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Welcome to MLB Opening Week! It was a long offseason, but we have finally reached the beginning of the MLB season. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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A couple games we can look at today include the Royals at Indians and Twins at Tigers.
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Royals @ Indians
Shane Bieber more than 7.5 strikeouts and Jakob Junis less than 4.5 strikeouts
Quite frankly, anything under double-digits is probably too low for Shane Bieber. He labored a bit early in his debut against the Tigers, but still managed to walk away with 12 strikeouts in six innings pitched. He will be facing a Royals team that is posting a 24% K rate vs. right-handed pitching. Bieber also struck out 25 Royals in just 12 IP in 2020 and has a 28% K rate vs. the current Royals roster.
Jakob Junis will likely not go deep in this one and I think his prop may be set too high here. He threw an inning of relief on both Saturday and Sunday, so it is unlikely we see him for long in this one. Aside from this, the Indians are only posting a 15% K rate vs. right-handed pitching to begin the season, which ranks second-best in all of baseball. The less than certainly feels like a safe play here.
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Twins @ Tigers
More or Less Contest
Matthew Boyd less than 5.5 strikeouts and Kenta Maeda more than 5.5 strikeouts
Boyd had a solid first start against the Indians on Opening Day but still only managed to strike out two batters. He also struggled with control as he walked four hitters. This is where he could get into trouble vs. the Twins. The Twins are also posting a solid .802 OPS vs. lefties to begin the season, which ranks them in the top half of baseball. Boyd will get some strikeouts in this one as the Twins are also posting a 32% K rate vs. left-handers to begin the season, but having him get over 5.5 seems like a stretch in this one.
Maeda should be able to get to six strikeouts in this game. In his first start, Maeda struck out four Brewers across 4 1/3 IP. He should be able to go deeper in this one and take advantage of a Tigers' team that is striking out at a rate of nearly 26% vs. right-handed pitching so far this season.
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