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Sunday features the O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 from Daytona. Chase Elliott, Michael McDowell, Austin Dillon, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick will make up the top five to start the race. Monkey Knife Fight has an extremely easy fantasy point system: 0.1 points for each lap led and then a set amount of points for their position (20 for 1st place, 19 for 2nd place, 18 for 3rd, and so on).
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Pick 1: More or Less Fantasy Points (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: AJ Almendinger OVER 13.5 Fantasy Points and Kevin Harvick OVER 12.5 Fantasy Points
Almendinger and Harvick are projected to be two of the higher fantasy point producers on Sunday and lucky for us, we can bet the over on both of them.
Almendinger may not have the greatest odds to win the race but he can pile up some points. Starting in 34th place gives him an excellent chance to rack up some points late due to place differential. If he can get to the front half or so, a top 10 even 15 finish would put Almendinger easily up and over that reasonable threshold of 13.5 points.
Harvick is also set at a very low point total of 12.5. He starts at 5th which is an excellent position for him. If the driver can get up to the front early, maybe he leads enough laps to easily get a bit of a bonus boost. A top-15 finish would go a long long way for him to get to that total of 12.5 which just seems a little low.
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Pick 2: More or Less Fantasy Points (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Chase Elliott OVER 19.5 Fantasy Points, Martin Truex Jr. UNDER 17.5 Fantasy Points
This prop gives us an excellent chance to be a bit more aggressive. With the drivers that MNF offers and no qualifying, finding a few individual props that you are confident about and using them in multiple contests seems to be the way to attack a race.
As mentioned above, Elliott is the top driver on Sunday. The fact that we can take the over on him is because he is likely to lead a lot of laps (could lead around half of them). Also, Elliott has the highest likelihood of winning this road course. He is one of the few that has enjoyed the tweaks to the new chicane.
As for Truex Jr., taking the under seems to be the sharper side when taking this prop as a whole into consideration. If Elliott can hit the over on fantasy points, there is a really good chance he will have to lead a good chunk of laps. At only 249 total laps, combined with starting in the middle of the pack may cause problems for Truex Jr. Also, projections for Truex Jr. do not look quite as well. There are a few too many drivers above him which could hurt place differential potential. Finally, Elliott is too dominant in these courses. Barring a wreck, this may be one of the best props of the weekend on Monkey Knife Fight.
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