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The 2021 MLB is underway and there is a ton of excitement surrounding it! It was a long offseason, but we have finally reached the beginning of the MLB season. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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A few games we can look at today include the Padres at Pirates, Tigers at Astros, and Marlins at Braves.
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Padres @ Pirates
More or Less Contest
Blake Snell more than 7.5 strikeouts and Chad Kuhl less than 4.5 strikeouts
Snell has started the season very strong as he has thrown 9 2/3 innings while striking out 16. He has struck out eight hitters in each game he has started this season and gets a tremendous matchup in this one vs. the Pirates. The pirates are currently striking out at a clip of 34.4%, which is ranked second-worst in baseball. They are also posting just an 86 wRC+ mark, which means Snell should be able to navigate this lineup smoothly and reach the total.
Chad Kuhl has minor strikeout upside as he has struck out seven across his first seven innings pitched. He struck out five Reds in his previous start and the Reds are currently posting a K rate of 20.4%, which is ranked fourth-best in baseball, however, the Padres are even better with a rate of 17.6% and that is ranked the best in baseball. Quite frankly, the Padres have been solid thus far vs. right-handers and this number seems to be set about one strikeout too high for Kuhl in this matchup.
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Tigers @ Astros
More or Less Contest
Jake Odorizzi less than 5.5 strikeouts and Matthew Boyd less than 4.5 strikeouts
Odorizzi certainly has the stuff to strike out five Tigers as they currently have a K rate of 26.7% vs. right-handed pitching, but I do not think he goes deep enough in this one to get over the hump. He only threw a total of four innings in spring training and it is unlikely he saw enough real action at the alternate site to go more than four innings in tonight's start. There are also reports out there that he could be capped around 80 pitches. The Tigers hitters have also seen Odorizzi for a combined 127 plate appearances and are posting just a 23.6% K rate through those appearances.
Boyd has a tough matchup in this one vs. the Astros. Currently, Houston is posting just a 15.5(!) strikeouts rate against left-handed pitchers, which is ranked tops in baseball. They are also posting a 170 wRC+ mark, which is also ranked number one in baseball. Boyd certainly has the stuff to strike out five as he got eight Twins in his last start, but this matchup is the worst possible matchup for him, currently.
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Marlins @ Braves
More or Less Contest
Max Fried more than 5.5 strikeouts and Pablo Lopez more than 4.5 strikeouts
Fried will start Tuesday's game one start after having a comebacker off his leg, but all accounts point to him being ready to go. In his last start, he was beaten up in two innings for five runs by the Nationals. That being said, he still managed to strike out three of them and should be able to last longer in this one vs. the Marlins. The Marlins are not striking out a ton vs. left-handed pitchers as they post a rate of just 21.0%, but their offense is also ranked in the middle of the pack vs. lefties, which tells me Fried should be able to last long enough to get six strikeouts in this one. He also managed to strike out eight Phillies in his first start, so the upside is certainly there.
Pablo Lopez has 10 strikeouts through his first 11 2/3 innings pitched. In his last start, he mowed down six St. Louis Cardinals across 6 2/3 innings pitched. This is a Braves lineup that is potent, but has a lot of swing and miss in it as noted by their K rate of 25.3% vs. right-handed pitching. They have not gotten as hot as they are capable of yet as their wRC+ mark is just 78. This could be the perfect time to get Pablo in over the total.
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