Bo - JNG - there will be fights, and Bo will be there. I imagine he will spend a lot of time shadowing Doinb.
Top SNG plays
- Huanfeng - ADC - Leads the team in both kill metrics.
- Angel - MID - right down the line for KP% and KS%
- Bin - TOP - Revenge, you say...
- SofM - JNG - Could turn the rookie upside down with his creative pathing and relentless invades.
Summary
- TLDR: DWG 2-0, BRO 2-1, TES 2-0, FPX 2-1. NSRF can win for sure, but I doubt they score very well if they do, making it #notworth for me. SNG can win as well, but I think they will be popular due to Tian being out.
- With the favs playing against some of these slower teams, I likely use my underdogs as my big stacks for Saturday's slate. Like BLG last night, these dogs will be fighting off incursions from the better teams trying to get back into these games.
- Both LCK lines are moving in favor of the dogs, and I think that's an overreaction to the DWG loss. FPX is gaining steam on the betting markets, and it will be interesting to see where they end up.
- I want to play NSRF very severely as they are currently victims of double bias. They stink because they lost and Brion are good because they won. Great bounce-back spot, but I am still worried about those per minute numbers. Great bounce-back spot, but I am still worried about those per-minute numbers. NSRF also has shown to have weak mental performances from key members, making them prone to tilt. Red flags, but something tells me I'm getting a mid tier team versus a bottom tier team that everyone will be on.
- I got my humble brags in about cashing a slate for once and having friends. Don't worry, I didn't make much money, and my friends are all online. So you all stay winning, and I will stay writing jokes.
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