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Saturday afternoon features the Pocono Organics CBD 325 from Pocono Raceway. Monkey Knife Fight has an extremely easy fantasy point system: 0.1 points for each lap led and then a set amount of points for their position (20 for 1st place, 19 for 2nd place, 18 for 3rd, and so on).
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Pick 1: More or Less Fantasy Points (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: William Byron LESS 18.5 Fantasy Points and Kyle Larson MORE 20.5 Fantasy Points
Byron and Larson are expected to be two of the better fantasy point producers at Pocono on Saturday and we are fortunate to have both leading off here but...
For a driver like William Byron, this may be more of a challenge. He has been good in these types of races and quite consistent but lately, the Hendrick Motorsports Racing driver has been a bit sluggish at times. Byron has four top-ten finishes in six races at Pocono but is that enough points when it comes to Monkey Knife Fight? Consider, that he has led less than 4% of the laps. If one does the math, that is a maximum of six laps led. Basically, does one think Byron will finish third or better on Saturday? That is the question. Byron has not led a single lap in the last three starts at Pocono. Combine that with the outside the podium average finish, take the LESS.
Kyle Larson is on a historic run with four straight wins and three runner-up finishes over the last seven races. With fewer laps comes greater risk. The 2.5-mile track means barring overtime, this will be a 130-lap race. Larson is again on the pole, however, so expect a good number of laps led. Last week, it was 264 in Nashville. His laps led percentage was 81.8% at Charlotte and 88% at Nashville. That is ridiculous. If he comes anywhere close to that this week, this translates to about 110 laps or so. That range means he could potentially pick up as many as 10.5 to 11.5 points. That is a lot. Even if it is less, his probability of finishing 1st or 2nd is very high. Either way, take the MORE even at 20.5 points.
This all boils down to who adjust bests to the "Tricky Triangle" and Larson has the speed and knowledge to win again.
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Pick 2: More or Less Fantasy Points (2/2)
Recommended Prop Pick: Chase Elliott MORE 16.5 Fantasy Points, Martin Truex Jr. LESS 16.5 Fantasy Points
This prop is a nasty one because of how Truex Jr. has been racing of late. He can win at Pocono but just has not shown quite enough lately to even hit his prop. Elliott, on the other hand, is just beyond ticked after getting disqualified last week at Nashville for five loose lug nuts.
Chase Elliott starts 29th this week after the disqualification from last week. This means he will be able to get a good run up the field. The Hendrick Motorsports driver had finished no worse than seventh in his last six races coming into last week. He was in an excellent position to do it again obviously. Elliott may even be able to sneak in and lead a few laps too. This is the kind of race where driver averages plus previous trends figure prominently. Elliott has four top-ten finishes in his last six appearances at Pocono. Plus, Hendrick cars have been the gold standard over most of the last two months. There is some wiggle room here to take the MORE.
These point totals are interesting with Martin Truex Jr. He could wind up in the top three or wind up outside the top six or seven again. It just is hard to consider Truex Jr. for the MORE here given he has finished outside the top ten in three straight non-road races. There have been a variety of issues but the bottom line is that the No. 19 car just has not had the speed and lift to stay in the grooves as needed. NASCAR did spray the Pocono track down for a second groove (low or high option) but that may not be enough for Truex Jr. The chances he leads a lap on Saturday are smaller than ever. Take the LESS as he likely finishes just outside the top-five.
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