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The 2021 MLB Season is moving along nicely and we are having a ton of fun with pitcher strikeouts props so far. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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Tonight, we will look at some props from the Dodgers at Pirates, Nationals at Rays, and Indians at Cardinals.
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Dodgers @ Pirates
More or Less Contest
Walker Buehler less than 7.5 strikeouts and JT Brubaker more than 4.5 strikeouts
Buehler has been all over the place in terms of strikeout totals this season and has been under this total in three of his previous four starts. This matchup is actually tough from a strikeout standpoint as the Pirates are only striking out at a rate of 20.1% against right-handers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked fifth-best in baseball. They are also posting a respectable walk rate of 8.9% and a wRC+ mark of 94, so they may not be quite the pushover people expect.
Brubaker has been pretty solid this season and has gone over this total in all but three starts this season. The Dodgers have been a strong offense, but have also shown the propensity to strike out as they are posting a K rate of 26.8% vs. right-handers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked eighth-worst in baseball. They are also posting a surprising 68 wRC+ mark over the previous 10 days, which should help Brubaker be able to get deep enough to go over the total as well.
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Nationals at Rays
More or Less Contest
Tyler Glasnow more than 8.5 strikeouts and Jon Lester more than 3.5 strikeouts
Glasnow has been superb at home and has gone over 8.5 strikeouts in all five of his home starts. He will be facing a Nationals squad that is striking out at a rate of 25% against right-handed pitchers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked in the bottom half of baseball. They are also posting just a 61 wRC+ mark over the previous 10 days vs. righties, which is ranked third-worst in baseball over that span. This appears to be a great spot for Glasnow.
Jon Lester could be a tight prop, but the Rays have been awful against left-handers this season and are currently posting a K rate of 24.3% over the previous 10 days and are pairing that with a wRC+ mark of just 69. The Rays have gone up against a left-handed starter 22 times this season and only one of them (Cole Irvin on May 9th) failed to reach four strikeouts.
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Indians @ Cardinals
More or Less Contest
Shane Bieber less than 9.5 strikeouts and Carlos Martinez less than 4.5 strikeouts
I used to be all over Shane Bieber's props when they were under the double-digit threshold, but he has not been that guy recently as he has reached 10 strikeouts in just one of his previous six starts and that was against Detroit. St. Louis is posting a K rate that is not great, but also is not near the top of the league with a rate of 25.7% against right-handers over the previous 10 days. While this game is in an NL park and could help Bieber, I actually think it could hurt him in the way that he could be pinch-hit for in a situation where he might normally be left in the game if it were in an AL park. This prop will likely be tight, but I like the less than here.
The Indians are only striking out at a rate of 19.2% against right-handers over the previous 10 days, which is ranked third-best in baseball over the previous 10 days. They are also posting a wRC+ mark of 101, which is very respectable. Martinez has only reached five strikeouts in two starts all season and is not likely to get there tonight.
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