RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target ~190
CURRENT ADP: ~210 overall
ANALYSIS:
With an ADP of 204, Foltynewicz is on average currently the 78th pitcher being drafted overall despite being one year removed from a 13 win, 2.85 ERA season. That’s largely in part to him following up his big 2018 with a terrible start to 2019 which saw him demoted in June with a 6.37 ERA in 59.1 IP. After a stint in Triple-A where he had a 3.86 ERA (3.24 FIP) across 10 starts, Foltynewicz returned to the Braves rotation and had an excellent second half of the season. His 2.65 ERA over 57.2 IP was a reminder of his capabilities he displayed the year before.
But coming into 2019, Foltynewicz only managed two innings during spring training due to an elbow injury and didn’t make his season debut until April 27th so maybe some rustiness and lack of normal preparation contributed to his early-season struggles. If you were to take Folty's 2018 numbers and even bake in a little regression, his 2020 numbers would be much closer to Max Fried and Zack Wheeler, two pitchers being drafted 70-85 spots ahead of him.
Even if you’re a bit less bullish on Foltynewicz than others, 75% of his last two seasons have been excellent, yet his draft cost is putting a much bigger emphasis on the 25%. His current draft position can carry some regression as a 3.84 ERA and over 200 Ks is someone being drafted around 120th overall so you should be able to draft Foltynewicz around 50 spots earlier than his ADP and still have a profit if he “only” matches his projections.
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