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Hello everybody and welcome! The 2021 MLB season and alive and well and that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For MLB, Single Stat consists of pitcher strikeout props in which you determine if the pitcher in question will go over or under their projected strikeout total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. For today's article, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Single Stat pitchers and explain why a pitcher will or will not go over their projected strikeout total. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Single Stat MLBP Totals
Jordan Montgomery over 5.5 strikeouts - The Tampa Bay Rays have had horrific K rates against left-handers this season and are now posting a K rate of 30.1% over the previous 10 days, which is ranked fourth-worst in baseball over that span. While Montgomery has had some issues with the Rays in the past, he did manage to strike out nine of them in a start on May 11th. He has also struck out 20 Rays across 17 innings pitched thus far in 2021.
David Peterson under 4.5 strikeouts - It is simply best not to pick on the Diamondbacks with left-handers. Currently, they are posting a K rate of just 16.4% over the previous 1o days, which is ranked fifth-best in baseball. They are also posting a wRC+ mark of 138 vs. lefties, which is ranked fourth-best in baseball over the previous 10 days. Peterson also faced the Diamondbacks back on May 7th and only managed strike out three and also only lasted 1 2/3 innings as he allowed three earned runs and walked three in the shortened outing.
Walker Buehler under 7 strikeouts - Buehler just posted a dud in terms of strikeout performance against the San Francisco Giants where he only managed to strike out three across six innings pitched and they had a K rate inside the bottom 10 vs. right-handers when he faced them. Now, he will be facing the St. Louis Cardinals who are posting a K rate of 22.2% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked eighth-best in baseball over that span. I was on the over train in Buehler's last start, but the same will not be true tonight.
Lance Lynn over 5.5 strikeouts - This is a tad risky as the Indians are only striking out at a rate of 17.6% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked second-best in baseball, but I saw this number as high as 7.5 this morning, which tells me there is some reason to go over. Lynn has faced the Indians twice this season and has struck out 12 across 11 innings pitched. Lynn has also gone over this total in all but three starts on the season. The fact that the Indians are also just posting an 84 wRC+ helps the idea that Lynn can go long in this one to the point where he would get over the total as well.
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