RADIO
In the first few rounds of any fantasy football draft, ADP rules. It's rare that anybody deviates too far from the expected norms and if they do, it's to reach a round on a player that is already considered among the elite. As they say, the first pick you make won't win your league but it could lose it.
The middle rounds are where diamonds are unearthed and league winners are found. Remember that Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel were usually taken in the fourth or fifth round last year. Surely there are players who fit this bill in the 2022 season that we as a community could be too low on. I am going to identify the mid-round players who I believe have the greatest chance of outperforming their ADP that I am targeting in nearly all my fantasy drafts this season.
There is no strict cutoff defining where the middle rounds begin and end. Most drafts run between 16-18 rounds, so I will look at players typically drafted from Round 6-11 in a 12-team league based on ADP consensus. To get an idea of how we value these players, check out our RotoBaller draft rankings.
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Allen Robinson, Los Angeles Rams
Yes, the number two receiver for Matthew Stafford and former Pro Bowler is available at pick 64.3 overall when averaged out across platforms. I get it - he was terrible last year and not just for fantasy. But was it him or the offense?
Over 40% of Allen Robinson's routes in '21 came on slants or curls
the @ChicagoBears only used those routes 20% of the time
& they ranked last in air yards on "fantasy friendly" routes@RamsNFL had the most...
Top 5 Undervalued WRs from @LordReebs:https://t.co/G2z22HlWQn
— Sharp Football Analysis (@SharpFBAnalysis) May 6, 2022
We have to give Robinson his share of blame too. It looked like he was giving half-effort on some routes and just biding time before he could leave Chicago. Now, he's gone and landed in the laps of the defending Super Bowl champs. Robinson immediately steps in as the WR2 behind Cooper Kupp and there's surprisingly little depth behind him. Robert Woods is gone, Odell Beckham is out for the year, Van Jefferson is hurt and may be limited or ruled out for Week 1, Tutu Atwell... is the next man up?
Before 2021, Robinson posted consecutive seasons of 1,100+ yards. He's healthy, motivated, happy, and tied to the best quarterback of his career by far. Expect a big target share for A-Rob and don't worry about Matt Stafford's elbow.
A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers
Just before entering the dreaded "dead zone" of running backs, you have the chance to claim a talented runner on a good offense that should increase its rushing output this season. He may not be a starter by definition, but Dillon isn't part of a committee, he's in a strict 50/50 timeshare with Aaron Jones.
The Green Bay backfield is the quintessential timeshare. Both Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon averaged basically the same amount of carries while Jones outpaced him in receptions.
| Rushing | Receiving | |||||
| Player | Att | Yds | TD | Rec | Yds | TD |
| AJ Dillon | 11 | 47.2 | 0.3 | 2 | 18.4 | 0.1 |
| Aaron Jones | 11.4 | 53.3 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 26.1 | 0.4 |
Dillon finished as the leading rusher since Aaron Jones missed two games but Jones averaged more yards per game. Jones was more valuable in fantasy, ending up as the RB11 for PPR leagues while Dillon was RB23. That explains the discrepancy in ADP, as Jones is selected in round three and Dillon in round 7 on average (12-team leagues).
Given the proximity of their overall stat lines, even if Jones ends up as the higher point-scorer, Dillon should come away as the better draft value.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
It finally happened last year - Zach Ertz was dealt to Arizona, paving the way for Goedert to be one of the top targets in Philly. Although he didn't necessarily "break out" according to expectations of fantasy managers, he was noticeably better and became one of the most productive fantasy tight ends through the second half of the season.
Final 11 games of the season, Mark Andrews had the highest Target Share of any TE at 27%.
The second highest target share at 25%:
Dallas Goedert
— Todd - DynastySflex (@DynastySFlex) August 31, 2022
From Week 7-17, Goedert averaged 4.1 receptions and 61.4 yards per game, ranking as the TE6 in PPR leagues. The only tight ends who scored more fantasy points than him in that span were: Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Darren Waller, and Rob Gronkowski.
A.J. Brown will definitely eat into some of those targets but the Eagles' offense should also pass far more than they did toward the end of last season, leaving plenty for their TE. Goedert has excelled in all efficiency markers as well. He was third among all tight ends with 7.1 YAC/R (yards after catch per reception) and number one in yards per route run. Goedert could end up as a top-performing TE yet won't cost an early-round pick.
Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens
As #fantasyfootball draft season comes to a close, I have the nagging feeling I'm not coming away with enough Rashod Bateman...
— Pierre Camus (@Roto_Chef) September 6, 2022
The Ravens are not only comfortable with Bateman as their top wideout, they didn't feel compelled to add anybody else to the WR room during the draft or free agency. That means he won't just see an increase over last year's targets, he'll be in a position to top the 146 TGT sent toward Marquise Brown last year.
The Ravens used to be a run-first offense but in 2021 their defense was atrocious and their top two running backs missed the season. Not much has changed. The defense saw small upgrades with draft pick Kyle Hamilton and free-agent Kyle Fuller but it's not like this will be a shutdown unit. J.K. Dobbins isn't ready for game action yet and Gus Edwards is on IR. With Lamar Jackson out to prove he deserves a contract in the neighborhood of Kyler Murray's, he will be sending plenty of passes Bateman's way.
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
The allure of nabbing an elite quarterback never sways me anymore. I know that a prolific passer will still be freely available by the time other teams are considering drafting a backup QB. That's when I nearly always turn to Derek Carr after pick 100.
Carr threw for a career-best 4,804 yards a season ago. That's remarkable considering his head coach resigned five weeks into the season, his top receiver was arrested seven weeks in, and his top target, Darren Waller, missed six games. Carr led the Raiders to a playoff berth anyway with four straight wins to finish the regular season before they ran into the Bengals.
Carr now heads into the 2022 season with a new receiver in tow, who just happens to be one of the best in the league over the past few years - Davante Adams. The yardage was already excellent but a bona fide red zone threat should help his low 3.7% TD% jump up and put him into the top-10 realm of fantasy QBs. SI's Albert Breer went so far as to predict an MVP award for Carr this year. I won't go quite that far but anytime I can get a season-long starter in Round 10 or beyond while stockpiling other positions early in the draft, I'm doing it.
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