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Hello everybody and welcome! The 2021 MLB season and alive and well and that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For MLB, Single Stat consists of pitcher strikeout props in which you determine if the pitcher in question will go over or under their projected strikeout total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. For today's article, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Single Stat pitchers and explain why a pitcher will or will not go over their projected strikeout total. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Single Stat MLBP Totals
Zach Plesac over 5 strikeouts - The Reds should be a solid matchup for Plesac tonight as they are posting a K rate of 29.2% against right-handed pitching over the previous 10 days, which is ranked third-worst in baseball over that span behind only the Phillies and Tigers. Plesac has only gone over this total twice in 2021, but he was able to do it vs. the Tigers and was able to do it in his last start against the White Sox. His last start against the White Sox felt like a "get right" start for him and I would look for him to pitch well in this one.
Charlie Morton over 6.5 strikeouts - I love this matchup for Charlie Morton as the Phillies rank second-worst in terms of K rate vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days with a rate of 30.9%. They also rank worst against right-handers in terms of wRC+ over the previous 10 days with a mark of just 42. These numbers are no small sample size either as they span across 269 plate appearances. Morton has struck out at least six in all but his first start in 2021 and this is a spot where he should certainly be able to get over the prop.
Zac Gallen over 6 strikeouts - Zac Gallen gets a solid matchup vs. a Mets team that has been struggling lately. Over the previous 10 days, they are posting a K rate of 25.7% against right-handed pitchers, which ranks seventh-worst in baseball over that span. They are also posting just an 88 wRC+ mark over that same span. Gallen has reached six strikeouts in every single start in 2021 and has gone over six twice. The worst-case scenario in this is most likely is a push, but he should be able to get over the hump against a struggling Mets squad.
Austin Gomber under 5 strikeouts - I know Gomber has had some solid starts in 2021, but this is a terrible matchup for him. The Cardinals are the best team in baseball in terms of K rate vs. lefties on the season as they have a rate of just 17.4%. They also have the third-best wRC+ mark against lefties on the season with a mark of 128. Gomber has faced the Diamondbacks and Giants in back-to-back starts, both of which are solid vs. lefties, and he failed to reach more than four strikeouts in either of those starts. I would expect a similar result in this one.
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