RADIO
Friday's slate was more trouble in the LCK. Gen G dropped to SBG 2-0, yes, the same SBG who couldn't do anything against NSRF, the same NSRF who got drilled by HLE. As a heavy investor in HLE yesterday, I wasn't pleased with the Lillia mid and slow play in game two, but the sweep was nice. JDG and SNG held up their ends of the bargains and swept up the inferior competition.
Today brings us the big five-game slate, and since we're on NBA spring break, DK has combined the best of both worlds to give us 150k guaranteed Dragon Slayer with 50k to first. Even the Shock Blast is up to 20k to first. The LCK matches might be less than stellar, but the LPL brings the heat with a couple of doozies capped off by the first versus second place EDG/RNG showdown. Let's get to it!
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Saturday, March 6th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: Damwon Kia (-700) vs. AFS (+425)
You all know I love my freebies, and it doesn't get much freer than this one. The defending World champs taking on the 7th place team in the league shouldn't take long to analyze it.
Amazingly, AFS's best chance here is going to come through the early game. They lead the champs in first blood, rift herald, first turret, first three turrets, and first drake. Most of those advances are like 3-7%, so they are not very significant, and DWG has the edge in GD@15. I doubt AFS can create a lead big enough that Damwon can't overcome it. We've seen DWG claw back into games they have no business being in still because they understand the map, their comps, and their win conditions better than anyone.
DWG took AFS down in the second week of the season, but they didn't score well, only putting up 23 kills in swift 2-0. I think we will see a similar performance here. I've got DWG at 16.25 kills per win in this matchup, and so they should eclipse the 23 kill total from last time out. The problem is that it puts them below all the other favorites. They should cruise to a 2-0 in this one, but I don't know how much I'll have. AFS could be the slate breaker if they pull the massive upset with the slate's third-highest kill projection.
Top DWG Plays
- Ghost - ADC - with the team's non-toplane members separated by 1% in KP%, Ghost's 32.8% kill share makes him the top choice.
- Canyon - JNG - only 2% behind Showmaker in KS% he's next.
- Beryl - SUP - leads the team in KP%, and the 11.4 adc buffs seem to have helped SUP scoring as well.
6:00 AM: T1 (-260) vs. KT Rolster (+190)
Well, this would make it two gimmes on the LCK side. Before the first installment of the Telecom Wars, I would have said that too, only to have KT upend T1. Things have changed a bit since week two, and T1 continues to tinker with their lineup. I think all of us experienced dfs players know what a mistake tinkering is, nearly as bad as rostering T1. Meanwhile, KT continues to find new ways to lose games, and even when they win, you are left scratching your head.
Both of these teams looked like garbage the last time out, and I don't see a lot of ownership coming in on either side, especially with this being the late match in the LCK so that we won't have starters pre-lock. I'd guess T1 goes back to Teddy, Canna, Ellim, or all three to try to anchor the rookie lineup with some more experience. KT will likely flip/flop into Dove in the mid lane for various champs as their drafts were entirely predictable versus DRX.
Statistically speaking, this should be a romp for the side of T1. KT has had trouble in the early game with Gideon on board, and I expect that to continue no matter what roster T1 fields. KT's late game is also highly questionable, and I think with T1 likely bringing back a more experienced core, they should take this one no problem. T1 also has the edge of side selection. I do like T1 to win this 2-1.
The problem is half their roster will likely be unknown, and the numbers don't stack up for them in the kill column. T1 only projects at 16.5 kills per win in this match, compare to KT's 18.25. It makes this more of a dog or pass spot for me. Either way you stack up this game, I think the most appealing part of it will be the ownership. After both teams' performances on Thursday, I doubt anyone who isn't mme will go here. I still think T1 win, but I doubt I'll have much.
Top T1 Plays:
- Your guess is as good as mine.
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LPL Matches
2:00 AM: LNG (-425) vs. LGD (+280)
These early LPL matches haven't been the stuff legends are made of, and this one is no different with a pair of teams on the outside of the playoffs looking in. LNG sandwiched a 2-0 win over V5 between a pair of 0-2s to two of our top teams in TES and RNG. LGD comes in off getting dumpstered by WE, and they could be in trouble again up against a team with a strong jungle presence.
I'll give LGD a little boost here and sort all the stats since 1-23 as that was the first match with Kramer back. LNG is still better in the early game with leads in first blood, rift herald, first turret, first three turrets, and GD@15. They will also have the edge late with better total drakes, baron numbers, and vision score. Team stats and jungle diff both fall in favor of LNG.
Both teams have some disappointing kill numbers, however, which does kill my fake snake buzz. These two are the slowest CKM teams in the LPL, and I have them both at 16 kills in a win. LNG will be back at home in Suzhou, and I think we'll see them defend the home turf. I like the sweep here from LNG, and while I'll always miss the Snake Pit in Chengdu, maybe we can start a new home-winning tradition. If LNG can pick up the sweep, they could still be an excellent little play with their ever-growing implied win odds from Vegas. They also have outstanding team kill participation averaging 2.4 assists per kill.
