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ANALYSIS: Here's a name I was quite sure I would not be discussing in this series but the pickings are slim and he's gaining traction in ownership, so here we are. Matt Garza recorded a 5.55 ERA in the first half (4th worst) but has rewarded owners who stuck with him (likely idle owners) with his latest string of success.
In five starts since the All-Star Break, Garza owns a shiny 2.56 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 31.2 innings. He's faced respectable lineups in that span (vs CLE, @ ARI, vs CHC, vs SD, @ CHC), so let's take a closer look into his recent success.
Here's his Pre-ASB stats:
Matt Garza Pre All-Star Break (FanGraphs)
And Post-ASB:
Matt Garza Post All-Star Break (FanGraphs)
Off the bat we can see a significant decline in his HR/9 rate and BABIP along with a huge rise at his LOB%. The BABIP and LOB% are due for regression, but perhaps not back to pre-ASB levels. He's limited his slider usage and replaced it with more of sinkers and change ups, which helps explain the decline in HR.
Is that a recommendation to roster Garza until further notice? Heck no. Just too much risk involved. But he's got a juicy matchup vs Miami on Monday, a team that is last in MLB in AVG, OBP, OPS, HR%, and BB% vs RHP. He's got my stamp of approval for this streaming opportunity. Next weekend at Washington, you're on your own.
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