RADIO
It's always an interesting day in daily fantasy sports when the best in the business is on the mound. Do you join the masses and start Kershaw so you are not left in the dust when he pitches yet another gem? Or do you separate yourself with a courageous contrarian play that will leave you looking like a genius the next morning? That decision is yours to make. But I will still assist in your decision by giving you strong alternative picks and picks that you should avoid, to ensure that you find yourself in the green tonight, whether you pay up for Kershaw or not.
In this article, I’ll be providing you with the top starting pitcher streamers for daily fantasy baseball (DFS) and for seasonal leagues for 5/29/16. These streamers will range from high-priced / high-ownership options to low-priced / low-ownership options, and will be sleepers and value picks for your cash games and GPPs on DraftKings and FanDuel, and also for seasonal leagues with daily lineups.
There'll be three main sections of this article: our Pitcher Matchups Tool’s top plays, my value plays, and pitchers to fade. I highly recommend you check out the Daily Pitcher Matchups Ratings tool - it's an extremely useful tool for daily fantasy or seasonal streaming for finding the diamonds in the rough. Anyways, let's get rowdy.
Daily Pitcher Matchup Ratings Tool Top Plays
Clayton Kershaw, LAD versus New York Mets
FanDuel: $13,300/ DraftKings: $13,900
I can make this really simple. The best starting pitcher in the league, who owns a SIERA below 2.00 and a K/9 above 10.00, is facing off against an offense that ranks 26th in runs scored against LHP. The guy has more wins than issued walks on the season.
A little more than two weeks ago, Kershaw hurled a complete game shutout against the Mets, striking out 13. Pay up in cash games, it doesn't get any safer than this.
Rich Hill, OAK versus Detroit Tigers
FanDuel: $9,600/ DraftKings: $10,500
Hill's beautiful 2.18 ERA is a bit better than he has actually been pitching, evident by his 3.63 xFIP, but the strikeouts don't lie. He carries a 10.14 K/9 into his match-up against the Tigers, who have been surprisingly unimpressive against southpaws this season, ranking 24th in runs scored versus LHP. Hill also gets a win-probability boost thanks to Mike Pelfrey (0-4, 5.55 ERA) taking the mound for the visiting team.
On April 26th, Hill blanked the Tigers for seven innings, earning the W. He racked up eight strikeouts without issuing any free passes. If you aren't content with the offensive choices available after paying for Kershaw, Hill makes for a nice alternative option that will save you over $3,000.
Stephen Strasburg, WSH versus St. Louis Cardinals
FanDuel: $12,000/ DraftKings: $12,600
Only Jose Fernandez has had more success with the strikeout pitch than Strasburg this season. Stras has rang up 86 batters in 67.2 IP, equating to 11.44 K/9, and has yet to take a loss. Today's bout with the Card's is no cake walk, as they rank second in OPS versus RHP, but there has been little any offense could do against him in 2016. During their last face-off, Strasburg struck out nine Cardinals in seven innings, allowing two runs.
Despite his success so far this season, today's match-up and prices don't make Strasburg a must-start. If you are going to spend $12,000 for a pitcher today, it might as well be for Kershaw.
JB’s Value Plays of the Day
Nathan Eovaldi, NYY versus Tampa Bay Rays
FanDuel: $8,100/ DraftKings: $9,800
Eovaldi's ERA is a bit inflated due to a HR/FB% that is double his career average, resulting in a respectable 3.33 xFIP. According to PITCHf/x, Eovaldi's fastball is being thrown at a career high speed in 2016, which could explain the career high strikeout and swing-and-miss numbers. Today he squares off with a Rays offense that ranks 28th in runs scored against RHP, and 26th in strikeouts.
The shellacking of Michael Pineda yesterday might scare others away from using Eovaldi today, which should keep his usage percentages down. But this match-up still bodes well for him, and the prices are low enough to warrant serious consideration in GPP games, especially on FanDuel.
Taijuan Walker, SEA versus Minnesota Twins
Fanduel: $9,000/ DraftKings: $9,300
Walker has not been overly impressive in his last three starts, but still owns a 2.72 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the season, and certainly has the talent to handle this Twins offense. Against RHP, the Twins currently rank 28th in strikeouts, and 24th in OPS. One of the only two teams to strikeout more than Minnesota, the Houston Astros, struck out 11 times in seven innings against Walker a month ago. Walker also gets the win-probability bump, facing off against Ricky Nolasco (1-3, 5.54 ERA).
DFS users have been picking on the Twins all season, so don't expect Walker to go unnoticed today. The expected high usage percentages make him a good cash game option not named Clayton Kershaw.
Nick Tropeano, LAA versus Houston Astros
FanDuel: $7,200/ DraftKings: $8,200
My GPP play of the day, Tropeano has pitched well in his last two outings. In 13.2 combined innings, he allowed only one run and struck out 10. The most important stat from these two outings is only three walks issued, which is great progress considering his 4.11 BB/9 this season. The strikeouts are no problem for the 25 year old, as his 12.6 SwStr% is top 10 in the league among qualified starters. If he can continue to be stingy with the free passes today, that strikeout ability will rack up plenty of fantasy points against the Astros, who have struck out more times than any other team versus RHP in 2016.
Starting Pitchers to Fade in Daily Fantasy Baseball
Francisco Liriano, PIT versus Texas Rangers
FanDuel: $9,700/ DraftKings: $7,000
After an excellent start on opening day, Liriano has been very inconsistent. Over his last three starts he has allowed eight runs to the Cubs in 4.2 IP, only struck out four Braves in 7 IP, and walked five Diamondbacks in 5.2 IP. For the season, he owns an uncharacteristic 5.17 FIP, and 5.16 BB/9. Today Liriano faces the second best run-scoring offense against LHP in Arlington. On FanDuel he is a solid hell-no with the price almost touching $10,000, but DraftKings made things interesting by dropping him way down the list today. I still want no part of him today, but wouldn't be completely opposed to taking a GPP flier on him on the second site.
Jake Odorizzi, TB versus New York Yankees
FanDuel: $7,900/ DraftKings: $7,400
Aside from two duds against Oakland and Boston (understandable), in which he allowed five runs in each, Odorizzi has been pretty much what Rays fans were expecting after a solid 2015 campaign. But today he faces a Yankees team that gave him fits last season, resulting in a 5.40 ERA after four starts, which included five HR. The Yanks have been a top ten offense over the last seven days in both runs and homers. I like the prices, but don't like this match-up one bit.
Johnny Cueto, SF versus Colorado Rockies
FanDuel: $9,900/ DraftKings; $10,300
This one is bold, considering Cueto has been fantastic this season, and shutout the Rockies for 8.1 innings earlier this month. But in that particular outing, he only struck out three batters, and allowed 11 fly balls and a season-high eight line drives. Also I would like to mention that this previous game was played in San Fran. Today Cueto pays a visit to Coors, and we all know if you serve up solid contact in Colorado, the box score can fill up quickly.
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