Monday Night Football Matchup Analysis: Bengals vs Steelers

It is Week 15 and if you’re reading this you’re (probably) in your fantasy league semifinals. It has been a wild, winding road to get to this point during the fantasy season between a seemingly endless stream of high-profile injuries and COVID-related mishaps but here we are, just three weeks from the NFL playoffs. After a couple of solid Monday Night Football matchups, the football Gods have gifted us with this clunker thanks to injuries to Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon.

The Bengals come stumbling into this game as losers of nine straight games. While they were at least competitive and competent with Joe Burrow, their offense has been a mess ever since. Cincinnati has mustered only 40 points in their last four games (including the game Burrow went down with a brutal knee injury) and has looked lost on the offensive side of the ball. On the season, the Bengals are only averaging 319.8 yards per game, the fourth-lowest mark in the league this season. They are scoring just 18.8 points per game, a mark that ranks only above the Jets and the Giants. Cincinnati is a middle of the road defense, allowing 26 points and 382.3 yards per game.

On the other side of things, Pittsburgh comes in scuffling after an 11-0 start, dropping their last two games to the Washington Football Team and Buffalo Bills. Pittsburgh averages just 246.5 passing yards per game this season despite scoring 26.8 points a contest. Their 89.1 rushing yards per contest is the second-worst mark in the league this season. The strength of Pittsburgh’s team is clearly on defense, where they are starting to get healthy again after a rough midseason stretch. Pittsburgh allows the fewest points per game (18.2), the second-fewest passing yards per game (202.2), and the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game (100.9) in 2020. This game should easily be a blowout in favor of the Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals 

• Game time: Monday 12/21 @ 8:15 PM EST
• Game line: Pittsburgh -13.0
• Over/Under: 40

Must-Starts

Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)

Ben Roethlisberger has come down to Earth after an efficient start to the 2020 season. While he is still completing just over 65% of his passes in the last four games, he is averaging a modest 256.3 passing yards per contest with seven touchdowns and five interceptions. Since Week 10, Big Ben is averaging just 5.48 yards per attempt compared to 6.79 yards per attempt in the first nine weeks. Roethlisberger is a must-start in Week 15 thanks to a matchup against a weak Bengals secondary. Cincinnati is allowing just 18 fantasy points per game this season, but have given up 25 touchdowns while generating just nine interceptions. In their first contest, Ben threw for 333 yards and four touchdowns in a 36-10 win. He should be poised for another big game this game as well.

James Conner (RB, PIT) 

James Conner played a minor role in Week 10 against the Buffalo Bills while navigating a quadriceps injury, carrying the ball just 10 times for 18 yards and getting zero targets in the passing game. Conner played just 40% of the offensive snaps for the Steelers in that contest, his lowest total since the Week 1 game he left with an early injury. Conner has struggled to get going, in general, this season, totaling just 663 yards and five touchdowns on 155 carries (4.28 yards per attempt). Conner had a modest game in his first matchup against the Bengals, carrying the ball 13 times for 36 yards and adding two receptions for 12 yards in the game. The Bengals are allowing 19 fantasy points per game to running backs on the season and have given up 1,592 total yards and 10 total touchdowns to the position on the year.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, PIT)

Juju Smith-Schuster hasn’t been generating eye-popping statistics the past few weeks, but the target share has been there to suggest the potential for a big game. Since Week 11, Juju has been targeted a whopping 26 times and caught 21 passes. Unfortunately, that has resulted in just 120 yards and two touchdowns in those three games. Of the three pass catches the Steelers utilize, Juju ranks first in targets and touchdowns and second in receptions and yardage. He should be poised for a get-right game in Week 15. The Bengals have surrendered 2,068 yards and 15 touchdowns on the season resulting in a 23.4 points per game average to wideouts. Juju will likely avoid a rough matchup against William Jackson by operating in the slot. In his last game against the Bengals, Juju caught nine of 13 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown.

Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)

Diontae Johnson earns his spot on the must start list by virtue of his massive target share for Pittsburgh. Diontae has double-digit targets in six of his last eight games. He has under six receptions only twice since Week 7 and has failed to record at least 40 receiving yards only once in that time span. Diontae Johnson leaves points on the board since he functions as the third or fourth option in the red zone, but given his high reception floor, he is still able to score points in bunches. In his first matchup against the Bengals, Johnson erupted for six catches on 11 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown. He is a must-start in all scoring formats given his potential scoring upside.

Chase Claypool (WR, PIT)

Last but not least in the Steelers’ receiving corps is Chase Claypool. Claypool has been the least targeted perimeter player for Pittsburgh since their offensive slide, but still has 19 targets, 11 receptions, and 105 yards in that time. Claypool has been the most likely to have big games this season thanks to his rare blend of size and speed on the perimeter. Unfortunately, Claypool figures to see a steady diet of William Jackson in this contest which could limit his upside. In his Week 10 game against Cincinnati, Claypool only caught four of his 10 targets for 56 yards, but he found his way into the end zone twice to have a big fantasy day. He presents the lowest floor but arguably the highest ceiling of any of the Steelers’ wideouts this week.

Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN)

It has been a weird season of production for Tyler Boyd. After having extremely high-level production with Joe Burrow, Boyd’s ability to score fantasy points has seen ebbs and flows catching passes from Ryan Finley and Brandon Allen. Since ana nine reception, 85 yard game against the Washington Football Team in Week 11, Boyd has combined for nine receptions, 130 yards, and a touchdown in three contests (72 yards and the touchdown came on one reception against Miami). Despite their reputation as a stingy defense, the Steelers actually don’t rank far behind the Bengals in terms of fantasy scoring allowed to wide receivers on the season since teams have to throw the ball to try and keep up with them. Pittsburgh has allowed one more touchdown than Cincinnati this year (16) and is allowing 22.9 fantasy points to wide receivers on the year.

Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)

While Boyd’s production has resembled a roller coaster, Tee Higgins has provided a consistent floor as a fantasy producer. Higgins has at least eight targets in seven of his last 10 games. During that time, he has failed to record at least five receptions only once and has had at least 44 yards receiving in eight games. Higgins has struggled to find the end zone (only three touchdowns since Week 4), but in PPR leagues he is as good of a bet as any to get opportunities with questionable quarterback play. In his last matchup against the Steelers, Higgins erupted for seven receptions on nine targets for 115 yards and a touchdown.

Eric Ebron (TE, PIT)

Eric Ebron has seen his usage peak in recent weeks with Big Ben utilizing a check-down passing game for Pittsburgh. Since Week 11, Ebron has seen 27 targets, catching 16 passes for 152 yards. Ebron hasn’t found the end zone, but the high usage gives him an extremely high floor at tight end position that doesn’t feature much outside Travis Kelce and Darren Waller this season. Ebron still has a tendency to drop passes, but with his current target share, it is pretty irrelevant since Big Ben keeps going to him. The Bengals are the third-worst defense in fantasy this season against tight ends, giving up 10.1 points per game thanks to 867 receiving yards (32nd in the league) and seven touchdowns (24th in the league) in 2020.

Consider Sitting

Ryan Finley/Brandon Allen (QB, CIN)

At this point, it seems Brandon Allen is unlikely to play against the Steelers because of a lower-body injury suffered in Week 14’s game against the Cowboys. If that is the case, then expect Ryan Finley to get the start, which makes starting any of the Bengals’ wide receivers less palatable than usual. Even with Allen at the helm, we cannot exactly call the Bengals a high-flying offense. In his three starts, Allen has completed 55 of 84 passes for 506 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions. He has been able to get the ball to Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins fairly consistently, which has made them playable in recent weeks. If Finley is at the helm, there was enough of an underwhelming sample size in 2019 to give legitimate concern toward his ability to move the ball against the second-best defense against quarterbacks in fantasy football (14 points per game with 17 interceptions generated).

Giovani Bernard (RB, CIN)

It seems the Bengals have seen enough of Giovani Bernard in the 2020 season and are trying to discover if they have anything in their younger backs. Bernard has had single-digit carries in four of his last five games and hasn’t surpassed 35 rushing yards since Week 8. His role in the passing game has diminished too; Bernard hasn’t had more than three targets or eclipsed 20 receiving yards since Week 11. Bernard played in just 24% of the team’s offensive snaps against Dallas in a game with a negative game script which should have been his specialty. Bernard is an easy fade against a defense that is allowing just 13.7 points per week to running backs on the season.

Samaje Perine (RB, CIN)

Samaje Perine has seen an up and down role for the Bengals since Joe Mixon was knocked out with his foot injury earlier in the year. Perine has four games with at least five carries but also has four games with three or fewer carries. He also has a relatively consistent role in the passing game, getting at least a target in six games on the year. Unfortunately, his production isn’t anything to write home about as he has only eclipsed 50 total yards in one game this year. Perine carried the ball 10 times for 32 yards and added two receptions for nine yards against Dallas in Week 13 and logged 39% of the offensive snaps. He isn’t even worth a longshot spot on the most desperate fantasy teams.

Drew Sample (TE, CIN)

Drew Sample has seen some steady production in the last three weeks since Brandon Allen took over the quarterback position, catching 14 of his 16 targets for 110 yards in that span. Sample has ranked as the TE17 since Week 12 which is solid considering he is the fourth or fifth read on his own team. Sample is a hard pass this week against the Steelers since they have allowed just 496 yards and two touchdowns to tight ends in 2020, good for an average of 4.8 fantasy points per week.

Potential Sleepers

Benny Snell (RB, PIT)

If you wind up playing Benny Snell this week, you are already relying on a terrifying blend of desperation and blind luck. Snell doesn’t have much of a role when James Conner is healthy (he had 3 carries for 14 yards last week), but has functioned as the lead back in games he has missed. If you play Snell, you are either banking on Conner leaving the game with an injury or the Steelers getting such a big lead that they choose to rest him just two weeks before the playoffs.

Trayveon Williams (RB, CIN)

Trayveon Williams saw a steady workload in the blowout game against the Cowboys, tallying 12 carries for 49 yards while adding three receptions on three targets for 14 yards while logging 38% of the offensive snaps. Williams is a dart throw, but the Bengals could give him a heavier workload this week in a game where they are trailing to see if he can serve as the future heir apparent to Giovani Bernard as a change of pace back.

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