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Hello once again everyone! We hit the Federated Auto Parts 400 from Richmond Motor Speedway this week and another edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Now, that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 40 points, 2nd is worth 39, 3rd is worth 38, and so on. Every lap led equals an extra 0.01 points. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Kyle Busch Under 35.5 Points. This was a pretty tough choice as the Joe Gibbs Racing driver simply races well at Richmond. He produces consistent results and has won twice in his last six tries at the 0.75-mile course. His average finish of 4.33 and six top tens also makes this exceedingly risky. Busch tends to lead quite a few laps but the good thing here is that the younger Busch does start in 15th position. Yes, he can quickly move up the field but there is the chance of crashing. Take the UNDER here as more of a contrarian pick than anything else.
Denny Hamlin Over 35.5 Points. The waiting is at least over for Denny Hamlin. The Chase has been kinder of late to Hamlin as he won his first race of the season at Darlington. Now, does he smell the blood and go for more? Also, the No. 11 car does have some impressive results at Richmond including four top ten results in his last six races. Hamlin has led 12.22 % of the laps in that span and nearly won the race twice. People may forget that Hamlin led a racer-high 207 laps in the Spring race. While he may not do that again, there is a chance he could lead a significant number of laps anyway. Take the OVER.
William Byron Under 31.5 Points. The idea is great given the build and that Byron is not one of the better drivers lately on this racecourse. He has finished outside of the top 20 three out of the last four times. To hit that under, Byron would have to end up 11th or worse. That is not unreasonable given his results. It is about a 50-50 coin flip as Byron did finish seventh in the Spring race. This is quite a dangerous pick but again his summer loop speeds have been slow. Take the under here.
Kyle Larson Over 34 Points. The good thing is the prop total is obscenely low. The likelihood that Larson ends up on the podium is high and watch him try to rack up some laps led points early and then come close again late. That is the No. 5 car in a nutshell. He wants to win no matter how little need there is to. That is just how Larson is wired. Normally, there is nothing wrong with that. Larson slingshotted his way to within 0.2 seconds of a victory last week. He nearly took out half of Darlington in the process. That willingness to win at all costs serves him well on the short track of Richmond. And again 34 points? Take the over as a free square.
Martin Truex Jr. Over 36 Points. This one could be interesting. Martin Truex Jr. is a slight favorite going into the Federated Auto Parts 400 on Saturday night. We do mean slight. Seven drivers have odds at +1000 or shorter including Truex Jr. That is why some of the props are just so low even for the "dominators". Truex Jr. has won two of the last six races at the Richmond track. His loop speeds are the fastest overall later in runs as well. Again, the average finish of 4.33 means more than 36 points. The math is good. Could he win? Yes. Does he finish in the top five with quite a few laps led? That is even more likely. Take that more!
Some other drivers to look at:
Christopher Bell (over 31 points) -- Could very well finish around the top five. High risk, however.
Aric Almirola (over 30.5 points) -- Will be quite close but could finish in the top-10.
Chris Buescher (No Line) -- Sorry everyone. He is not listed but should be.
Simply never forget. Never!
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