Max Kepler (OF, MIN) - Week 7 Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in 12+ Team Leagues

OWNED IN: 28% of leagues

ANALYSIS: When Top Prospects Fail could be the name of a Discovery Channel show as compelling as Shark Week. If so, Minnesota Twins outfielder Max Kepler could have been featured. Last year, analysts hyped Kepler as a major breakout candidate. Then he struggled to match his minor-league numbers and was largely discarded as another failed prospect. As often happens, those predictions may have been a year too early, because this year Max Kepler is killing it.

Kepler’s batted ball profile features a 43% hard-hit rate, good for a .836 OPS. If he can maintain those numbers, he is likely to finish the year as a top-30 outfielder. His wOBA of .366 is actually below his expected wOBA based on his batted ball profile, so he been a bit unlucky this season. His R and RBI totals are modest, but Kepler is now batting third rather than seventh, which means those numbers should improve.

His advanced metrics peg him as similar to teammate Eddie Rosario, whose R and RBI total is 21 higher than Kepler, despite Rosario owning an OBP 50 points lower than Kepler’s. That’s the difference in hitting in the top of the order rather than the bottom. Rosario will provide steals where Kepler won’t, but Kepler is currently available in most leagues, whereas Rosario is owned in 83% of leagues.

When Max Kepler was a top prospect coming through the minors, he consistently maintained a 15% K-rate and an 11% BB-rate. Then he got to the majors and averaged a 20% K-rate and 9% BB-rate. This year, he’s brought it back to a 13% K-rate and an 11% BB-rate, numbers quite similar to his minor league days. Interestingly, Kepler’s Swing% is up and so is his Contact%. Whatever improvement we’re seeing is supported by the batted ball profile, and if he keeps this up, opponents are going to need a bigger boat.