Miguel Gonzalez (SP, BAL) - Waiver Wire Analysis

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OWNED IN: 58% of Fleaflicker Leagues

ANALYSIS: His sterling 4-2 record and 2.93 ERA look appealing on the surface, but the underlying statistics suggest that Gonzalez is likely to regress in a big way. His 7.12 K/9 isn't bad, but represents a leap of a full strikeout from his 2014 figure of 6.28. This could be sustainable if swing % or contact rate have undergone meaningful change, but they haven't. In fact, the only true change is in O-Contact %, down to 66% from 73.7% a year ago. With Gonzalez's already high walk rate climbing even higher (2.89 BB/9 up to 3.56 this year), batters are going to just start taking the wild offerings, making O-Contact % largely irrelevant. That is simply too many walks to help your fantasy team.

Gonzalez's BABIP stands at .237, a number unsupported by both an elevated line drive rate (24% to date) and Baltimore's rotating defense (Steve Pearce the middle infielder?). This number figures to jump, which won't make for a pretty WHIP considering the walks. All of these base runners will test Gonzalez's favorable strand rate (79.3%), and since LOB% is not a repeatable skill, more runs should be expected to cross home plate. His current 9.3% HR/FB is only slightly lower than league average, but even that seems unsustainable for a pitcher in a hitter's park with a career 11.1% mark.

Stuff wise, Gonzalez throws a great slider that is being used more often this year (14.6% to 18%), but otherwise offers nothing of note. His two-seamer was beyond bad last year, and has largely been replaced by an average four-seamer this season. This favorable change in pitch mix is really the only reason for optimism in Gonzalez's profile, but rate stats do not support any long term improvement resulting from it. Barring desperation, rostering Gonzalez is inadvisable, except for very deep leagues.