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MLB DFS Pitching Primer for 4/22
We will be releasing our premium MLB DFS pitching picks every single day of the week for the entire MLB and fantasy baseball season and postseason, at least a few hours before games begin that day.
Short slate Thursday with some day games and a lot of teams getting the day off. We have just five games on the main slate, leaving us with a pretty bare-boned group of arms to choose from. Here are my recommendations.
High-Priced Aces
These are your studs who are worth paying up for on this slate. It makes sense to deploy these guys as your cash game plays on FanDuel and as your SP1 on DraftKings based on their high floor/ceiling combination.
Walker Buehler ($9,800 FD, $10,000 DK) vs. Padres
Buehler is the only pitcher that falls into the "ace" consideration on this slate, but even he has been underwhelming for DFS purposes this year with just a dozen strikeouts in 18 innings. His velocity is noticeably down this year, which maybe is not concerning for right now with just three starts under his belt, but if it doesn't correct soon it's going to become an issue. The match-up is also a tough one against a Padres team that will certainly be rolling out their best unit tonight in this rivalry game.
The good news is that Buehler is a solid favorite (-180 right now), and that he has still been awesome at run prevention even without the strikeout working for him. He has a strong 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his 18 innings despite facing some tough lineups so far (he pitched in Coors and then faced the Nationals and Padres so far). The other encouraging sign to me was his increased curveball usage in his last outing. For his first two starts he threw his four-seamer nearly 70% of the time, he brought that down below 50% last time out and started using his secondary stuff. This to me is just another sign of him easing into the season a little bit, not wanting to put too much on his arm with 25+ starts ahead of him. I would expect another step forward for Buehler tonight, and I think he puts up a pretty nice score here. With the other options on the board, he's tough to pass up.
Cristian Javier ($9,800 DK, $7,300 FD) vs. Angels
This is a gross price for Javier on DraftKings, but you are forced to pick two starters on that site so he must be mentioned. Only three pitchers on this slate have strikeout rates above 22% over the last three seasons, and Javier is one of them (Buehler and Weathers the others). Strikeouts are what you are looking for on DraftKings especially, and he can certainly pile up some of those.
The issue is that he's been victimized by left-handed bats (.452 slugging percentage, 1.85 HR/9) in his young career, which could give him some trouble against Shohei Ohtani and Jared Walsh. It's not like the Angels' righties are any walk in the park either (David Fletcher, Mike Trout, and the possibly resurgent Justin Upton). This start could certainly go very poorly for Javier, but given that he's probably the second-best bet on the slate for ten strikeouts, you have to consider him.
Mid-Tier Pivots
These are potentially underpriced and/or just "safe" options to play if you don't have the money for stud pitchers.
Alex Cobb ($8,700 FD, $7,700 DK) vs. Astros
Two weeks ago I would never have thought I would be making this recommendation even on a three-game slate. Cobb has been one of the most hittable pitchers in the league over the last handful of years, but he looks like a different guy in 2021. I might never say that again after this tough start against the Astros (who now have Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman back), but for now we should note what Cobb has been able to do this year.
The righty has a 32.5% CSW% rate this year and a remarkable 19.1% swinging-strike rate. Most of that success has come on his splitter, his most commonly used pitch. He has a 30.7% swinging-strike rate on that offering with a 54% ground-ball rate. It's been an awesome weapon.
The question is, can he really sustain throwing this many splitters? His other two pitches have not been nearly as good, and his sinker outright stinks with a 3.1% swinging-strike rate and a 10% barrel rate. He will need to have some luck with the sinker tonight to set up the splitter, but if he does that he could very well pay off these price tags.
Nick Pivetta ($8,200 FD, $7,400 DK) vs. Mariners
This is the only pitcher with a real favorable match-up, as the Mariners have a huge 28% strikeout rate this year (the number you see above is 2019-2021 data). Pivetta can get some strikeouts (14 in 14.2 innings this year), and he has added some velocity to his fastball since 2020. That is the good news. The bad news is that he's still struggling mightily with command and has walked 11 batters this year. It doesn't really matter what lineup you're facing, if you're walking a batter every inning it's likely not going to be a good start.
The upside is pretty huge for Pivetta here, and he is really the only pitcher with a match-up to write home about, making him a good tournament option and someone you probably have to consider cash as well given the other options.
Bargain Bin
These are cheap pitchers with upside, but often big risk as well.
Trevor Williams ($6,800 FD, $8,500 DK) vs. Mets
The price is too heavy for me on DraftKings, but Williams is a nice value on FanDuel. He is a low strikeout guy, but he has the ability to locate and deduce weak contact when he's going right. That means he could turn this into a quality start and a win with some luck, and that will go a long way to getting you where you need to be at $6,800 on FanDuel. He's a plug-your-nose, jump in, and hope the rest of the pitchers on the slate get blown up option tonight, but you can do a lot worse.
My basic tip here is that it's not a great night to play a bunch of cash games. With such a low number of games and all the crazy variations we see on the pitching side of the game, randomness is sure to rule tonight. It's a good night to risk less bankroll and take a shot at some tournaments.
Cash Game Rankings
- Walker Buehler
- Trevor Williams (FD only)
- Nick Pivetta
GPP Rankings
- Walker Buehler
- Cristian Javier
- Nick Pivetta / Alex Cobb
