RADIO
All the favs took it home on Thursday. Double support builds were in mass effect, and I took the night off. Or I played OMG, so I should have. Friday brings us the final four-game slate of the week before the five gamers over the weekend. I'm excited to be back and looking forward to covering those big baddies for you all, but first, Friday's four-game action.
The LCK treats us to one cakewalk and one tight contest with Gen G v. Brion and AFS v. KT. On the LPL side, JDG faces a TT squad back in action after only a day off. The late game is the slate's crown jewel, with undefeated EDG taking on the tantalizingly talented yet enigmatic Invictus gaming. I'm always up for a chance to lose money playing IG, so let's jump in.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Friday, February 26th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 Gen G (-1200) vs. Fredit Brion (+650)
I do enjoy my gimmes when I'm doing these write-ups from time to time. Fredit Brion has already used up all their upset juice this split with that big win over DWG's reigning champions. Gen G similarly have spent all their points on the loss to DRX in week four. So we'll look at the stats, but I think I already know where I'm leaning on this one.
As expected, Gen G has the edge in nearly everything. Fredit does have the edge in vision numbers and first drake. They are also only 5% behind Gen G in total dragons. We know Fredit are good little team fighters. If they can keep the game close and start stacking drakes early looking for soul and elder dragon, they may be able to contend with Gen G. The problem is that Gen G are at the top of the table in CSM and GPM, as well as large leads in first blood, rift herald, first turret, and GD@15. I don't think Fredit will be able to contend for long enough to stack up those drakes.
Give me Gen G for the sweep, but Gen G has a very low assist to kill ratio, as I've mentioned in the past. Coupled with Fredit only giving over 15 deaths in their losses, I can't recommend going very heavy on to the side of Gen G. They may give some of the backups a go in a series they have to be reasonably confident in winning. I wouldn't be surprised to see Burdol debut or Karis get another shot. In that case, I might be more interested in those players for a little discount and a still likely sweep bonus.
Top Gen G Plays
- Pick and choose wisely from the side of Gen G. I won't have much they're a stone-cold lock to win, but I don't know if they can pay off their prices in what should be a cakewalk.
- Gen G - TEAM - always in play with more upside than Life.
7:00 AM: AFS (+115) vs. KT Rolster (-150)
The last time we saw this match in week four, KT Rolster held serve on the blue side. Since that showdown KT have continued on a bit of an uptrend playing DWG very close, even taking a game off the reigning champs and sweeping Fredit Brion in our first rematch of the LCK's double round-robin format. Since their upset over T1, AFS has lost four straight matches. Losses to KT and DRX seemed avoidable, but this AFS squad sits in seventh place and will be looking to pick up the upset here to help get them back into the playoff picture.
Afreeca has been the better early game team than has KT, despite being one of the slowest-paced teams in the LCK. AFShas the edge in first blood, rift herald, first turret, first three turrets, GD@15, and first dragon percentage. The difference is significant, too, so even though KT has the better laning stats and overall gold generation, AFS should be ahead at the critical 15-minute breakpoint. AFS also leads in total drake percentage, with KT having a 1% edge in baron takes. KT does sport a substantial advantage in vision numbers. Overall, Afreeca has the better team stats; now, will that be enough to claim the victory.
I've been giving him a hard time and will continue to after that opening game but, D07an has been very good this split. He will have his hands full with a resurgent Kiin in the top lane. Gideon has a full match under his belt in the LCK now, and so he's shaken off the stage jitters. Combining his Kespa cup stats, he's proven to be a strong jungler, but he needs to do a better job of transferring his leads into his laners. That should come with more experience with the squad, but for now, I give the edge to Dread, who leads his team in kill share.
I suspect we'll see Dove again after a good performance versus Fredit Brion, but whichever of the mids from KT starts will have the edge over Fly in the mid lane. Both adcs have been a bit underwhelming so far this split, and I'd have to give the edge to Hybrid. Bang is likey jumping for joy, though, with Ezreal coming back into the meta. EZ is a true comfort pick for the veteran, and that comfort level he has with the champion could even out the matchup if AFS locks it in. With Lehends and Zzus factored in, the bot lane is an even contest. Talent-wise I see KT with a small edge, but the lack of consistency minimizes that.
Given their edge in the team stats and KT's talent edge being nullified by their lack of consistency, I do like AFS here to pick up the win. AFS did take the lone map they played on the blue side in the first matchup with KT. They will get two of the three matches on the blue side for this one. Looking at the kill numbers, I don't think the upside is there for KT, with AFS only averaging 15 deaths in their losses, and that's something that will usually push me into a dog or pass situation. KT gives up nearly 17 deaths in their losses, giving AFS some value even if they lose. KT is a cheap favorite, and I'm always wrong about them. They can give you some value plays for your cash lineup, and splitting your exposure to this match is probably the right call.
Top AFS Plays:
- Dread - JNG - second in KP% and first in KS%, in a match I don't want many pieces from. He saves me money I desperately need to cram in favs.
- AFS - TEAM - they're cheap, they're on blue, and they have some noticeable statistical edges over KT. They make an excellent punt play even if you have nothing else from AFS, and they put up 46 in a 1-2 loss last time.
Top KTR Plays:
- Hybrid - ADC - leads the team in kill share.
- D07an - TOP - 62% KP and 20% KS.
- Gideon - JNG - 64% KP in a small sample size, but his scoring will increase if he can work better with his laners.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: JDG (-1000) vs. ThunderTalk (+550)
Jingdong Gaming came off the break looking strong, finally getting revenge for their loss to SNG at World's. They convincingly swept the World's semifinalists as SNG continues to struggle. TT also looked good, pushing Rare Atom to the limit and nearly outscoring them in the loss. No excuses for RA. That was some poor play, and they were lucky to take home the win. Will TT have any surprises in store for JDG, or will JDG be caught unawares looking ahead to the showdown with FPX on Monday?
