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Monday marks the beginning of the sixth week of the MLB season, and many teams are now nearing the halfway point in their seasons. 30 games is still a small sample for most metrics, though, so fantasy players should still rely on multiple season's worths of data (when possible) when making DFS decisions.
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Monday is a relatively quiet MLB day with nine games on the slate, but there are several attractive prop bets available at MKF. I'll be making MKF picks every Monday, so check back again next week for more opportunities.
A's @ Rangers: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest #1
Lance Lynn more than 6.5 strikeouts, Jesus Luzardo more than 5.5 strikeouts
Lance Lynn more than 6.5 strikeouts:
Lynn has been great so far this season with six or more strikeouts in each of his first six starts, and the Rangers have let him go deep into games as he’s thrown more than 100 pitches in all of his starts as well. Lynn tends to rely primarily on an elite fastball (54% usage rate last season, 57.5% this year) to rack up strikeouts as the pitch posted an impressive 16% swinging-strike rate last season and has been strong again so far this season with a 13.7% mark. The A’s are a worse than average team at making contact against fastballs with a 10.4% swinging-strike rate against the pitch this season, so Lynn should be able to pick up at least seven strikeouts on Monday.
Jesus Luzardo more than 5.5 strikeouts:
Now fully stretched out, Luzardo threw 92 pitches in his last start -- an impressive seven strikeout performance against the Diamondbacks. Luzardo generates strikeouts with a dominant slurve, and the pitch should be a weapon against a Texas squad that has posted an 18.3% swinging-strike rate against sliders so far this season. Luzardo is also a heavy sinkerballer with the pitch representing more than a third of Luzardo’s pitches so far this season, and although sinkers are far from a weakness for the Rangers (.517 xwOBA against sinkers so far this season), the team isn’t particularly dangerous against the pitch either. As a result, Luzardo should be able to collect at least six strikeouts against the Rangers on Monday.
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More or Less Contest #2
Matt Olson less than 1.5 hits/walks, Joey Gallo more than 1.5 total bases
Matt Olson less than 1.5 hits/walks:
Olson is a remarkably poor fastball hitter with a .330 OBP and a 14.1% swinging-strike rate against four-seamers for his career. That’s bad news for his expected performance on Monday, as he’s slated to hit against a pitcher with an excellent fastball in Lance Lynn. If the A’s manage to break into the Texas bullpen then Olson has a solid chance of getting on base as the unit has allowed a .336 OBP for the season, but it’s hard to see Olson reaching base more than once even with the mediocre Texas bullpen, especially considering that the Rangers are comfortable letting Lynn work late into his starts.
Joey Gallo more than 1.5 total bases:
It’s generally a bad idea to bet against Gallo getting fewer than 1.5 total bases in a game given that he’s posted an xSLG significantly above .500 in each of the past two seasons, and that holds for Monday’s matchup. Gallo has posted an OPS above 1.000 against sinkers in each of the past three seasons plus a 1.455 mark so far this season, giving him a good chance to pick up at least two total bases against Luzardo, who has thrown his sinker more than 35% of the time so far this season. Gallo is significantly less effective against sliders (Luzardo’s second most used pitch), but Luzardo probably won’t last more than six full innings on Monday, giving Gallo at least one or two at-bats against an Oakland bullpen that’s struggled to contain home runs so far this season with 20 allowed over 105.1 innings. All of that makes Gallo picking up at least two total bases worth betting on.
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Marlins @ Nationals: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest #1
Pablo Lopez more than 4.5 strikeouts, Austin Voth less than 4.5 strikeouts
Pablo Lopez more than 4.5 strikeouts:
Lopez has had only one start with fewer than five strikeouts this season, and the Nationals do not appear likely to stop Lopez from collecting at least five strikeouts on Monday. Lopez has been great so far this season with a 2.42 ERA, and he’s done it with a 26% strikeout rate backed by an impressive 14.7% swinging-strike rate. Lopez’s changeup does the most damage with a ridiculous 25% swinging-strike rate so far this season, and it should play fairly well against a Nationals team that’s posted a near-15% swinging-strike rate against changeups so far this year. Not to be forgotten, Lopez’s fastball is also strong with a 15% swinging-strike rate this season, though the Nationals have been considerably more effective against fastballs this year with an 8.5% swinging-strike rate against the pitch. With all of that in mind, Lopez should manage to strike out at least five batters on Monday, making him worth betting on.
Austin Voth less than 4.5 strikeouts:
Voth has struck out more than three batters in only one start this season, and the Marlins are a poor matchup for the 28-year-old. Voth does most of his damage with a curveball that posted a 20% swinging-strike rate last season, but it’s been hittable so far this season with an 11.34% mark. To make matters worse, the Marlins have posted an excellent 6.7% swinging-strike rate against curveballs so far this season, so it’s unlikely that Voth will generate many whiffs on Monday. Combined with the fact that Voth doesn’t offer a ton of length and hasn’t thrown more than 86 pitches in a start this season, the Marlins’ ability to hit curveballs makes Voth picking up at least five strikeouts unlikely.
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More or Less Contest #2
Trea Turner more than 1.5 hits/walks, Jesus Aguilar more than 1.5 total bases
Trea Turner more than 1.5 hits/walks:
Turner owns a strong .364 OBP for the season so far, including a decent .313 OBP against changeups for his career and a solid .386 OPB against sinkers (Lopez’s third most used pitch). That gives Turner a good but not great chance of reaching base against Lopez, but he’ll also get to face a Miami bullpen that’s allowed a .348 OPB for the season, bolstering his chances of reaching base more than once on Monday. For what it’s worth, Turner has also been hot since the start of August with a .309 batting average and a .390 OBP, and Monday’s matchup against the Marlins shouldn’t slow him down.
Jesus Aguilar more than 1.5 total bases:
I’m not in love with the Turner leg of this prop, but the inclusion of Aguilar makes the prop worth betting on. As much as Voth’s curveball is the key to his strikeout potential, it’s his second most used pitch behind his fastball, which he throws nearly 60% of the time. Aguilar has never had trouble hitting fastballs with a .565 SLG against the pitch for his career, along with a .258 ISO. Voth’s fastball has been clobbered so far this season with a .623 xSLG, so Aguilar should have little trouble getting at least two bases even when considering that Voth’s fastball was significantly more effective last year with a .382 xSLG.
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