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Although we have had some bumps along the way this MLB season, the show continues to move forward for the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.
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As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Friday, August 28th presents a big slate of games to choose from. We can look to attack the Pirates at Brewers and Indians at Cardinals.
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More or Less Contest - Corbin Burnes more than 4.5 strikeouts and Derek Holland less than 4.5 strikeouts
Corbin Burnes will be facing a Pirates team that has posted a 26% k rate vs. right-handed pitchers over the previous two weeks, which ranks seventh-highest in baseball. Burnes has also reached this total in every single start this season, including striking out seven Pirates in his most recent start on the 23rd. Add in the fact that the Pirates are walking the least amount in baseball vs. righties in the previous two weeks (as noted by their 5.0% BB rate) and you have a sound play here.
Derek Holland has managed to go over this total by one strikeout in his previous two starts vs. the Brew Crew, but this time should be different. For starters, this will be the third time the Brewers have seen Holland, which should favor the hitters. Also, the Brewers have the ninth-lowest K rate vs. lefties over the previous two weeks with a rate of 20.3%. They are also walking at a 12.8% clip vs. lefties in that same span, which has them ranked fourth in the league. This will be a close play, but the under is where I would go.
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More or Less Contest: Luis Urias less than 1.5 hits/walks
Luis Urias less than 1.5 hits/walks: This seems like a relatively safe bet as Urias only has produced four walks since August 10th. He has also only gone over this total five times in the last 14 games, which should bode well for the less than. As an aside, he is also just 1/4 with no walks in his previous four AB vs. Holland this season.
Indians @ Cardinals: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Daniel Ponce de Leon less than 4.5 strikeouts and Triston McKenzie more than 4.5 strikeouts
This is a bit of a tough call on Ponce de Leon, but if recent trends show anything, it could be a short day for him. The Indians currently are posting a 21.0% K rate vs. right-handers over the previous two weeks, which is good for eighth-best in the league. They are also walking at a rate of 14.5% vs. righties in that same span, which is far and away the best mark in baseball. Ponce de Leon has struggled mightily with walks this season as he has given 10 free passes in his first 12 IP. This could get him in trouble early and is the main reason I like the under. He certainly has the stuff to K five Indians, but they have been getting much better in terms of strikeouts lately.
Triston McKenzie showed why he was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball last week when he struck out 10 Tigers across six innings. Tonight, he gets the Cardinals and the 4.5 total just seems too low for a pitcher with the stuff that McKenzie has. While the Cardinals are only striking out 21.1% vs. righties over the previous two weeks, they are only posting a 107 wRC+, which ranks them 16th in baseball. I think he lasts long enough to get to five and goes over the total.
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