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The 2021 MLB Season is moving along nicely and we are having a ton of fun with pitcher strikeouts props so far. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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Tonight, we will look at some props from the Reds at Twins and Athletics at Rangers.
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Reds at Twins
More or Less Contest
Tyler Mahle more than 5.5 strikeouts and J.A. Happ less than 4.5 strikeouts
Mahle appears to have his number set a bit low here as he has gone over this total in each of his previous four starts. He will be going up against a Twins team that is currently strikeout out against right-handers at a rate of 24.7% over the previous 10 days, which is ranked 10th-worst in the league. Mahle has also been solid on the road as he has posted a 1.63 ERA with 59 strikeouts across 49 2/3 innings pitched.
Happ has a tough matchup in this one as the Reds are striking out at a rate of just 21.6% against left-handers over the previous 10 days. They will also have the benefit of adding the DH, which means Mahle will not have to bat and give Happ an auto strikeout or two. The Reds are also posting a 10.8% walk rate and 115 wRC+ mark over the previous 10 days, which should make things difficult for Happ. Happ has also gone over this total just three times in 12 starts this season.
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Athletics at Rangers
More or Less Contest
Frankie Montas more than 5.5 strikeouts and Kyle Gibson more than 4.5 strikeouts
Montas is a tough nut to crack, but perhaps he has figured something out recently as he now has gone over this total in five of his previous six starts. While the Rangers are posting a solid K rate against right-handers over the previous 10 days, they have been known to strike out quite a bit vs. them on the season and they are also posting just a 96 wRC+ mark over that same 10 day span. Given this information, I am going to lean with Montas recent success and recommend the more than. He is also posting a solid 3.13 ERA on the road compared to his 4.67 home ERA.
The Athletics are currently striking out at a rate of 21.1% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked 13th-worst in baseball over that span. Gibson has gone over this total in two of his previous three starts and four of his previous seven. He is also posting a ridiculous .96 ERA at home this season and has 32 strikeouts across 32 2/3 innings pitched. If he is able to have some success tonight at home, he should be able to get deep enough to go over this total.
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