RADIO
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This Thursday has nine games on the slate starting with the Cubs traveling to Pittsburgh to face the Pirates at 12:35PM. The Athletics head to Chicago to play the White Sox at 2:10PM. Unfortunately, I am going to skip those games and head straight into the later games. I will say that both Kyle Hendricks and Charlie Morton are in a hitters nightmare at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. That being said, you know the drill.
I am going to go game-by-game and exploit specific matchups and advise players based on potential and price.Simply put, I am looking for the cheapest player that should have a solid outing. My research is based on Batter vs Starting Pitcher (handedness) splits as well as park dimensions and recent performances. I will try to make each description as brief as possible but some games have plenty of matchups that need attention. Good luck today and follow me on Twitter for further advice or questions.
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Game by Game Analysis for DraftKings Lineups
Both Jarred Cosart and Tanner Roark have debatable matchups, so I would say leave them out of your lineup for today. The stadium is more lenient to RHB like Yunel Escobar, (.364 wOBA / 131 wRC+) who faces Cosart, a pitcher that struggles against RHB letting up a 1.82 HR/9. This is a green light for Escobar as well as Derek Dietrich (.380 wOBA / 141 wRC+). Dietrich is a cheap LHB, but Roark has had difficulty with LHB this season with only a 10.2 K% against them.
Another matchup between weak pitchers with Chris Tillman and Matt Moore. The park slightly favors LHB but hurts RHB. Still, Tillman and Moore should still be passed over. Both have relatively high ERA and are very susceptible to getting owned by really anyone that's at the plate. That being said, Nolan Reimold (.366 wOBA / 132 wRC+) takes on Moore who has been destroyed by RHB all season with an 8.22 ERA. This is a riskier play, but Steven Souza Jr. (.303 wOBA / 94 wRC+) could prove to be successful against Tillman who gives up a 7.33 ERA to opposing RHB. This focuses on Tillman and his potential to be hit hard rather than the chances that Souza can get a hit, but I like the matchup nonetheless.
Corey Kluber is getting the start Thursday, and his high price is the one of two thing that keep me from biting. A 10.23 K/9 with 31.2 K% against RHB this season looks tasty, but a 4.14 ERA vs LHB is a little daunting given the fact the LHB he faces today are going to be tough (Eris Hosmer [.383 wOBA / 145 wRC+], Kendrys Morales [.376 wOBA / 140 wRC+], and Ben Zobrist [.367 wOBA / 134 wRC+]). I am just highlighting matchups to those that believe the numbers but I would choose to stick with Kluber, if you can afford it.
The biggest exploitation in this game would be Matt Wisler and his 2.21 HR/9 against LHB. Braves stadium may be a problem for RHB but LHB have the advantage. This would be a chance to capitalize on the cheap price of Ryan Goins (.305 wOBA / 90 wRC+). His numbers may not show it, but this is a perfect matchup for Goins to dominate a struggling pitcher. Goins has also gotten a hit in both games against the Braves this series and Thursday could make it a streak.
Lance McCullers destroys LHB this season with a 10.46 K/9 and 2.87 ERA. Against RHB a 19.3 K% is slightly above average but will not face any serious threats from RHB this game. Colby Lewis is significantly better against RHB than LHB with a 20.3 K% and 13.8 K% respectively. This could be a chance to take switch hitter, Hank Conger (.380 wOBA / 144 wRC+) has dominated RHP as a LHB and his low price makes this one of the top value picks for today.
I hate the fact that Target Field favors RHB because it is the only factor keeping Hector Santiago from being a must-absolute start today. His 3.78 ERA vs RHB is impressive but not enough to ensure that Santiago will produce against the Twins. The Twins have some power from the right side of the plate, but, I still like Santiago and his 8.37 K/9 and 21.8 K% against RHB. Santiago is a solid pitcher and should have plenty of strikeouts against the Twins. The Angels offense always has Mike Trout as a constant production of home runs and points, but Chris Iannetta (.311 wOBA / 101 wRC+) is slightly above average against LHP and should be able to produce off of Tommy Milone and is 15.8 K% against RHB.
John Lackey and Jimmy Nelson have one thing in common. Facing a LHB has been a stressful situation this season. Lackey has a solid 2.91 ERA vs LHB but a 5.09 K/9 and 13.0 K% is well below average. Lackey should be able to handle the Brewers but might struggle to get strikeouts, making him a very risky but rewarding option. Nelson on the other hand has simply had trouble keeping LHB from scoring. Nelson has a 5.58 ERA vs LHB but an 18.6 K% and 7.73 K/9 which makes him a difficult decision when facing players like Matt Carpenter (.378 wOBA / 142 wRC+) and Jason Heyward (.361 wOBA / 130 wRC+).
Pitchers to Target for DraftKings
Corey Kluber (CLE) - $12,300
Lance McCullers (HOU) - $9,900
Hector Santiago (LAA) - $8,800
John Lackey (STL) - $9,700
Infielders to Target on DraftKings
Yunel Escobar (3B/SS, WAS) - 4,000
Derek Dietrich (3B/OF, MIA) - $3,100
Eric Hosmer (1B, KC) - $3,700
Kendrys Morales (1B, KC) - $3,500
Ben Zobrist (2B/OF, KC) - $3,600
Ryan Goins (2B/SS, TOR) - $2,500
Hank Conger (C, HOU) - $3,200
Chris Iannetta (C, LAA) - $2,900
Matt Carpenter (3B, STL) - $4,300
Outfielders to Target for DraftKings
Nolan Reimold (BAL) - $2,900
Steven Souza Jr. (TB) - $3,500
Mike Trout (LAA) - $4,900
Jason Heyward (STL) - $4,400
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