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ANALYSIS: Might as well start with the headliner. Montgomery has made waves with his back-to-back shutouts of KC and SD, good enough to rank #4 among SP in the past two weeks (Scherzer, Walker, Grienke, Montgomery). In 44.1 innings he has a 1.62 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and a 29/12 K/BB ratio.
He was a highly-regarded prospect back with the Royals (drafted 36th overall in 2008), but safe to say no one saw this coming. Montgomery doesn’t have dominating stuff; he uses five pitches including a sinker (31%), fourseam (26%), change (21%), curve (13%), and cutter (9%). Hitters were befuddled by his arsenal in June, mustering a .178 AVG and .213 BABIP. So can it last?
All the signs are pointing towards regression, and I fall in line with that train of thought. His 83.7% LOB rate is well above anything he put up the past four years in the minors and his BABIP in the minors hovered around .300. The projections are particularly rough on him, anticipating an ERA closer in the 4.30+ range. Hitters have made good contact and as stated before his stuff doesn’t blow away hitters.
The plus sides for Montgomery include a pitcher-friendly park and an above average defense behind him. It’d be easy to say add Montgomery and sell high, but who’s buying? For now I’d grab Montgomery and ride the train while the coal’s burning, including his start today at Oakland. But emotionally be ready to look elsewhere when he cools off.
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