RADIO
I fell for it again. The T1 trap is forever undefeated. Even if you get the starters right, the team lets you down—a disappointing end to a rough night. DRX/KT had one of the most head-scratching game twos in recent memory, with KT throwing away a 9k gold lead only to eke out a narrow win so that they could get demolished in game three. The LPL series went as planned, with RNG mopping up game two after being tested on the first map. TES straight up FLEXED on OMG, especially in game two where they were up 13-2 and 10k gold at 14 minutes. What surprises await us today?
Four sizeable favorites take the rift tonight in the east. Will any of the underdogs come through? HLE and Gen G already took down their opponents in the opening round-robin, and they'll be looking to repeat that feat. Suddenly surging, SNG faces a struggling V5 in the late game in the LPL. Estar might get another chance to get ahead early and then terribly throw another series versus a slow-starting JDG squad.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Friday, March 5th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 HLE (-275) vs. NSRF (+200)
Last time out, NSRF out drafted Liiv SBG en route to a 2-0 sweep. HLE grabbed themselves a sweep as well on Saturday versus DRX. HLE won this matchup 2-1 from the red side back in week five, and so I'm leaning HLE right off the bat. Vegas seems to agree as the line is moving in favor of HLE as well.
Hanwa is one of the better early game teams in the league, and Nongshim is not. HLE should have the edge in the stats both early and late. Their GPM and CSM are also much higher than those of RedForce. HLE also has the mid-lane matchup in their back pocket like always. Chovy versus Bay is not fair; outside of that matchup, the teams' talent level is close.
The kill numbers, however, are not close. HLE is my second-highest projected team on the slate in a win and the highest among the favorites. NSRF hand out deaths for free when they lose, and HLE are not the best team at closing out cleanly. That makes for an explosive fantasy combo. As much as I hate to say it, HLE is my favorite play on the slate.
Top HLE Plays
- Chovy - MID - leads the team in KP% second in KS% and premium matchup versus Bay.
- Deft - ADC - leads the team in KS%.
- Yohan - JNG - I expect he will draw the start again. Either way we'll know pre-lock.
- Vsta - SUP - third in KP%.
7:00 AM: Gen G (-1200) vs. Liiv SBG (+650)
Both teams enter this matchup on something of a streak. SBG has lost four in a row since their upset over HLE, and Gen G has won 5 in a row after punting to DRX. SBG's last loss was relatively poor as they played like trash and somehow drafted even worse. Gen G was sloppy the previous week, dropping games to both Fredit Brion and AFS. Can Gen play poorly enough to allow SBG a chance to upset?
Statistically speaking, NO! Gen G leads in every statistical category. SBG's best chance comes in the early game, where several of the stats are close. The early game was also where Gen G struggled versus both Brion and AFS. So we're left to decide if Gen was limit testing last week or struggling to adjust to the latest patch. I don't like the kill numbers on either side, unfortunately. Gen G is the lowest projected favorite, couple that with their struggles from last week, this whole matchup may be one to pass on. Ultimately I think Gen G is too good to lose this match, but SBG may push them a bit with their early game. I don't believe SBG provides much upside if they somehow pull off the massive upset either, and so I'll be off them as well.
Top GEN Plays:
- You know the usual suspects if you're going here, it should be a sweep for Gen G, but they have shown some weakness in the last week, so I'll shy away.
- Gen G - TEAM - always in play.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: Estar (+750) vs. JDG (-1600)
Not to get all philosophical on you, but think of the old query if God is all-powerful, can he make a rock so big he can't move it? "WTF are you talking about, Jason?" Can Estar build a big enough early game lead that even they can't blow it? So far, the answer is no, as 6-1 with around 3k gold and three drakes was not enough. JDG is fresh off a good old-fashioned stomping at the hands of FPX. Doinb's dark technologies were in effect, with Kled and Nocturne in the mid lane, and not even Yagao's Zoey could fend them off.
JDG's problem this split has been slow starts, and that's been the strength of this Estar squad. Looking closer, though, you can see JDG has slightly better early game statistics. First blood and first drake are the only spots where Estar has the edge. Estar is still working Insulator into the lineup, and JDG is still running the LPL finals roster, so they have a massive advantage of consistency and team fighting. For me, that's the most damaging part of the matchup for Estar is the intangible edge JDG has in team fighting and shot calling.
Estar does have the highest kill projection if they do pull the upset. JDG's numbers look good, too, placing them third among the favorites. We've already seen them come from behind to put up some big numbers this split. Estar is on the blue side, but JDG doesn't have a substantial side selection split, as we've seen from other teams. I'm taking JDG to win this one, obviously, but in true LPL fashion, I think Estar could be a slate breaker if they upset somehow.
Top JDG Plays:
- Kanavi - JNG - leads the team in KP% and second to Loken in KS%
- Loken - ADC - KS% leader, and second in KP%.
- LvMao - SUP - ShiauC couldn't stop dying against RA.
6:00 AM: V5 (+200) vs. SNG (-275)
SNG seems to have found their groove again, and after a strung-out game one against TT, they dropped a perfect game in the second frame. Though I will say that I have NEVER seen a team as fully tilted as that TT squad on Tuesday. The attempt to chase down the Kassadin was especially comical and had the yakkity sax on to 11. V5 have had some time to collect themselves after the loss to LNG. They now are on the outside looking into the playoff picture. SNG is also gaining steam from Vegas moving to even bigger favorites.
Overall the teams are very close statistically, but for me, SNG is a team on the rise. They are finding their stride while V5 continues to flounder, swapping out pieces trying to find the right combo. Since the start of February, SNG is 4-2, with their losses being to JDG and EDG. During that time frame, V5 is 2-4, with their wins coming over Estar and OMG. Any way you slice up the stats, SNG has a massive vision edge coming out of SofM. They have been better at drake, and their baron rate is improving as well.
V5 is on the blue side, where they have been better this split, but SNG has a better win rate on the red side than they do on blue. SNG also has the kill numbers on their side, with V5 giving up 18.6 deaths in their losses compared to SNG's 15.4. I like to look for underdog spots with some pop, and this isn't it. V5 has yet to beat anyone above them in the standings, precisely where SNG sits right now. I'll take the former World's finalists to take down V5 2-0.
Top SNG plays
- Huangfeng - ADC - leads the team in both kill metrics, and he gets the best matchup with the revolving door bot lane of V5.
- Angel - MID - second in KP%.
- SofM - JNG - tanky junglers trending up, and so is SofM.
- Bin - TOP - his 25% kill share is tops on the slate.
Summary
- TLDR: HLE 2-1, Gen G 2-0, JDG 2-0, and SNG 2-0. SBG could trouble Gen G, but I don't think I'll have any. Estar has the pop in terms of scoring upside as a dog, even if their stats don't stack up.
- HLE, SNG, JDG are my favorite spots in kill projections, and I feel pretty comfortable picking my favorites from those three to build lineups even on DK where I don't need the third team for anything over than variation.
- Remind me Saturday that I've sworn off T1 for good this time. I'm also quite prepared for Gen G to struggle enough with SBG that they end up breaking the slate even though it should be a quick 2-0. It's always something this split.
- Tomorrow is the big one! Preferably the first big one, as DK rolls out the monster contests with the 150K guaranteed Dragon Slayer on Saturday and the 100k Turret Takedown on Sunday. Tonight's contests are no slouch, though, unless you play on FD, where it's always the same.
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