RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~150 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~240
ANALYSIS: Marquez Valdes-Scantling finished as the 55th-ranked wide receiver in PPR-formats last year with 9.2 fantasy points per game but is somehow now being drafted as the 72nd receiver off the board. There are only two reasons I can assume for that: his drop rate from last year and the signing of Randall Cobb.
Let's take the second one first. Cobb is a 31-year-old slot receiver who hasn't played more than nine games since 2017 and hasn't had more than 66 catches since 2015. I know Aaron Rodgers loves him, but I think there is a cap on what we should actually expect from him. Plus, his role in no way competes with MVS' field-stretching ability.
MVS had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 17.9 yards last season and finished with 20.9 yards per reception. With Rodgers throwing him the ball, that gives him massive fantasy upside. I know that the 11.1% drop rate is a concern for people, but remember that MVS is a young receiver who is continuing to grow and get better. Jerry Jeudy had an 11.5% drop rate last year and we're still drafting him inside the top-70, and MVS' teammate Davante Adams had a 12.5% drop rate in 2015 before becoming the game's best wide receiver.
I'm not suggesting MVS will become Adams, but I'm saying that the drop rate for a third-year wide receiver shouldn't be treated as a death sentence since we've seen many receivers continue to improve in that area. Considering you're getting MVS with a ridiculously late draft pick, I think it's absolutely worth a roll of the dice. He's an easy late-round wide receiver flier to take, and has sleeper appeal written all over him.
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