RADIO
RotoBallers – another week, another Monday, and another Tom Brady primetime game! Stop me if you've heard this before: the Patriots enter tonight looking to extend their league-best win streak as they look to take another step towards securing the #1 overall seed in the AFC. Though this seems to be a yearly tradition, here we are yet again as the Patriots go for nine straight in Miami.
Since their Week 9 bye week, New England's average margin of victory is 22 points, including a 35-17 win at Foxboro against the Dolphins. Seven different players have scored offensive touchdowns in that time, and Tom Brady is in the midst of a TD:INT ratio of 26:4 so far this year, having thrown for under 250 yards just twice. They'll be without superstar tight end Rob Gronkowski tonight, sitting out for a one-game suspension, but Chris Hogan is set to make his return. So yeah, you could say that things are clicking in Patriot land.
The Dolphins head into Monday night coming off their highest-scoring game of the season, but despite the 35-point output against a very good Broncos defense, a loss tonight would drop Miami to 5-8 and all but eliminated but playoff contention. Quarterback play continues to be average at best with Jay Cutler, though they seemed to maybe fine some respite in the running game with Kenyan Drake. Dolphins fans will just be hoping to keep it close tonight, but I don't see that happening for more than thirty minutes or so.
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New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Date and Start Time: Monday, December 11th at 8:30 p.m. EST
Game Spread: Patriots -11
Notables from Injury Report & Inactives:
- Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE) - Suspension - OUT
- Chris Hogan (WR, NE) - Shoulder - Questionable (expected to play)
- Dion Lewis (RB, NE) - Illness - Questionable (expected to play)
- Damien Williams (RB, MIA) - Shoulder - OUT
Offensive and Defensive Rankings (based on per game stats through Week 13):
| Patriots | Dolphins | |
| Passing Yards | 1st | 20th |
| Rushing Yards | 9th | 29th |
| Pass Defense | 29th | 14th |
| Run Defense | 24th | 20th |
Must Starts
Top Players That You Should Have In Your Lineup
Tom Brady (QB, NE)
Sure, Brady is coming off his worst week since the season opener against the Chiefs and just the second time this season that he hasn't thrown a touchdown pass, but do you really believe that he's going to put up two duds in a row? Me neither. Miami's pass defense is actually not bad, but the Patriots are averaging 33 points scored in the last four weeks, and that usually means good things for Tom Brady. He is (and might always be) a matchup-proof, elite QB1.
Brandin Cooks (WR, NE)
I think it's fair to say that Cooks has disappointed some fantasy owners this year, specifically those who grabbed him in the early-mid second round. Things have turned around though for Cooks, who started the season fairly inconsistent. Though he's coming off a two-catch game for 17 yards, he had exactly six catches in each of the previous three games. And with Gronk's suspension tonight, there may not be a larger beneficiary. You can put me down for something like six catches for 80 yards and a score tonight, but he's a must play regardless as the Patriots most reliable pass catcher this week.
Must Sits
Players To Avoid Putting In Your Lineup
Danny Amendola or Chris Hogan (WR, NE)
Amendola gets an obvious bump with no Gronk, but Hogan's return makes things a little more complicated. How much is Hogan going to play? He's the obvious second-best receiver behind Cooks, but is he going to play a good percentage of snaps? Is he going to be a decoy? Is Tom Brady going to look his way? You also factor in the always-present New England backfield into the passing game, but you see where I am going here. This is a situation I want to avoid in a (typical) playoff week until we see Hogan's usage. If you need to choose one tonight, go with him given potential upside, but just know that there's a chance he doesn't play a ton.
James White (RB, NE)
Even in full PPR leagues, White isn't someone that I feel comfortable rolling out right now with Burkhead's increased presence in New England. I keep referring to the last four games for the Patriots as they have been specifically hot within their larger win streak, but White has caught just eight passes total in that span. As someone who needs to be catching passes to be fantasy relevant, this obviously isn't a good thing. He gets a slight bump if Dion Lewis doesn't go tonight, but he's not somebody that you can trust otherwise right now.
DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)
Parker's drop off over the last few weeks has been stark. Five of his first six games played resulted in double digit fantasy weeks for PPR leagues, and the sixth was the week he went down with an ankle injury that kept him sidelined for three weeks. He even came back strong from the injury, but has reeled in just one catch for five yards in each of the last two weeks. His targets are way down too, with just three and four respectively in that time after no games with under eight outside of the week he got injured. Cutler has clearly focused his attention elsewhere, and so should you.
Solid Options/Sleepers
Which Players Will Have Solid Games and Which Could Surprise?
Solid Option - Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA)
Parker's drop-off has been particularly good for Landry, who's on pace to match his career high in receptions. He's already had a career-best six touchdowns in 2017, and he should be good for at least 5-6 catches against a weak Patriots secondary.
Solid Option - Rex Burkhead (RB, NE)
Approaching "must start" territory, Burkhead has become New England's secret weapon in the end zone. With five touchdowns over the last two games (on 30 total touches), he's impossible to sit right now in such a high-powered offense. He's a RB2 for now given lack of longevity, but he's a league-winning type of waiver wire pick up if you were so lucky.
Solid Option - Dion Lewis (RB, NE)
Assuming he actually plays tonight, Lewis hasn't carried the ball less than ten times since Week 5. His yards per carry has been a ridiculous 6.6 over the last three games, and he's caught six passes over that span too. His ceiling is handicapped because of Burkhead's red zone and goal line work, but Lewis should at least return low-end RB2 value.
Sleeper - Kenyan Drake (RB, MIA)
Finally, somebody in the Dolphins offense to get excited about. It remains to be seen if he can put together back-to-back performances, but Drake's 26 touches for 144 total yards and a touchdown last week was the best showing by a Miami running back all year. The game flow will obviously be a little bit different than their blowout win last week against the Broncos, but no Damien Williams means that Drake is option 1A and 1B out of the backfield.
