RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~145
CURRENT ADP: ~161 overall
ANALYSIS: Matthew Boyd showed glimpses of brilliance in 2019. He posted a career-high 238 strikeouts in just 185.1 innings pitched, with a 1.23 WHIP. He was among the league's elite in terms of swing and miss ability and limiting walks. His big downfall was the 39 home runs allowed (second-most in the league), which ballooned his ERA to 4.56. He also plays in Detroit, a squad not likely to be competitive in 2020, which limits his wins upside, but those two things have kept Boyd's value under the radar.
The 29-year-old southpaw will line up as Detroit's unquestioned ace heading into the 2020 season. While he could end up as a trade piece if Detroit decides to go into complete rebuild mode this year, his value would only improve if he gets moved to a contending team. If Boyd can reduce his fly-ball % a bit and limit the home runs, which is feasible considering he plays his home games in a pitcher's park, improvement in ERA will certainly follow. He's a potential SP2/SP3 being drafted as an SP4 right now, as evidenced by his current ADP.
He is more valuable in points leagues because of the elite strikeout ability; however, he has worthwhile value in all formats. A less risk-averse owner should jump on Boyd at our suggested price tag and enjoy the strikeouts, especially if he's paired with a ratio stud in your fantasy rotation. There is real potential for value here.
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