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Hello everyone once again! We continue the Fourth of July weekend as the Kwik Trip 250 beckons from Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin. This is the 18th 2022 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
Our partners at PrizePicks offer some of the best, and easiest to win, NASCAR DFS games in the industry. There are no large-field tournaments filled with sharks where you have to get lucky just to place. At PrizePicks, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the projections, and the guys at PrizePicks have worked hard to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money. With promo code 'BALLER' you can get a 100% match on your deposit up to $100.
PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where 1st nets 45 points, 2nd is worth 42, 3rd is worth 41, and so on. Every lap led NOW equals an extra 0.25 points. Every fastest clocked lap equals an extra 0.45 points. Laps led are 0.25 points per lap and place differential is plus or minus one point. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Martin Truex Jr. Under 41.5 Points. This is extremely volatile only because no one except the Truex Jr. crew and Truex truly know how his car is driving. However, he felt good enough, qualifying 15th, for Sunday afternoon's race in Wisconsin. The points do seem a bit low. He tends to run well but the problem is the road courses just have not been kind to Toyota cars as the races have gone along. The car gets loose, the car gets tight, etc. Those adjustments other teams make seem to cause more and more issues for the Joe Gibbs drivers in particular. Take the under and maybe with Denny Hamlin too.
Chase Elliott Over 50.5 Points. The choice is a risk here as Elliott starts from the pole. The hope is that he leads enough of the early portion then comes back later in the race to garner enough points. Again, the problem with road races is the lower amount of laps (62). This will be mentioned over and over again. Again, a few fast laps and laps led will add the points up quick enough for the Hendrick Motorsports Racing driver. Take the over with the #9 car who is finding ways to win again much like he did two years ago. It is more than just the six road wins in his last 14 appearances.
Ross Chastain Over 46.5 Points. This is the "TrackHouse Special" again Sunday. Chastain is fast on the road and like Daniel Suarez has won on the road once this year. The difference is Chastain's ability to be consistent. He finished seventh last year and could be poised for a top-five result. Starting 12th may help the No. 1 Chevy as place differential points may be just enough to get him over the hump on Sunday. It's a risk but a fun risk to take.
Tyler Reddick Under 34.5 Points. The arguably roughest prop may just be Tyler Reddick who started and ended well at Road America last year. His eighth-place finish turned some heads and he does start fourth on Sunday. His car is fast. Very fast. The No. 8 Chevy had some sectors faster than Kyle Larson and that is not easy to do on the road. It comes down to can Reddick stay out of trouble. Can Reddick avoid incidents and can his car remain mostly problem free? If it can, the over hits but the expectation is the car will have some issues later in the race. Ride the under.
William Byron Over 43.5 Points. This could prove to work on Sunday. The fact that Byron starts 29th is a big help here considering his car had some issues during qualifying. If those problems are adjusted well enough, his car easily can be a second better over his qualifying effort. That would put him in the top-ten with ease and maybe even higher. That place differential alone along with around 30 points puts him closer to 50 PrizePick points which easily trumps the over. This could be a simple backdoor pick to accumulate another "leg".
Some Other Drivers to Look At
Christopher Bell (Over 40.5 points) -- Christopher Bell beginning 16th may aid Bell more than any other driver. He knows the Wisconsin course well and has enjoyed success. He ended up in second last year and might have had a shot at the victory if the race was another 5-8 laps longer. Yes, the Toyota's have been notoriously slower on road courses but Bell has been more consistent on these courses. The Over is worth a shot where many would not consider the possibility.
Brad Keselowski (Over 23.5 points) -- Expect the unexpected I guess. Keselowski starts 11th like Aric Almirola did last week. If the RFK Racing driver has anything left in the tank late in the race, he could gain back some of the positions he inevitably loses. A top-13 result gets him the Over with a couple of points to spare. That is doable considering the Ford driver wound up 13th in last year's race.
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