RADIO
Below are my DraftKings picks for Wednesday, September 16th, 2015. As always, remember to check your players to make sure they are in their MLB starting lineups before lineups lock.
My goal with these DFS picks, as always, is to try and identify MLB players who will outperform their expectations today, based on their matchups and FanDuel prices. These players can be high-cost players, or they can be value pick sleepers, but we are always looking for players that have a chance to return the greatest value for your DFS lineups. Let’s get to it.
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MLB & DraftKings DFS Game Notes
- As of this writing, there is a slight chance of rain in Minnesota. And as crazy as it sounds, there is also a chance of rain in San Francisco. Crazy to think that there could be wet weather in San Fran, amiright?
- Studs and scrubs. That’s the name of the game today. There are a few stud pitchers set to toe the rubber but mostly a ton of middle-of-the-road guys are set to start. Makes for great hitter conditions on the cheap.
- Jake Arrieta very well might win the NL Cy Young Award and is a dark horse MVP candidate. He is the most expensive pitcher on the board for Wednesday. He has pitched 16 straight quality starts and will look to close the gap between the Cubs and the Pirates. For whatever reason, the algorithms do not like him Wednesday night. Maybe fade him.
- For stacking purposes, look no further than the Houston Astros. After having given up the division lead on Tuesday night, look for them to come back with a vengeance on Wednesday against LHP Martin Perez.
- Stack the Phillies? If you can afford a few extra lineups, it may pay off to start a mini-stack of three or four Phillies against lefty Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez isn’t a terrible pitcher, but he doesn’t have the stuff nor the command to scare anyone. In fact, one of my lineups will feature nothing but Phillies and Nationals hitters.
DFS Pitchers to Consider for DraftKings
David Price, TOR - $12,500
Your high-end top pitcher option on the day is going to be Price, and it’s going to be a run away. The Blue Jays will enter Wednesday night’s game as the top favorite. Atlanta has been reeling for what seems like an eternity. In fact, the Braves are last in two metrics I use to gauge a team’s success- 79 wRC+ and .288 wOBA- in the second half. Ride Price heavily in a lot of lineups.
Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA - $8,800
Another team that has been slumping in the second half is the California Anaheim Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Running the risk of sounding like a broken record, the Angels own the third worst wRC+ (86) and the second worst wOBA (.289) during the exact same time span as explained above. Iwakuma may give up a run or two, but he makes for a safe second pitcher play.
Robbie Ray, ARI - $7,000, Alex Wood, LAD - $6,600
I am grouping Ray and Wood here together because their risk/reward values are nearly identical. Both Wood and Ray will be favorites when they take their respective mounds. Ray has more upside in the strikeout department but Wood will have a MUCH higher probability rate for that win. Ray and Wood are tournament plays at best.
DFS Infielders to Consider for DraftKings
CATCHERS
Derek Norris, SD - $3,300
The San Diego catcher is dealing with a right hand injury and missed his start on Tuesday night. In case you outright need me to decipher the hidden meaning in the first sentence, it means you need to be vigilant in monitoring Norris’s status if you roster him. If he does go, know that he owns Ray in a sample size of six at-bats. He is also tagging lefties this season to the tune of a .324 wOBA and 108 wRC+, which is surprisingly down from his career respective numbers of .364 and 135. Chase Field helps too.
Carlos Ruiz, PHI - $2,500
Cameron Rupp, PHI - $2,300
It might be better to just punt the catcher position on Wednesday night. Both of Philadelphia’s catchers come in near the minimum price and both actually have some type of success against Nationals starter Gio Gonzalez. Ruiz is a career lefty masher and Rupp actually rates second on the day for all catchers based on RotoBaller’s hitter matchup ratings.
FIRST BASE
Joey Votto, CIN - $4,400
The suspension is looming for Votto after he appealed last week. He should still be good to go Wednesday night, he makes for phenomenal value. This is an on-base machine that is listed as the eighth-most expensive player at his position, despite displaying a .474 OBP, .381wOBA and 140 wRC+ over the last two weeks. Plus, he will get a hittable Jake Peavy.
Darin Ruf, PHI - $2,100
In terms of punt options, it doesn’t get any better than Ruf at first base. He owns Gonzalez for his career and figures to bat high in the lineup. Now, this all depends on the Phillies knowing what they are doing, and the evidence is mounting that they do not.
SECOND BASE
Brian Dozier, MIN - $4,300
Tigers starter Daniel Norris may live in a van down by the river, but he pitches like motivational speak and Chris Farley look-a-like Matt Foley. Norris will be a solid pitcher in this league for many seasons. Unfortunately that does not start Wednesday night. Look for Dozier to get on base early and often.
Anthony Rendon, WAS - $4,000
Rendon has been leading off as of late and it has been paying off. In four games since being inserted at the top of the lineup, he has 10 hits in 20 plate appearances, including one double, one home run, three runs scored, two runs batted in and a walk. Basically, he is in the middle of a hot streak.
SHORTSTOP
Carlos Correa, HOU - $5,100
I have not played Correa once this season in DFS. Tonight will be the night. Southpaw Martin Perez does not scare anyone and has the potential to give up about four home runs to the Astro hitters. I love Correa tonight for maybe two home runs.
THIRD BASE
David Wright, NYM - $4,400
The New York captain has made a living crushing left-handed pitching for his career and he has done the same, albeit in a small sample size, this season. And a guy like Adam Conley certainly isn’t going to change any of that.
Jake Lamb, ARI - $3,300
For a cheaper option, Lamb provides a ton of upside against hittable right-handed pitching. He has been rather hot over the last two weeks with a .409 woBA as well. He gets home run prone Andrew Cashner in cozy Chase Field Wednesday night.
DFS Outfielders to Consider for DraftKings
Bryce Harper, WAS - $5,900
Don’t care about the price. He is completely dialed in right now and is hitting in that sandbox in Philadelphia. I am putting this guy in to 100% of all my lineups Wednesday night. You should think about making room and doing the same.
George Springer, HOU - $4,500
I love this price for a guy that has great homerun/speed potential and is facing a not-so-good left-handed pitcher. If Springer is leading off, look out. He could really enter a different universe in points.
David Peralta, ARI - $3,300
Am I missing something on Peralta? Dude is crushing right-handed pitching this season to the tune of a .384 wOBA and is still prices as low as he is. I don’t get it. Oh well. He also owns Cashner 18 career at bats. Looks like Peralta and Harper will be form the foundation of all of my lineups on the night.
DFS Q&A with Max Petrie @ 6 PM on 9/16
Leave your question here and then come back at 6 PM when Max answers everything. For our regular MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat, click here.
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