RADIO
The Detroit Lions have been a fairly unpredictable team through the first seven weeks of the NFL season. Fans and fantasy owners knew coming into the season that Matthew Stafford and the offense would be leading the charge towards a hopeful playoff berth. Aside from Stafford, Golden Tate and Marvin Jones were the only “sure things” on the offensive side of the ball.
Herein lies the issue and the reason you’re reading this. Marvin Jones started out about how we expected, but as the weeks have gone on and the games are being played, he isn’t so much of a sure thing anymore.
After leading the league in average yards per reception (18.0ypr) in 2017, Jones seems to have fallen out of the favor of Stafford. However, thanks to the emergence of budding stars like Kenny Golladay and Kerryon Johnson, Jones may be on his way out of fantasy owners minds as a must-start.
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What's Going Down in Motown?
See, as Stafford (age 30) continues to age and after throwing for over 4,000 yards in seven straight seasons, he might be beginning to feel the aftermath. For that reason, he might start being more conservative with his throws. This can negatively affect Jones, as he is known as one of the best deep threats in the league, while directly benefiting Golladay and Tate, who run more intermediate routes.
So far this season, Jones’ average Air Target Yards is 15.6, Golladay’s is 11.6, and Tate is 6.3. Stafford’s Average Intended Air Yards is 7.7, 12th lowest in the league. You don’t need me to tell you why Tate and Golladay have more targets, receptions, and yards than Jones. We all know Tate is a Yards After Catch (YAC) monster, but Golladay is doing quite well for himself in the category, averaging 6.3 YAC. Jones comes in at just 4.1, but with the types of routes he runs, a high YAC isn't expected.
Stafford has been relatively interception prone over his career, so when you look at those numbers, why wouldn’t Stafford target Golladay more than Jones? The Northern Illinois product is able to run more efficient routes and is able to gain yards after the completion; whereas a deeper pass to Jones could result in a turnover. In a division like the NFC North, it makes perfect sense that the Lions want to be less aggressive and limit turnovers, while still being able to utilize playmakers like Golladay.
This scenario is two-fold, as the Lions seem to be establishing themselves a competent ground attack; that is something they haven't had since Reggie Bush was taking handoffs in 2013. New Lions head coach Matt Patricia drafted Kerryon Johnson out of Auburn in the second round of this year’s draft with hopes that he could give the team much-needed life in the ground game. While they also added LeGarrette Blount, everyone knew this was Johnson’s backfield to take, and take he has.
After a slow start by the Lions, the rookie was given limited opportunities. Then comes Week 3, when the Lions upset the Patriots and Johnson showed the world what he could do. Since then, he has been impressive on the ground, taking 56 carries for 384 yards (6.8ypa) and a score, including two 100-yard efforts, the first since Bush did so in 2013.
So how does this affect Jones? Johnson’s ability to extend drives on the ground means the Lions don’t need to stretch the field as much. If they don’t have to stretch the field, they’ll be able to stay on the field longer, which one would assume is part of the gameplay as the Lions defense is suspect at times. If Johnson can continue to get four-plus yards per carry, it allows the Lions to attempt more efficient passing plays, which again put Tate and Golladay in Stafford’s view more often than Jones.
Don’t let this come off as advising you to drop Jones outright - that is anything but the case. He is, at worst, a WR4 most weeks and if he can haul in a long pass for a score, he’s a high-end WR2. However, he is becoming a player that you need to start thinking about whether he should be in your lineup every week. With just 37 targets through six games, Jones is on pace to finish just under 100 targets, a number he has eclipsed in his first two seasons as a Lion. So when you combine the safety net that is Tate with the emerging star’s in Golladay and Johnson, Jones might be putting fantasy owners in a bit of a reality check.
