Monday Night Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Steelers vs Browns

Last week’s Monday night matchup between the Dolphins and Saints was as bad as advertised. Miami secured a 20-3 victory in New Orleans behind 198 yards and a touchdown with an interception from Tua Tagovailoa. Miami utilized a trio of running backs (Duke Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, and Myles Gaskin), but was able to generate just 85 rushing yards on 29 carries. Only Jaylen Waddle had a significant fantasy impact thanks to 10 receptions (on 12 targets) for 92 yards and a touchdown. Things weren’t much better for New Orleans for fantasy managers. Alvin Kamara provided the most fantasy upside for the Saints with 13 carries for 52 yards and two receptions for seven yards. While we get an important matchup for playoff seeding in the AFC this week, there is once again a possibility of a fantasy dud.

Cleveland will head to Pittsburgh this week in desperate need of a win to keep pace in the AFC playoff race after two consecutive losses. Baker Mayfield has struggled to justify a contract extension in Cleveland this season by putting together another mediocre passing campaign while navigating a variety of injures. Mayfield has started 13 games this season, completing 62% of his passes for 2,825 yards and 15 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. Nick Chubb has been the most productive running back for Cleveland thanks to his availability this year. Chubb has 207 carries for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns in 12 games this season. He’s also added 19 receptions on 23 targets for 172 yards and a score. Cleveland has just two receivers (Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper) with more than 50 targets this season. Just three players (Landry, Hooper, and David Njoku) have 30 receptions. No receiver in Cleveland has more than 500 receiving yards or three receiving touchdowns.

Things aren’t much different for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh is 2-4 since a Week 10 tie against the Detroit Lions. Veteran quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is likely playing his final games in the NFL and completing 65.2% of his passes for 3,373 yards and 20 touchdowns with eight interceptions. Najee Harris leads Pittsburgh’s backfield, accounting for 268 carries for 984 yards and six touchdowns in his rookie campaign. Diontae Johnson has continued his high-volume role in the passing game from seasons past. Johnson has 92 receptions on 144 targets for 1,079 yards and seven touchdowns this season. Chase Claypool hasn’t found the end zone as much as his rookie season, but still has 51 receptions (89 targets) for 806 yards and one score. Rookies Najee Harris (51 receptions, 87 targets, 422 yards, and three touchdowns) and tight end Pat Freiermuch (49 receptions, 64 targets, 422 yards, seven touchdowns) round out the top four for the Steelers’ passing attack in 2021.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

• Game time: Monday, January 3rd, 8:15 p.m. 
• Game line: Cleveland -3.5
• Game total: 41

Must Start

Nick Chubb (RB, CLE)

The Cleveland offense goes as Nick Chubb goes, making him a must-start every week. Since Week 13, Chubb is averaging 19 carries and 92 rushing yards per game. The veteran running back has two rushing touchdowns in his last three games while also adding seven receptions for 66 yards. Chubb has five 100-yard rushing games this year and has found the end zone in four of his last six games. Pittsburgh has struggled against running backs this season, allowing 21.8 fantasy points per game this season, the sixth most of any team this year.

Najee Harris (RB, PIT)

No running back in football has gotten more work than Najee Harris in his rookie season. While the results haven’t always been great, the rookie has shown flashes of the talent that made him a first-round pick despite having a below-average offensive line and an aging quarterback. Since Week 12, Harris is averaging 18 carries and five targets per game. He’s been able to turn that workload into an average of 86.8 total yards per game while adding two total touchdowns. Harris has a big upside in PPR leagues considering he has at least four targets in six of his last seven games.

Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)

Jarvis Landry has struggled to produce at the same level as 2020, but he’s still the leading receiver in Cleveland and is a PPR weapon. Landry has at least seven targets and four receptions in each of his last four games. During that stretch, he’s produced 233 receiving yards and a touchdown. Landry has only one game with more than five receptions and 100 receiving yards this season but could find room to operate against a Steelers secondary allowing 23.2 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Landry caught five of 10 targets for 65 yards in their first matchup.

Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)

A late touchdown was able to salvage Diontae Johnson’s fantasy week during Week 16’s blowout loss against Kansas City. However, the third-year receiver has one of the highest floors in fantasy football thanks to the volume created by his rapport with Ben Roethlisberger. Johnson is averaging 10.3 targets, 6.6 receptions, and 77.1 receiving yards per game this season. He’s also added seven receiving touchdowns on the year. Johnson has only one game with fewer than nine targets since Week 8. In their first matchup, Johnson caught six of 13 targets for 98 yards.

Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)

Pat Freiermuth was a reliable fantasy option once he took over the starting tight end position for the Pittsburgh Steelers. The rookie out of Penn State played at least 60% of the offensive snaps for the Steelers starting in Week 6 (except Week 15 when he left with a concussion). From Weeks 6 to 15, Freiermuth caught 38 of 51 targets for 322 yards and six touchdowns. During that stretch, he had just two games with fewer than four receptions and 30 receiving yards. The Browns have given up eight receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season.

Consider Sitting

Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)

Ben Roethlisberger has had flashes of fantasy production this season, but his days of a locked-in QB1 are seemingly far behind them. Roethlisberger threw for 308 yards and three touchdowns against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14. Since then, Roethlisberger has just 307 passing yards and one touchdown with one interception. Big Ben had 266 yards and a touchdown in his first matchup against Cleveland. The Browns are allowing just 17.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)

Baker Mayfield has continued to be an inconsistent quarterback option in his fourth NFL season. Mayfield is completing 62.4% of his passes and has just two games with more than 250 passing yards this season (none since Week 5). Mayfield also has five games with two touchdown passes, including the last two weeks. Unfortunately, Mayfield threw four interceptions in a two-point loss to the Packers last week. Mayfield had just 225 passing yards with no touchdowns or interceptions in his first matchup with the Steelers and is a low-end QB2 in the rematch.

Kareem Hunt (RB, CLE)

Kareem Hunt hasn’t played since Week 14 against the Baltimore Ravens due to a calf injury. There was speculation he could return this week, but he hasn’t practiced for the Browns yet. Even if he is surprisingly active this week, it is safe to fade him in his first game back from a serious injury that has a high recurrence rate.

Austin Hooper (TE, CLE)

Austin Hooper continues to have a minor role in Cleveland’s passing attack in 2021. Hooper gets a decent amount of volume in the passing game (seven games with at least five targets) but rarely produces huge games. Hooper has just three games with more than 30 receiving yards this season. The TE only has three receiving touchdowns this year and needs to find the end zone to have value at the tight end position.

Upside Plays

D'Ernest Johnson (RB, CLE)

With Kareem Hunt unlikely to play, D’Ernest Johnson retains his role in fantasy as a boom-or-bust FLEX player. Johnson has played at least 30% of the offensive snaps for Cleveland the last two weeks, carrying the ball five times for 56 yards and adding five receptions on six targets for 25 yards. Johnson is a true desperation play but has some explosiveness in the run game. Johnson gets enough work to score fantasy points but wouldn’t provide much value unless Nick Chubb was injured.

Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR, CLE)

Donovan Peoples-Jones has become Cleveland’s field stretcher since Odell Beckham Jr’s release in Week 9. Since then, the second-year receiver is averaging 6.2 targets per game. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated into many big weeks in fantasy. Peoples-Jones has just two games with more than two receptions and 40 receiving yards since he became a starter for the Browns. Additionally, there have been three games with less than 20 receiving yards. There can certainly be boom performances for Donovan Peoples-Jones, but he is little more than an all-or-nothing FLEX play.  

Chase Claypool (WR, PIT)

Chase Claypool has struggled to replicate his strong rookie season in Pittsburgh. Claypool has just one game with double-digit targets, one game with 100 receiving yards, and one touchdown reception so far in 2021. Since Pittsburgh’s Week 10 bye, Claypool is averaging 6.2 targets, 3.7 receptions, and 62.2 receiving yards per game. Claypool has shown the ability to have a massive game at any time, but the Steelers' offense just isn’t generating the big plays to make him a trustworthy fantasy asset this season.

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