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The 2021 MLB is underway and there is a ton of excitement surrounding it! It was a long offseason, but we have finally reached the beginning of the MLB season. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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A couple of games we can look at today include the Royals at Tigers, Yankees at Indians, and Nationals at Mets.
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Royals @ Tigers
More or Less Contest
Matthew Boyd less than 4.5 strikeouts and Brady Singer more than 4.5 strikeouts
Matthew Boyd is certainly capable of reaching five strikeouts as he has done it in two of his four starts this season, but Kansas City will be no easy task for him. They are currently posting the fifth-lowest K rate against lefties over the previous 10 days with a rate of just 17.6%. They are also posting a respectable wRC+ mark of 108, so it is feasible they could get to Boyd early. This is another reason to like the less than here as it took him 7 1/3 innings pitched to reach the five strikeout threshold in his last start against Oakland. That seems unlikely in this situation for Boyd.
Brady Singer has gone over 4.5 strikeouts in all three of his starts this season and even managed to get six Angels, which is no easy feat. He will be facing a Tigers lineup that is currently striking out at a clip of nearly 26% vs. right-handers, which has them ranked 12th-worst over the previous 10 days. The Tigers are also only walking at a rate of 7.1% across that same span, which has them ranked 10th-worst in the league. This tells me Singer is less likely to get in trouble with issuing free passes and should help him stay in the game longer to achieve the five strikeouts needed to go over the prop.
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Yankees @ Indians
More or Less Contest
Shane Bieber more than 10.5 strikeouts and Gerrit Cole more than 9.5 strikeouts
Shane Bieber has been tremendous to start the season as he has struck out double-digit hitters in each of his four starts on the season. He has also gone over 10.5 strikeouts in three of his four starts to begin 2021. He will be facing the Yankees in this matchup who have a strikeout rate of 26% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks 11th-worst in baseball. They have also struggled to score runs vs. righties as they are posting a wRC+ mark of just 68, which ranks second-worst in the league over that same span. Bieber is getting the Yankees at the right time in this one.
Gerrit Cole has gone over this total in two of his four starts on the season. He will be facing an Indians' lineup that has struggled vs. right-handers lately as they are posting a K rate of nearly 30% across the previous 10 days, which ranks fourth-worst in the league. They are also struggling to get on base as they have a walk rate of just 5.8% across the previous 10 days and are also posting a wRC+ mark of just 68. These have them ranked third-worst and second-worst in the league, respectively.
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Nationals @ Mets
More or Less Contest
Joe Ross less than 4.5 strikeouts and Marcus Stroman less than 4.5 strikeouts
While Joe Ross has reached five strikeouts twice this season, both times came against the St. Louis Cardinals who are posting a K rate of 26.4% vs. righties over the previous 10 days, which ranks eighth-worst in the league over that span. Enter the New York Mets who are only posting a K rate of 21.6% vs. righties over that span, which ranks as the eighth-best in the league. The Mets are not striking out a ton and that is the type of team Ross would need to be facing to get over this hump.
Marcus Stroman gets a tough matchup vs. the Nationals who are only striking out at a clip of 20.6% vs. righties over the previous 10 days, which ranks fifth-best in baseball over that span. He has only struck out over 4.5 once this season, and it came in his last start against the Rockies where he only achieved five strikeouts in that game across eight innings pitched. This is very notable as the Rockies are posting the fifth-highest K rate against righties over the previous 10 days with a mark of 29.4%. He may also be on a shorter leash in this one after having thrown eight innings in that start.
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