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The 2021 MLB is underway and there is a ton of excitement surrounding it! It was a long offseason, but we have finally reached the beginning of the MLB season. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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Today, we will look at the Dodgers at Cubs and Diamondbacks at Marlins.
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Dodgers@ Cubs
More or Less Contest
Trevor Bauer more than 5.5 strikeouts and Kris Bryant less than 1.5 hits+walks
This number is way too low for Bauer even when you consider it is a seven-inning game. The seven-inning game should not have much of an effect on the starting pitcher and Bauer is in a great spot here facing a Cubs team that is striking out a 26.5% rate vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks 10th-worst in baseball. Bauer has also gone over 5.5 strikeouts in every single start this season.
Kris Bryant has started the season hot and is also 18 for his last 47 (.383) with six walks. While these numbers are impressive and would point to a more than play, the seven-inning game does come into play here with the hitters. Bryant's at-bats will likely be cut down by one, which gives him roughly 3-4 tries to reach this total. Given that he will be facing Bauer for at least two and perhaps three (if not all) of those at-bats, odds point to him going under the total here.
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Diamondbacks @ Marlins
More or Less Contest
Sandy Alcantara less than 6.5 strikeouts and Riley Smith less than 3.5 strikeouts
I know this number probably looks solid for Sandy, but the Diamondbacks are striking out at a rate of just 19.7% against right-handers over the previous 10 days, which ranks sixth-best in baseball. He has also only gone over this total three times and they came against the Giants, Rays, and Cardinals. All of these teams have had some high K rates against righties at some point in the season, but the same cannot be said for Arizona as they have been consistently solid in terms of K rate against righties thus far in 2021.
Riley Smith is a mixed bag and has started and worked out of the pen in 2021. He has one game against the Padres in which he has struck out more than 3.5 hitters and that was his first start of the season when he was largely unknown. Since that start, he has struck out 7 hitters across 12 innings pitched. With his workload being unknown heading into this one, it is probably best to lean on the less than here.
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