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Matt Garza (MIL, SP) - Waiver Wire Analysis

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12 + Team Leagues

OWNED IN: 29% of Fleaflicker Leagues

ANALYSIS: Here's a name I was quite sure I would not be discussing in this series but the pickings are slim and he's gaining traction in ownership, so here we are. Matt Garza recorded a 5.55 ERA in the first half (4th worst) but has rewarded owners who stuck with him (likely idle owners) with his latest string of success.

 

In five starts since the All-Star Break, Garza owns a shiny 2.56 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 31.2 innings. He's faced respectable lineups in that span (vs CLE, @ ARI, vs CHC, vs SD, @ CHC), so let's take a closer look into his recent success.

Here's his Pre-ASB stats:

Matt Garza Pre All-Star Break (FanGraphs)

Matt Garza Pre All-Star Break (FanGraphs)

And Post-ASB:

Matt Garza Post All-Star Break (FanGraphs)

Matt Garza Post All-Star Break (FanGraphs)

Off the bat we can see a significant decline in his HR/9 rate and BABIP along with a huge rise at his LOB%. The BABIP and LOB% are due for regression, but perhaps not back to pre-ASB levels. He's limited his slider usage and replaced it with more of sinkers and change ups, which helps explain the decline in HR.

Is that a recommendation to roster Garza until further notice? Heck no. Just too much risk involved. But he's got a juicy matchup vs Miami on Monday, a team that is last in MLB in AVG, OBP, OPS, HR%, and BB% vs RHP. He's got my stamp of approval for this streaming opportunity. Next weekend at Washington, you're on your own.

 


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!

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