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Hello once again everyone! We hit the FireKeepers Casino 400 from Michigan International Speedway this week and another edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Now, that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 40 points, 2nd is worth 39, 3rd is worth 38, and so on. Every lap led equals an extra 0.01 points. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Matt DiBenedetto Over 24.5 Points. This was again not an easy choice as Benedetto starts in fifth but could fall pretty fast on Sunday. The question is how much can or does he bounce back. Hopefully. DiBenedetto gets it together just enough to finish in the top-15. A 15th place result means 26 points which work for our purposes. The Wood Brothers Racing driver deserves a good bit more. He is capable of finishing well on this track with the 550HP build. After all, he did finish in the top five at Kansas which is like a mini-Michigan at 1.5 miles.
Denny Hamlin Over 33.5 Points. The waiting is at least over for Denny Hamlin. Despite no wins on the regular season so far, he has managed to clinch a spot in "The Chase". Hamlin had the win or a top-three finish last week in the grasp of his hands when Chase Briscoe ended his evening. Hamlin had led a bunch of laps in a row before overtime as well. The No. 11 car should bounce back well enough this week. Expect the Joe Gibbs Racing driver to take home a fifth or sixth-place result on Sunday as a few drivers go right on by him late. Take the over.
Kyle Busch Over 35.5 Points. The idea is great given the build and the Joe Gibbs Racing cars have looked better and better over the last several weeks. On the Michigan two-mile course, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch have both done very well. This year, Busch's build with the 550HP and downforce modifications has been excellent. He has six straight top-tens. That streak includes eight overall top ten results at the Michigan International Speedway. The younger Busch just has to finish in the top five. He has been basically between third and sixth in the last few 550 HP races. He has outperformed Kyle Larson three times in that span as well. Take the over.
Kyle Larson Over 38.5 Points. The good thing is the prop total is still solid. The likelihood that Larson ends up on the podium is high. The podium means at least 38 points which mean once again the over is in play. Consider that Larson has won five times and finished second several more times, the chances are high here. Now, the laps-led pool is a more robust 200 laps. Larson starts from the pole which should help him lead a few extra laps in of itself. The No. 5 car looked good last week, endured a tough break or two, and still finished third. This week, with more space, Larson should find room to get and stay near the front of the field.
Joey Logano. Over 32 Points. This one could end poorly or not. Logano has five top-tens and should have been a sixth has been excellent on these 1.5 to two-mile tracks. Michigan is no exception and the Team Penske driver knows it. He has won here before and has a solid average finish of 8. If Logano finishes at his average, then he wins the prop. It's that easy. The rationale is to keep things simple and Logano has a good record with this build. So, does Kevin Harvick. However, Logano knows how to face down the tough competition.
Some other drivers to look at:
Kyle Busch (over 29.5 points) -- Could very well finish around the top-ten again.
Ricky Stenhouse (over 23 points) -- Has top-15 potential here at the Michigan track along with a propensity to crash.
A.J. Almendinger (won last week) -- A long shot that finally came through.
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