RADIO
The Miami Dolphins have been active in free agency this offseason. By adding former Texans wide receiver Will Fuller to their offensive unit, Miami has strengthened quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's cast of weapons. The front office has made other key acquisitions as well, such as the signings of quarterback Jacoby Brissett and center Matt Skura.
However, one position that the Dolphins have neglected to upgrade is running back. Packers tailback Aaron Jones was linked to Miami early in the offseason, but the talented runner ultimately decided to remain with Green Bay. The only new addition to the running back room is veteran Malcolm Brown, which is great news for incumbent starter Myles Gaskin.
While it's possible the Dolphins add a running back in the NFL Draft, it's unlikely they will strike early at the position and there is a strong possibility that Gaskin remains the top option in the backfield head into 2021.
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A Solid Debut
Gaskin was just a seventh-round pick back in 2019, and he made little impact in his rookie season. However, in 2020, he took advantage of a muddled Dolphins backfield and produced at a high level. Gaskin finished as the RB28 in PPR leagues despite missing six games due to injuries and COVID-19.
Gaskin was remarkably consistent last season. In the 10 games he played, he finished as a top-12 RB three times and a top-24 RB eight times. He never finished worse than RB36 in any given week when he was healthy, and he had single-digit PPR points in just one outing. He also had the 16th-most evaded tackles among running backs despite having just the 29th-most carries, proving that he has the elusiveness required to be among the top backs in fantasy football.
His receiving skills were also noteworthy; Gaskin had multiple receptions in all 10 games, and he had at least four catches in seven of them. His 9.5 yards per reception were first among qualifying running backs, and his 2.08 yards per route run finished third. Gaskin may not be quite an Alvin Kamara or a Christian McCaffrey, but he is absolutely a talented receiving threat out of the backfield. That skillset is particularly valuable for managers in PPR leagues.
Another stat to keep in mind is his 42 red zone touches in 2020, the 13th-most among running backs. While he did end up with just five touchdowns, 34th most at his position, he certainly got enough work in scoring territory to expect positive regression in that department in 2021.
Averaging a stellar 16.4 PPR points per game, Gaskin would have finished as the RB5 had he played all 16 games with that pace. That would have put him in a tier with Aaron Jones and David Montgomery, two players who received significantly more attention. Gaskin's top-two performance in Week 16, in which he had 169 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, demonstrated that he has the ability to provide fantasy points in bunches.
Personnel Changes
After making two blockbuster trades last week, the Dolphins have a variety of options with the sixth pick in this year's draft. The possibility that would most benefit Gaskin would be if Miami selects Oregon tackle Penei Sewell. Sewell is a complete prospect, as he is incredible at both pass and run blocking. The Miami offense would certainly hum along nicely if they were able to acquire such a talented lineman, and Gaskin would be a key beneficiary.
There is definitely a possibility that the Dolphins add a new running back in this spring's draft with one of their other picks. Indeed, quite a few mock drafts have Miami selecting Alabama's Najee Harris or Clemson's Travis Etienne. However, based on the current roster, Gaskin is in great shape. There is no other running back on the team at the moment who would threaten Gaskin's lead role. Salvon Ahmed was less impressive than Gaskin last season, and Lynn Bowden Jr. is much more of a wide receiver than a running back. Gaskin's the top dog for now at least, which would mean RB1 upside if it holds.
The addition of Fuller and the recovery of Preston Williams may put a damper on Gaskin's stock, especially if young passer Tua Tagovailoa continues to develop well. If Miami's downfield threats reach their full potential, Gaskin's target share may decrease. This would almost certainly be the case should the Dolphins add a rookie like Ja'Marr Chase or Kyle Pitts. Still, Gaskin is skilled enough as a receiver to make do with slightly less volume.
The fact that Gaskin has only had one productive season is another reason for hesitance. A fairly small 10-game sample size means that expectations should be tempered just a little bit. Of course, this does not mean you should completely discount what we saw last year, which is the potential for Gaskin to make a big fantasy leap in 2021.
With such impressive per-game numbers, stellar receiving production, and great consistency, there is a very good chance that Gaskin finishes 2021 as at least an RB2. If Miami does not draft a running back early, Gaskin should absolutely be a target in your fantasy drafts. His receiving production was very underappreciated last season, and his upside is much higher than he is being given credit for. Keep in mind that last year's RB24, J.K. Dobbins, averaged just 11.2 fantasy points per game. That is five full points fewer than Gaskin averaged. The bar for being an RB2 may not be as high as you expect; he may be able to get there even if the injury bug strikes him again.
ADP Outlook
Gaskin is currently being drafted as the RB33 in fantasy drafts, but he should be going closer to the RB25 spot. As of now, Gaskin has much more value to fantasy managers than the likes of Kenyan Drake and Leonard Fournette, two backs with similar ADPs as him. Of course, the uncertainty due to the NFL Draft this spring is clear, but if you're drafting this early, don't wait to pull the trigger and add Gaskin to your squad. If Gaskin enters 2021 as the lead back, look out.
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