RADIO
Hello everyone once again! We continue the July chaos as the Quaker State 400 comes to us from Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton, Georgia. This is the 19th 2022 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where first nets 45 points, second is worth 42, third is worth 41, and so on. Every lap led NOW equals an extra 0.25 points. Every fastest clocked lap equals an extra 0.45 points. Laps led are 0.25 points per lap and place differential is plus or minus one point. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Denny Hamlin. Over 42.5 Points. This is extremely volatile only because how well can Hamlin run on the summer version of this track. However, the rain out of practice and qualifying helped some. Hamlin gets to start 16th where maybe he would have ended up in the top-10. That is a big benefit to the Joe Gibbs Racing driver. Hamlin is a bit hit or miss but he can finish in the top-five or completely tank out. Stage wise he has ran well enough which has to be kept in mind. If he can stay out of trouble, the over is a good bet.
Kyle Busch Over 45.5 Points. The choice is a risk here as Busch starts back at 19th. The hope is that he leads enough of the later portion then racks up enough points. Again, the problem with this hybrid Atlanta course is the increased chance of attrition. This will be mentioned over and over again. Again, a few fast laps and laps led will add the points up quick enough for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver. Take the over with the #18 car who finds ways to contend at Atlanta much like his brother, Kurt, who is another solid pick for the over (40.5 - starts 21st).
Brad Keselowski Under 46.5 Points. This is the RFK Racing risk of risks. Keselowski starts 31st and despite some positive history, does Keselowski rise up from 31st enough to rack up the points needed? That is the burning question. He did win once in his last five and has several top-five and top-10s. However, this is just not the same race car. Taking the under is not an easy choice but one worth taking on Sunday.
Michael McDowell Under 26.5 Points. The danger keeps adding up rapidly on Sunday as McDowell could benefit from a potential shorter race. If rain wreaks havoc with the race, that will alter the dynamics dramatically. The Ford driver will need that and a little bit of luck honestly. McDowell and Atlanta Motor Speedway have not been the best of friends as historically, top-ten results have alluded him. Even though Atlanta is an intermediate that behaves somewhat like a super speedway, that has not aided McDowell. Take the under here.
Bubba Wallace Under 54.5 Points. This could prove to work on Sunday. The idea that Wallace, given his pit and car issues, could accumulate more than 55 points seems crazy. Yes, we could be proven wrong. Last week, Tyler Reddick avoided the normal issues that plagued him on road courses and won the whole damn thing. He looked much better in practice and qualifying. This week, we have no such benefit. Wallace has results but even Atlanta is a wild card. It is why picking the under here is a prudent option. 54.5 is just too high a point total.
Some Other Drivers to Look At
Joey Logano (Under 42.5 points) -- Joey Logano beginning 17th may aid other drivers more than Logano. He knows he does not fare all that well at Atlanta honestly. The problem with the Ford is well documented later in races. As much as Logano could jump into the top-10. Even that does not mean an automatic 42.5 points. That is why we still choose the under for the No. 22 car on Sunday. It could be close.
Kyle Larson (Over 29.5 points) -- Expect the unexpected I guess. Larson might be able to get the over just by leading enough laps. Consider that he has led more than a third of the laps ran at Atlanta over the past five appearances. If he can stay in the top-10 along with those fastest laps and laps led, that may just be enough. This is far from an easy pick. Keep that in mind as the No. 5 Hendricks Motorsports Chevy has not driven like we are accustomed to seeing lately.
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