Michael Pineda (SP, NYY) - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target ~160

CURRENT ADP: ~192

ANALYSIS: Pineda has been a difficult pitcher to figure out over the past few seasons. The results say that he probably doesn’t deserve to be the Yankees third starter.  However, the advanced stats show he has gotten unlucky and is due for some positive regression this season. With his mid-90s fastball and excellent slider, Pineda can generate a ton of strikeouts. His 10.61 K/9 rate was fifth among qualified starters last season, and his K-BB rate 20.4% placed him seventh. With stats like that, he surrounds himself with names like Syndergaard, Verlander, and Bumgarner.

His FIP/xFIP of 3.80/3.30 were over a run lower than his 4.82 ERA last season, which can be attributed to a bit of bad luck. He gave up 1.38 HR/9 last season, which is higher than his career average. With two outs, he got extremely unlucky; opposing hitters slashed .325/.383/.598 against him in those spots. Though he has excellent pitches and continually throws strikes, he will need to locate his pitches better in the zone to find consistent success. With his strikeout prowess, if he can put everything together in his contract year Pineda can easily be a top-20 starter.