JDG's early game has been uninspired, but even then, I doubt TT will be able to generate enough of an advantage to overcome JDG's ability to team fight around objectives. TT lead JDG in rift heralds, first turret, first three turrets, and first drake. JDG recover well and, through the strength of their laners, hold the edge in GD@15 despite their early objective fails. JDG does have a vision advantage, and they lead in total drakes while surprisingly trailing TT in total baron percentage. TT has the edge in team stats overall, but I think JDG's vision lead, coupled with their superior team fighting, will overcome that edge.
Even the player stats are closer than you would assume. Sorting them since January 25th, when Xiaopeng rejoined the starting roster, you can see TT has improved. The jungle matchup will be of utmost importance, and I think Kanavi takes it. He has better farm numbers and similar KP% and KS% to those of Xiaopeng. He gets himself ahead first and then brings that lead to bear around the map. He has the edge in first blood % as well, and he's been taking that lead to the bot lane. Loken and LvMao should have the advantage there. Teen will have the revenge narrative in his favor as a member of JDG's LDL team.
TT tried to all in the early game against RA, and it nearly worked, but I don't see that being successful here either. It's probably their best path to victory, but I never like it when bad teams put themselves on a timer. TT average over 17 deaths in their losses, and I think JDG could push that higher with the possibility of TT being up early. We've already seen JDG score very well when in comeback mode. In the deepest of gpp plays, I could see taking a shot on TT here. JDG is coming off a nice win and looking forward to a big showdown at the top of the table with PFX looming on Monday. JDG also hovers around 19 deaths in their losses, and they could be fighting from behind if TT can secure the early objectives. JDG is the better team, and they should take this in a sweep, but the numbers look startlingly attractive for TT if you hate money.
Top JDG Plays:
- Loken - ADC - leads the team in KP% and KS%.
- Kanavi - JNG - second in both kill metrics.
- LvMao - SUP - thrid in KP% by a hair.
- Yagago - MID - meta shifting in his favor, and we saw what he could do on Azir on Monday.
6:00 AM: Invictus (+145) vs. FunPlus Phoenix (-185)
It's the game of the day in the LPL and the slate-making game for the dfs crowd. Although I tell you no lies when I say I wish I had today off, too, as I instead enjoy watching IG games more when I don't have any money riding on them, that way, when they let me down, it's not a double whammy. Puff returns for IG today, and he will have had nearly three weeks to work with the squad counting the break. EDG has already had a warm-up match post-break allowing them to get out any rust they may have acquired. I'll do my best to keep my fanboy out of this breakdown.
EDG sits undefeated and on top of the table, but they need to lose sometime, right? The early game should be tight between these two. EDG has the lead in rift herald, and they have done well with it leading IG in both first turret rates. IG has a slightly better first blood rate and a much higher first drake percentage. IG holds a 1% "edge" in total dragons and 2% "lead" in baron percentage. The vision stats for both teams are close as well. The team stats are quite close, but EDG has had much better late-game shot calling. IG does have one thing going for them because they are on the blue side where they are 8-1 compared to 2-7 on red. IG will never be described as a smart team (thanks theshy), but putting their powerful solo laners onto comfort champs allows them more freedom to play make during the game.
Everyone got a reminder last time out what a monster Flandre can be in the top lane if put into a carry role. We could see that again with theshy being so imminently campable. In the jungle, I'm concerned for Xun as the jungle changes hurt his effective champion pool. I think Jiejie's flexibility will give EDG the edge there. The mid-lane is usually the most vital point for IG, but Scout has been phenomenal this year. He also has a bone to pick with Rookie because EDG hasn't beaten IG since 2017. IG is swapping to Puff in the adc role, and he has not played together with Lucas in the support role yet in an LPL match. This one is probably the nail in the coffin for me; Viper and Meiko have been superb this split, and they had the edge going into the matchup. The swap from IG raises more questions than it answers.
IG will likely be the most popular dog play on the slate, and I'm sure I'll donk off some more bankroll hoping for a return to the glory days. I don't see it today, though, besides tell me the last time IG won a series versus a strong opponent in a meaningful spot. I think IG gets a game, but EDG has shown to be a complete team. IG average over 20 deaths in their losses and nearly 21 kills in their wins, so either way you stack it, this is a premium fantasy matchup. IG always has paths to victory, but give me EDG to take it 2-1 and score very well in the process.
Top EDG plays
- Viper - ADC - second in KP% to his support, and a nearly 40% KS.
- Meiko - SUP - leads the team in KP%.
- Scout - MID - strong play needs to continue here for EDG to pick up this win.
- Flandre - TOP - this is more of a gut call, but Flandre did pop off last time out.
Summary
- TLDR: Gen G 2-0, AFS 2-1, JDG 2-0, and EDG 2-1. IG is live but will likely be popular on name brand alone. KT are the favs for a reason, but I don't like their swaps, so I'm taking AFS. I also kind of like TT as a DEEP gpp play.
- Gen G is on perfect game watch again and shouldn't have much trouble winning, but they might have difficulty paying off their tags. AFS are #notgood, but the numbers in that match leave me looking at a dog or pass spot.
- JDG should smash, but TT has a slim chance to sneak out to an early lead and hold off the late-game charge. IG is too disjointed to beat EDG, but they are probably worth a shot still despite their position as the highest-owned dog.
- Five games, YUUGE contests, and early lock are on the table for tomorrow morning, but first, we have to digest this four-gamer. Good luck out there tonight, ballers, and we'll see you back here tomorrow, ok?
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