Mark Buehrle (SP, TOR) - Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in Deeper Leagues

OWNED IN: 38% of Fleaflicker leagues

ANALYSIS: Buehrle may seem mixed league relevant based on his 11-5 record and 3.23 ERA, but fantasy owners find his 4.49 K/9 to be a huge letdown. If you play in a league that uses K/9 or caps innings, you can stop reading now - you can't possibly roster someone like Buehrle. In standard roto leagues, however, there is a place for the veteran southpaw. His BB rate is very good (1.40/9), and he plays for a team with an elite offense. Even if he slips up, that offense might find him a W. He will throw innings - at least 200 in the last 14 seasons. If innings are a roto stat or generate points in a points league for you, Buehrle has to be owned despite his flaws.

Buehrle does have flaws beside his strikeouts. His home park, the Rogers Centre, is a great place to hit bombs - every home start has the potential to go awry for a finesse type like Buehrle. So far, he has limited the damage with a roughly average 9.2% overall HR/FB, but that could change in one bad start. His luck thus far would be more believable if he was an elite groundball thrower, but he's not. His fastball induces worm killers at a 53.7% rate, while his change generates them 54.8% of the time. His other offerings tend to be in the air, though. Likewise, his stuff shows zero strikeout upside. His changeup manages to get chased 41.3% of the time and still posts a below average SwStr% of 9.4%! Finally, he has a couple of pitches that simply do not work against MLB hitters. His curve is hit on a line 30.6% of the time, while his cutter clocks in at 26.3%. That is just too many line drives.

On the plus side, Buehrle seems to be aware of the problem. He is throwing his 4-seamer - which allows liners at an average rate and generates grounders - roughly 10% more often this year and at the expense of the curve. The fastball is also a strike 59.7% of the time, so you can count on Buehrle to not walk anyone. This, combined with his superlative defense, can make him an asset in WHIP. He is also a pleasure to watch, working so quickly that the rest of the league is in slow motion by comparison. Basball is a game of rhythm, and Buehrle almost certainly derives an advantage from disrupting the hitter's routine. He is also left-handed, and some players - like division rival David Ortiz - can't hit them at all. The Chicago White Sox have a wRC+ of 50 vs. LHP on the season - an entire roster of David Ortizes. This helps Buehrle get key outs in most games, and he dominates teams like the White Sox while lacking elite stuff. The next worst AL team is Seattle at 85 wRC+ vs. LHP, but a bunch of NL teams are between them. By trusting Buehrle's offense and abusing teams and players that struggle against southpaws, Buehrle can provide value for a very low cost. Don't expect Ks, but Wins and innings are as sure a thing as you can find.