Max Kepler (OF, MIN) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Target ~110

CURRENT ADP: ~133 overall

ANALYSIS: Many have been waiting for Max Kepler to break out since his first full season in the big leagues in 2016. While he had some decent production through his first three seasons, he finally was able to get over the hump and officially break out in 2019. He did this by slashing .252/.336/.519 with 36 HR, 90 RBI, 98 R, and 60 BB in 524 at-bats and 134 games. The 36 home runs ranked him 18th in all of baseball, and the improved on-base percentage allowed him to score 98 runs, which ranked him tied for 30th in baseball.

In 2019, Kepler improved on his barrel rate for the fourth consecutive season by putting up an 8.9% rate. He also improved his exit velocity for a third consecutive season by hitting 89.7 mph. His xSLG improved for the fourth year in a row, and his hard-hit rate improved for the third consecutive year. These came despite a BABIP of .244, which is very low considering the numbers he was able to put up. If this increases by even 10 points, we are talking about a much stronger season. He also managed to keep a minimal strikeout rate at just 16.6% and paired it with a solid walk rate of 10.1%. These rates along with his plate discipline metrics are what add so much value to the power he displayed.

Kepler had a zone contact rate of 89.4% in 2019, which was in line with his career average of 88.7 and well above the league average of 82.9%. While his chase rate ticked up slightly to 27.6%, he was still below league average. He is projected to hit leadoff once again vs. righties, which is where he scored 87 of his runs a season ago while posting a .333 OBP and a .533 SLG. The AL Central currently has 14 projected right-handed starters across the four rotations the Twins will be facing, so opportunities will be plentiful. The Twins have also added slugger Josh Donaldson to help bolster a lineup that scored the second-most runs in baseball in 2019. Therefore, Kepler's stock entering 2020 is looking solid and he can certainly improve upon 2019's numbers.