RADIO
It’s fine, RotoBallers. You can admit you did it. Some of us already have. In fact, I’m doing it now (and loving it).
I’m of course referring to looking at the Sunday Night Showdown on DraftKings to see where Marshawn Lynch is priced. As soon as he signed with the Seahawks to finish out their 2019 season, I was curious to see where he would fall on the pricing ladder.
But do we dare consider Lynch for usage in Week 17? Is there any chance whatsoever he plays beyond 2019? And what should owners of other Seahawks running backs be thinking in dynasty and keeper leagues? For the answers to those important questions, read on.
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Cashing In to Buy Skittles Now
First and foremost, we need to know if we can actually get enough production out of Beast Mode in Week 17 to consider him as a legitimate play in DFS (or in weekly leagues, if you're in one of those unfortunate leagues that has a championship scheduled for this week).
In DFS, it might make sense to chance it and put Lynch in your lineups. Lynch is 15th on the list in terms of pricing, coming in at $6,300 if you use him in the Captain spot, and $4,200 if you insert him elsewhere. He is cheaper than the backup quarterbacks and the 49ers Defense -- which has been much more vulnerable recently -- meaning you should absolutely take a shot on Lynch if you are rolling out multiple lineups.
It's fair pricing, too, considering Lynch has not played in well over a year, and will likely cede reps to rookie Travis Homer as the pass-catching RB. There seems to be no solid estimation on what to expect from him after such a long layoff. But DFS is all about taking chances, and there is some promise for Lynch as a TD threat.
When we last saw Lynch on the field for the Raiders, he did not have quite the same quickness, juke and quick feet that he did in his prime. But he still had great vision and ran with power, constantly grinding out extra yardage. You could realistically get at least 40 to 50 rushing yards out of Lynch, and more importantly a touchdown run or two.
Of course, this could very well turn out to be a storybook return with Lynch rushing for 60 or more yards on his way to multiple touchdowns. That makes him worth flex consideration in seasonal leagues that are still playing it out. So many other RBs could be rested or not play a full game, while Lynch is practically guaranteed to go all 60 minutes. Even if you only get 10-12 points out of him, Lynch is worth picking up as a widely-available free agent.
Don't Be Afraid To Be a Homer
Lynch may not be the best Seattle RB to use in his return to action, though. Seahawks rookie Travis Homer showed that he can be a potentially productive dual threat when he was pressed into action last week against the Cardinals. He had a 17-yard run and caught six passes. He naturally carries a higher DFS price tag on DraftKings, where he is $11,100 as a Captain and $7,400 if you use someone else in that prime spot.
Pete Carroll has already indicated that he plans to utilize Homer frequently, even with Lynch and former Seattle reserve RB Robert Turbin also back in the mix. Lynch may actually start, but you should see a lot of Homer in a projected timeshare with Beast Mode, while Turbin is likely used sparingly. There is certainly the possibility, though, that Turbin could vulture some goal line work.
Homer has fresh legs, is the best dual threat on the team right now, and knows the current offense better than any of the free agent pickups. He is priced accordingly in DFS to reflect all of those points. He has the most upside of any of the current Seattle running backs and should get strong DFS consideration as the eighth-most expensive player on DK. In seasonal formats, he should certainly be started over Lynch. Even if Lynch has stayed in the best possible shape during his long layoff, Homer is in optimum condition physically and mentally. Lynch may not be fully there yet.
In the Sunday Showdown, you should have higher exposure to Homer, but Lynch could be a difference-maker if he exceeds expectations in his return game on a big stage. He can still likely move the pile and could provide a needed boost to the Seattle offense in a very big game. Lynch has always delivered in big moments and that will make him potentially useful in NFL Playoff DFS formats going forward.
In seasonal leagues, go with Homer over Lynch for sure, but Beast Mode may not hurt you as a flex if you have to use him.
Carson, Penny, and the Fantasy Future of Seattle's Backfield
For dynasty and keeper league owners, there are significant concerns about the long-term outlooks of Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny. Both players have dealt with extensive injury histories, and now there's very real concerns about both running backs' 2020 availability. For more in-depth injury outlooks on both RBs, I sought out medical insights from Virginia Zakas of insideinjuries.com. Here is what she revealed from the research their team did on Penny and Carson:
“Penny will need around nine months to be ready to play following (ACL) surgery, but it will be closer to 12 months before he is near 100 percent. There's a chance he isn't ready at the start of the season.
Carson suffered a hip fracture, but we don't know exactly what kind yet and if he will need surgery. If it was a nondisplaced acetabular fracture then the Optimal Recovery Time is around eight weeks, and he should have a fairly normal offseason. If it was a more serious fracture and he needs surgery, then the ORT jumps to 30 weeks.”
So as you can see, the forecast is very uncertain for both RBs at this time. Carroll declined to put an official timetable on a return for Penny and is obviously waiting to hear more on Carson. If both are available to start the 2020 season, they could operate in a timeshare. But if Penny needs a year’s time to fully recover, Carson could be the clear lead back to open the season again.
Right now though, it's simply too early to determine their respective statuses for next year. You won’t be able to get much in a trade for either one in a dynasty league at the moment and are better off tossing them back into the player pool in keeper leagues. Let's not forget the Seahawks could certainly acquire or draft another RB to solidify the backfield for 2020. What we know for sure as fantasy players right now is that both RBs are looking very risky for the 2020 season.
