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The 2021 MLB Season is moving along nicely and we are having a ton of fun with pitcher strikeouts props so far. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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Today, we will look at a couple of games including the Reds at Cubs and Blue Jays at Red Sox.
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Reds @ Cubs
More or Less Contest
Luis Castillo less than 6.5 strikeouts and Alec Mills more than 4.5 strikeouts
Castillo has certainly been better since the start of the season, but the Cubs K rate vs. right-handers is dropping like a rock and now sits at just 21.5% over the previous 10 days, which ranks 11th-best in baseball. They are also posting a solid 103 wRC+ mark, which is certainly respectable over that span. Castillo has gone over this total in each of his previous two starts, but had failed to reach it in the previous four prior to those and has also failed to reach this total in two previous starts against these Cubs.
While the Reds are striking out at just a rate of 22.0% over the previous 10 days, Mills has shown the ability to get over 4.5 strikeouts in three of his previous four starts. He also faced the Reds on July 2nd and struck out nine of them. His number sitting at 3.5 today is a little curious and the more than looks like a solid play in this day game.
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Home Run Blast: Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Home Run Blast Contest
George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, and Kike Hernandez to combine for more than .5 home runs
We will start this contest with the Blue Jays hitters. Springer has been on fire lately and has four home runs with a 1.085 OPS across his previous 41 at-bats. Hed will be facing left-hander, Eduardo Rodriguez, and this is a great thing because Rodriguez has allowed 10 home runs to right-handed hitters. For his career, Springer has posted an .892 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers and has gone deep 53 times. Teoscar has also been hot as he has a .922 OPS with four home runs across his previous 3- at-bats. For his career, he has hit 49 bombs against left-handed pitchers and he is also 7-for-17 with three home runs against Rodriguez.
Kike Hernandez is in a good spot tonight vs. Blue Jays left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu as he has allowed 12 home runs to right-handed hitters this season. Hernandez has three home runs and a 1.010 OPS over his previous 46 at-bats and has a history of success against left-handed pitching. In his career, he has 45 home runs vs. lefties and an .830 OPS. In 2021, Hernandez has an .887 OPS and eight bombs off left-handers, so he should be in a good spot tonight.
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