Top LNG Plays:
- Light - ADC - 37% kill share is outstanding, but DK is wise and priced him all the way up.
- Tarzan - JNG - KP% isn't as high as possible, but I like the matchup for him.
- Icon - MID - leads the team in KP% and second in KS%.
- Lwandy - SUP - 70% KP and a low death %.
4:00 AM: FPX (-225) vs. Rare Atom (+170)
FPX has the line moving in their favor after getting back on track versus JDG. RA had a sweep themselves last time out, but it was SLIGHTLY less impressive than JDG. They needed a lot of help from Estar to pick up that win. Rare Atom has a lot to prove as they don't have any quality wins over any of the top teams in the LPL outside of the asterisk win over WE without Shanks. Can RA step up? Can FPX keep it rolling even with their jungle issues? Let's find out.
Two things that pop right off the bat are that RA has better CSM and DPM than FPX; in fact, they lead the league in both categories. FPX lead in GPM, GD@15, first blood, rift herald, first turret, and first three turrets. RA has the better first drake, total drakes, baron, and vision numbers. This one could get interesting with FPX going up early and RA trying to stay in the game with some map movements and objective plays.
The kill numbers on this one are a bit more exciting, with FPX projected for over 18 kills in a win and Rare Atom over 19. Even with the revolving door in the jungle, I believe FPX should be favored here. RA hasn't performed up to par with the other top teams, and they have FPX, RNG, IG, and EDG left on their schedule. JDG and TES have already swept RA, and I don't think they're ready to contend with the "real" top teams in the LPL.
Top FPX Plays:
- Lwx - ADC - 1% behind crisp in KP% and leads the team in KS%.
- Crisp - SUP - leads the team in KP%
- Beichuan - JNG - nearly 70% KP and his confidence is growing.
- DoinB - MID - dark technologies, man.
6:00 AM: RNG (-105) vs. EDG (-125)
I've been joking all season that with EDG and RNG at the top of the table, it feels like 2016 again. In the eight-year existence of the LPL, we've had 16 championships awarded, one each for spring and summer. Eight of those have been won by either RNG or EDG. Six more have seen those teams as the runner-up, and they have faced each other in the finals four times. Four of five, in fact, from summer 2016 to spring 2018. Enough history lessons; let's get into this match.
EDG come into this clash of historical titans with a better early game rating than that of RNG. They have the better rift heralds, first turret, first three turrets, CSM, and GD@15. Royal has the better first blood percentage and first dragon rate. EDG has the better total drakes, but Royal has better baron numbers and slightly better vision stats. Right off the bat, you can tell this one is going to be tight. I would give EDG a slight edge in the team stats.
Up and down the roster, I give EDG another slight edge in talent. Royal is a more mobile team preferring to make plays across the map. They are second in the league in first blood percentage, but EDG are third. I'd look for EDG to set up counter ganks, knowing that RNG will be looking for early leads. RNG will have an edge team fight, thanks in part to having a full Chinese roster. Wei and Crying spent spring split 2020 together on Estar, but EDG have Scout Jiejie and Meiko as the same core throughout last year.
Both teams are projected around 17.5 kills per win in this matchup, making them both attractive given the pricing. RNG will be on the blue side, and so they will have first pick. EDG, however, only has one game lost on red, so they know how to counter-pick. It isn't easy to sort out these teams, with both having made significant changes in the offseason. EDG did 2-0 Estar in 2020 spring, but RNG won 2-0 in the summer with Gala and Ming over EDG. All told, I like EDG to take the win here 2-1. I think this is one to hedge out. The Vegas line is moving closer to a true pick-em after opening, with EDG slightly favored. I'd give RNG a bit more upside with their 2.5 assists per kill gives them some beautiful team KP%.
Top EDG plays
- Viper - ADC - second in KP% and first in KS with 36%.
- Meiko - SUP - 73.4% KP leads the team.
- Scout - MID - my guy.
- Jiejie - JNG - 65% KP and 15% KS.
Top RNG plays
- Gala - ADC - second in KP% and first in KS with 37%.
- Ming - SUP - leads team in KP.
- Cryin - MID - third in both kill metrics.
- Wei - JNG - 71% KP with 21% KS.
Summary
- TLDR: DWG 2-0, T1 2-1, LNG 2-0, FPX 2-0, and EDG 2-1. RNG is in a great spot, plus their team KP% is nuts. I think hedging that last match is the way to go.
- T1 and KT will be a total disaster, and the most significant upside it will have is the downside. Meaning no one outside of MME will want to take any piece of this match.
- DWG, LNG, and T1 are all projected at or below 16.5 kills in a win. EDG and RNG sit at 17,5 and FPX over 18. RA, AFS, and KT could pop in upsets. There are many ways to approach this slate, and DK has done an excellent job with some very dynamic pricing.
- There are some monster contests out there tonight and an incredible slate for it. Here's to one of us being the ones to get that league moola, and if not, the 20$ Turret Takedown awaits tomorrow night with 25K to first. Good luck, everyone, and I'll see you back here tomorrow night!
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