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Sunday afternoon features the seventh race of the Chase at Texas Motor Speedway. The Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 is raced on a 1.5-mile quad-oval track. Monkey Knife Fight has an extremely easy fantasy point system: 0.1 points for each lap led and then a set amount of points for their position (20 for 1st place, 19 for 2nd place, 18 for 3rd, and so on).
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We'll be helping you along every day and night where there's a race, by providing you with expert prop picks all NASCAR season long here at RotoBaller.
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Pick 1: Rapidfire Time Pick The Correct Drivers
As promised, the shots we are taking with RapidFire keep on continuing. This week at Texas Motor Speedway is no exception. One thing to expect is a lot of volatility. This NASCAR season will have tons of long-range implications when combined with what is coming with Next-Gen cars.
With this weekend's race starting the Round of 8, there is a different mindset to approach this. Think about it. There remain just four races in the 2021 NASCAR season. It is crazy to think we have just a handful of races left. Here are some pitfalls with this week's race.
The idea that Kyle Busch is getting 2.5 points on a track where he is historically very good seems insane. Hell, even Denny Hamlin is getting points against Chase Elliott for example. Did someone make Hendrick Motorsports the lightning rod on props? Hey, the question has to be asked. Now, Kyle Larson can buck almost any trend but 2.5 points is a lot here. With the potential for the persistence of the "alternator issue" for Hendrick, it may be okay to be hesitant about Larson and go with the younger Busch.
Then, there is Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin. This is a near-even matchup. Monkey Knife Fight rightfully has this one at a half-point for Elliott. It is razor-thin close. Yes, historical trends can again be bucked. Accidents happen. However, that pesky Denny Hamlin has won the opening legs of each playoff phase. No one is saying that the No. 11 could do it again but it is hard to completely discount it.
Last week, Elliott's car got smashed up good and the question is will it this week. Yes, NASCAR dropped the hammer with Kevin Harvick and Chase Elliott but is it over? That is one I am not touching. However, the No. 9 car has a bit too much risk where Hamlin has a little less. Also, Hamlin wants to cement a final-four appearance. The thought process is that this round could be more helpful to the No. 11 car.
So, it's a risky bet here on both fronts and a bet on the underdogs is worth a shot. If it feels like the pattern flip flops every week, one is not wrong.
The Sunday afternoon picks are Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin with the points!
RapidFire Picks: Chase Elliott (-2.5), Martin Truex Jr. (-1.5)
Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight
Pick 2: More or Less Fantasy Points (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Kyle Busch MORE 18.5 Fantasy Points, Kyle Larson LESS 20.5 Fantasy Points
This prop here finally bit us in the rear last week as Kyle Larson's alternator issue made it look good initially. Then, he raced the hell out of that No. 5 car to a win. Again, we will take a shot and gamble on the other Kyle this week.
Luck was not on our side last week but again, we try to take this on anyway. Kyle Busch has some more historical success here with two wins in the last three seasons at Texas. Busch has had some fewer issues at Texas. Also, Larson did not race here last season. That has to be kept in mind. However, Larson on these low-maintenance tracks has been good but is he 20.5 points good? That is questionable.
These point totals are enticing no doubt. There are 334 laps in all (unless there's overtime). The laps increase is nice but just because someone is at or near the pole does not make a ton of laps led automatic. We have seen racers on the pole just fade like crazy too often.
Take the MORE anyway for Busch especially because of the laps-led potential. His percentage is quite high on the Texas track. If he gets on a run late, lookout. The problem becomes Larson. What does one do here? The LESS is our choice but this will cause a lot of sweating.
Pick 2/2 Correctly to 2.5x Your Buy-in
Play the More or Less Contest Now on Monkey Knife Fight
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