BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~270
CURRENT ADP: ~344 overall
ANALYSIS: Luis Urias had a monster offensive 2019 season in AAA, with a stat line of .315-19-62-50-7, but could not quite get it going with the Padres once called up. He was only able to hit .223 with four home runs over his 71 games with the big club. Urias was a highly touted prospect with the Padres, but he was dealt to the Brewers this past offseason. The switch to the Brewers could be huge for Urias finding his power stroke.
The shift from Petco Park to Miller Park is massive for all hitters. According to Max Freeze's Home Run Park Factor Plus (HRPF+), right field and center field are major upgrades for Urias. Many will point to Urias's weak 4.4% barrel rate. It isn't a rate that screams power, but it was an improvement from his previous season. When combining his improved barrel rate with an improved 31.4% HH rate and 9.5-degree launch angle, power is sure to follow. Urias also improved his fly ball rate from 12.8% to 24.5%, but only a 7.7% HR/oFB rate. While he is increasing his fly balls, an increased barrel rate and the new ballpark could lead to more power.
Urias is currently being drafted around pick 344 in NFBC Draft Champions since March 1. That is an absolute steal for a former top prospect that has shown a solid average and some nice power in the minors. He is recovering from a hamate injury, and this late start to the season will help him get healthy for the start of the season. Urias owners will realize Urias was a draft-day steal once he beats out Orlando Arcia for the starting shortstop job.
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